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Navigating Economic Tides: Interest Rates & Commercial Real Estate
Last month, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced it would cut interest rates for the first time since 2019, bringing the deposit rate down to 3.75%. This decision came following Eurozone inflation declining from its 10.6% peak in 2022 to 2.5% in June. But what does this mean for the European commercial real estate market? Inflation is cooling The rate cut is an indicator that inflation is on track to reach the ECB’s target of 2%, which is its desired level for price stability. Investors are hopeful that more stability in the market will further narrow the bid-ask spread between buyers and sellers, helping boost transaction volume. The rate cut will also lower borrowing costs for some investors and encourage more bank lending, increasing liquidity in the market and encouraging those on the sidelines to start deploying capital into new and existing assets. Still a muted impact Despite the positive implications, most real estate professionals expect the impact of the cut will be muted. While it’s a first step in reducing borrowing costs, there is not a universal consensus as to how the ECB will view future rate decisions. In its July meeting, the ECB decided to keep rates stable. A key issue remaining for the commercial real estate industry is the refinancing risk for maturing loans. While the cut will likely help some borrowers at the margin, it is not expected to have a significant impact on the pressures facing those needing to refinance. Additionally, cutting rates too quickly may not be ideal for some European economies. If inflation climbs back up, the ECB may have to reverse course and increase rates again, causing further volatility in the market. It is also important to consider the divergence between the ECB and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s own decision to hold rates steady for now. This could impact the Euro-U.S. Dollar exchange rate, which feeds into inflation via the prices for imported goods and services. Final thoughts While the ECB’s decision has garnered a lot of attention, we believe the more important factor is long-term borrowing costs. Real estate investors typically do not borrow on a short-term basis, but rather on a 5- or 7-year fixed rate basis. In this context, SWAP rates often matter more than the ECB’s (short term) deposit rate. As a result, we do not see this decision having a significant impact on the real estate investment market at this point in time. Investors should remain focused on their long-term strategy and direct their attention to factors within their control like quality underwriting, timely execution and capitalizing on opportunities when they arise.
Keeping Up with Industrial in a ‘Wildcard’ Year
Uncertainty around interest rates, slowed transactional volumes, and a future of unknowns has left investors in the industrial sector watching trends closely. “This year has been a bit of a wildcard,” says Jason Patterson, senior vice president of investments at W. P. Carey. “People constantly speculate about what the future holds regarding interest rates, and we also saw a bit of softening on the lease demand side at the end of 2023.” As uncertainty persists, understanding a few key trends can help the industrial sector track what’s next as it moves closer to a new normal. Cost of Capital Challenges Persist As 2024 began, forecasts predicted multiple interest rate cuts; however, the Fed has held rates unchanged to date. Recently, it adjusted the previous forecast from three expected rate cuts in 2024 to one, against the backdrop of persistent inflationary concerns. Volatility around rates has also led to investor hesitancy in making long-term commitments, further impacting transaction volumes. “There is also a long and continuous trend toward e-commerce,” says Patterson. “In the near term, there has been a bit of volatility due to overbuilding in certain markets, and there is a bit more vacancy that needs to be absorbed. These shorter blips are relative to what seems to be a long-term trend toward higher value in industrial real estate.” Despite ongoing challenges, opportunities still exist for the industrial market, and understanding some existing tailwinds can help investors capitalize on these. Shift to Onshoring Onshoring is a continued tailwind for the industrial sector, especially on the manufacturing side according to Patterson. “It seems there is bipartisan agreement around a movement to onshore, as sentiments trend toward increased American manufacturing.” Upticks in high-tech chip manufacturing and transitioning the auto fleet to electric are also drivers of long-term industrial demand, says Patterson. While electric cars accounted for only 2% of vehicles in 2018, that number jumped to roughly 18% of all vehicles sold in 2023. A push toward more sustainable vehicle technologies could further drive long-term industrial demand, but Patterson cautions that continued growth could depend on the outcome of the election. Strategic Positioning and Access to Capital When operating in a market with many unknowns, a good place to start is focusing on what’s within your control, suggests Patterson. “Factors such as interest rates are out of the hands of most folks,” says Patterson. “We focus on sticking to our competitive advantage, which is underwriting sub-investment-grade long-term lease opportunities.” Agility is also key, as is working with partners who can support the market’s need for increased flexibility. According to Patterson, “This is a time when having a reputation for strong performance and access to capital is very valuable. At W. P. Carey, we are well positioned to execute with significant liquidity and capital, enabling us to be nimble in the current environment.”
The Power of REITs
Inflation, interest rate volatility and market dynamics have shaken the foundations of standard investment models. As a result, investors are looking for avenues that promise long-term growth and security. Investing in Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) has gained considerable attention, particularly because REITs have a unique blend of income generation, diversification and stability. So, what exactly are REITs, and why should investors consider them? What is a REIT? A REIT is a specialized company that owns, operates or finances income-producing real estate assets, including commercial and residential properties, hotels, healthcare facilities, industrial spaces and more. REITs were created by the U.S. Congress in 1960 to allow individual investors to access the benefits of real estate investment once reserved for institutions and wealthy individuals. One of the key distinguishing features of a REIT is its tax structure. A REIT must meet the following IRS requirements: Income Distribution: Distribute at least 90% of taxable income to shareholders as dividends. Asset Composition: At least 75% of assets must be invested in real estate, cash or U.S. Treasuries. Shareholder Requirements: Must have a minimum of 100 shareholders and no more than 50% of its shares can be held by five or fewer individuals during the last half of the taxable year. Types of REITs There are three main REIT types, each with different specializations: Equity REITs: Own, manage and develop income-generating properties (e.g., industrial, retail or warehouse facilities). Mortgage REITs: Invest in or originate mortgage loans and mortgage-backed securities, often borrowing money at lower short-term rates and investing in higher-yielding mortgage assets. Hybrid REITs: Combine features of both equity and mortgage REITs. Benefits of Investing in a REIT REITs have gained significant popularity among investors in recent years, and for good reason. They offer a range of potential advantages, including: Accessibility: Offer access to the real estate market with a lower initial investment. Diversification: Enable investors to diversify investments across different properties in various real estate sectors and geographic locations. Steady Income Stream: Can provide reliable income due to requirement to distribute 90% of their taxable income to shareholders as dividends. Liquidity: Publicly traded REITs offer more flexibility as investors can quickly buy or sell shares on the stock exchange. Professional Management: Typically have a management team of experienced real estate professionals who leverage their expertise in portfolio management to optimize property performance. Portfolio Growth Potential: Offer portfolio growth potential from property appreciation and higher rental income. Tax Advantages: Provide a tax-efficient investment option, with dividends often taxed at lower rates than ordinary income, allowing investors to grow their wealth more efficiently. Why Should Individuals Invest Now? REITs offer investors a unique opportunity to gain exposure to the real estate market without the burden of property ownership and can provide steady income streams and the potential for long-term capital appreciation. Their comparatively low correlation with other assets also makes them an excellent portfolio diversifier, which can help reduce overall portfolio risk. As a result, REITs may be a valuable addition to an investment portfolio for individuals seeking steady income, diversification or a combination of both.
‘We’re Bullish On Net Lease Retail’
Investors are flocking to the net lease sector anew as the Fed pauses its rate actions and cap rates stabilize, W. P. Carey’s Michael Fitzgerald told GlobeSt. GlobeSt's Holly Amaya spoke with Fitzgerald at ICSC Las Vegas about the state of retail net lease and what has changed in the sector from last year. In this video, you’ll learn: Why he continues to be bullish on net lease retail, What an increase in cap rates has meant for investment, and How the sector will fare in 2024 and beyond. Watch now An interview with Michael Fitzgerald, W. P. Carey, and Holly Amaya, GlobeSt.com.
Countdown to ICSC Las Vegas
ICSC Las Vegas, one of the largest tradeshows for the retail industry, is on the horizon with an expected 30,000 attendees eager to network and reconnect face-to-face with industry leaders and peers. After a somewhat sluggish 2023, attendees will be looking to the conference to shed some light on the retail landscape and offer insights on new trends and opportunities within the sector. Consumer spending, retail vacancies and sale-leaseback activity will be among the most pressing topics discussed at the show. Here's an overview of each: Consumer spending remains steady Despite inflationary concerns, consumer spending has remained steady over the past year, as core retail sales, excluding gasoline, food service and auto vehicle purchases, increased by 3.3% at the end of 2023. As a result, demand for retail space has remained strong and the market is starting to see in uptick in new developer-built retail locations coming online. W. P. Carey has completed several deals that align with this trend – for example, the acquisition of 22 recently built and to-be-completed car wash facilities across the U.S., leased to Tidal Wave Auto Spa, a prominent car wash operator. With interest rates projected to decrease in late 2024, the market will likely continue to see a ramp up in new development over the coming months. Retail vacancies at record lows Strong demand for retail space has resulted in record-low vacancy rates, with total retail vacancy reaching 4.2% at the end of 2023. Low vacancy rates are a positive sign for investors like W. P. Carey as it provides greater confidence in long-term leases and the ability to re-lease vacant buildings if the need arises. However, it also means more competition for less space which is pushing retail rents significantly higher. This makes it more expensive for retailers looking to expand and acquire new space, which in turn increases operational costs. Sale-leaseback activity picks up With rents rising significantly, retailers – particularly those looking to grow their real estate footprints – will be seeking new ways to access capital. This will likely contribute to greater demand for sale-leasebacks, where a retailer sells its real estate to an investor (like W. P. Carey) for cash and simultaneously enters into a long-term lease. This is a valuable business decision for most retail companies because owning real estate can serve as a drag on their balance sheet. By unlocking the value of their real estate through a sale-leaseback, retailers can reinvest proceeds into their core competencies, leading to better overall returns and long-term growth.
Navigating Net Lease Retail
Rising interest rates, increased cap rates, and sluggish deal activity created changes in the retail market over the past couple of years. Indeed, the bid-ask spread left many retail net lease deals stuck in negotiations. “There was a time when buyers and sellers found themselves pretty far apart, trying to find a way to meet in the middle,” says Michael Fitzgerald, executive director and head of US retail at W. P. Carey. “During 2023, we saw volume slowdowns of traditionally marketed sale-leaseback deals, as some sectors experienced 50, 75, or even 80 basis point increases in cap rates.” However, at the start of 2024, Fitzgerald notes that he’s seen a stable flow of developer-fueled deals and a higher demand for liquidity. As the market progresses into 2024 and beyond, understanding its direction can help investors make more strategic decisions. Low vacancy rates, creating new opportunities A recent report found that retail vacancy rates are at their lowest level in two decades, as rents continue to rise. The report compared 390 retail marketers across the United States and found that the national retail vacancy rate sat at just 4%. According to Fitzgerald, low vacancy rates are a positive sign that provides confidence in long-term leases and the ability to quickly replace tenants. “Let’s say a fitness operator signs a 20-year lease,” says Fitzgerald. “If retail vacancies are low, that’s a positive for us if we need to re-tenant, as we can likely replace them with a new tenant at or above the original price without compromising our income stream.” He explains that W. P. Carey typically focuses on finding deals in markets with growing rents, such as Phoenix, versus smaller and less vibrant markets. “When you get into underwriting situations where vacancy rates are low, it often allows us to get more aggressive with the cap rate and other deal terms,” says Fitzgerald. Looking into 2025 and beyond Another factor that could contribute to an uptick in activity is merger and acquisition deals. An increase in M&A typically corresponds to an uptick in sale-leaseback activity, as firms leverage proceeds as part of the capital stack for new acquisitions. Overall, Fitzgerald remains optimistic about the coming months. “I think the retail market will continue to be strong because there’s always compelling fundamental reasons why retailers want to sell their real estate rather than hold it,” says Fitzgerald. He explains that it comes down to retailers not being real estate companies. Businesses can generate better returns for investors by investing in their core competencies, ie. running retail operations, and often find holding onto real estate is a drag on their cash and liquidity. As a result, he predicts continued demand from retailers for creative ways to access that liquidity – such as sale-leasebacks.
Going Green for Earth Day
Real estate is one of the biggest CO2 emitters, with buildings accounting for 30-34% of global energy consumption. This makes it a critical sector in the global effort to reduce carbon emissions and combat climate change. Fortunately, there are many solutions available to help reduce the carbon footprint of real estate, while also reducing energy costs, improving building safety and boosting operational efficiency. With Earth Day around the corner, this article discusses several of the most impactful changes companies can implement to make their buildings more sustainable. Install Solar Panels One of the most effective sustainable upgrades for commercial facilities is the installation of solar panels to a roof or carport. Solar panels provide a clean source of energy and can help companies save on their cost of power. Additionally, companies may be able to receive renewable energy credits for offsetting carbon emissions depending on their location of operation. Companies who install solar panels can minimize their carbon footprint and contribute to the wider goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. It can also help them achieve their corporate sustainability goals and align with the growing interest in ESG broadly among stakeholders, including investors, customers and employees. Upgrade to LED Lighting A simple step that companies can take to improve a building's sustainability is switching to light-emitting diode (LED) bulbs. LEDs produce light up to 90% more efficiently than other types of light bulbs, which can significantly reduce energy consumption. Additionally, LEDs do not need to be replaced as often as incandescent or fluorescent bulbs, lasting as long as 14 years in a building which uses lighting for approximately 10 hours each day. LED lightbulbs are a more sustainable option not only due to their efficiency and longevity, but also because they do not have the environmentally hazardous materials incandescent bulbs contain (including argon and xenon gases). LED lights also give off very little heat compared to other types of lighting, therefore helping reduce a building’s temperature and limiting the power load on its mechanical systems. The payback period for an LED retrofit is shorter than many other sustainable upgrades, making it a great starting point for companies looking to make their buildings more efficient. Invest in Water Recycling Climate change has caused water scarcity to become an increasing issue of concern. As a result, water recycling has emerged as a viable option to provide a sustainable source of water in commercial facilities. A leading option for reducing water waste and preserving this vital resource is to recycle greywater. Greywater refers to lightly used water from sources such as sinks, showers and washing machines. Instead of directing this water into the sewer system, facilities can instead treat it and repurpose it for non-potable uses such as toilet flushing and irrigation. Instead of wasting freshwater, recycled water can be used when potable water is not needed. By harnessing the latest technology, water recycling has the potential to revolutionize the way we manage water waste and conserve this precious resource. As water scarcity becomes an increasingly pressing issue, water recycling will be an important step companies can take to make their buildings more sustainable. Utilize IoT Sensors As businesses leverage technology to help them operate more sustainably, integrating Internet of Things (IoT) technology has proven valuable in helping companies manage building efficiency on a daily basis. In particular, IoT sensors can collect data and bridge the gap between the digital and the physical world, helping companies gather information on things like energy consumption, temperature, air quality and occupancy levels. For instance, IoT sensor data can help promote sustainability by helping companies monitor energy consumption and manage power usage. IoT sensors can also be vital in helping continuously monitor particulate matter (PM) concentrations and other chemicals, gasses and contaminants in the air, allowing companies to take measures to improve occupational safety and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Lease Your Real Estate? Partner With Your Landlord! Implementing sustainability initiatives can make a huge difference in reducing a building’s carbon footprint. Companies that lease their real estate may think implementing these changes isn’t possible, but that may not be the case. Leveraging their landlord relationship is a great way to explore options for sustainable building improvements. W. P. Carey is a leading real estate investor with a portfolio of over 1,400 properties, and recently launched a suite of sustainability and efficiency offerings for its tenants. With no upfront costs, W. P. Carey can help tenants manage the implementation of sustainability projects such as solar, LED lighting and smart metering, which can save money, reduce carbon emissions and benefit the environment. Contact W. P. Carey today to learn more!
How Sale-Leasebacks Help PE Raise Capital in a Tight Market
Funding for growth, refinancing corporate debt, and merger and acquisition activities are top priorities for many private equity firms. A recent PwC report noted that 60% of CEOs plan to make at least one acquisition in the next three years. The report further explains that lower levels of M&A activity during 2023 created “pent-up buyer demand” moving into the current year. However, tapping into capital isn’t always easy when it is locked in assets. “It’s quite inefficient for private equity firms to have capital tied up in real estate assets that aren’t earning for them,” says Tyler Swann, managing director, investments at W. P. Carey. “An alternative is doing a sale-leaseback, which provides a much lower cost of accessing capital than traditional financing methods.” Understanding sale-leasebacks and their advantages can help private equity firms strategically manage growth funding, debt maturities and other capital needs. The advantages of sale-leasebacks With traditional financing strategies such as mortgages, terms are often shorter and exposed to higher market volatility. Accessing capital can also be time-consuming, a challenge for firms that need to move quickly for acquisition deals. That’s not the case with sale-leasebacks, notes Swann. “Sale-leasebacks are very flexible,” says Swann. “The processing time can be as short as 30 to 45 days between the initial call and the actual funding. It’s not unusual for us to get a call from a private equity firm saying, ‘We’re closing on a business in 30 days; can you be there to close with us as acquisition financing?’ And that’s something we can do.” He explains that capital uses also have very few restrictions, with the most common purposes being acquisition financing, dividend payments, and refinancing maturing debt. Misconceptions about sale-leasebacks As private equity firms consider sale-leasebacks, questions often linger regarding who qualifies for this type of financing. Many believe that because their real estate is in a secondary or tertiary market, or their asset doesn’t have a huge value, they won’t qualify. But according to Swann, that’s not necessarily true. “If you have a specialized manufacturing facility in a small market, you may think it won’t qualify because it’s not a high-quality warehouse in a market like Southern California,” says Swann. “Despite where an asset is located, if it’s profitable and contributing to the bottom line of a business, it could be a great candidate for a sale-leaseback.” As the market progresses through 2024, Swann expects sale-leaseback activity to continue upward, partly due to M&A activity and its flexibility to tap into capital quickly. “Every year, sale-leasebacks become a little more accepted in the private equity community as a source of financing,” says W. P. Carey’s Swann. “Ten or 20 years ago, corporate debt was by far the dominant option, but we continue to see an increase in sale-leaseback deals every year.”
Charting a Path Forward
The CFO role has evolved over the years, expanding from its traditional financial focus to a broad range of strategic responsibilities. Today's CFOs wear many hats – from financial planning to compliance and risk management and strategic decision-making, among many others. In an environment marked by rapid technology advancements, market volatility and regulatory changes, CFOs play a crucial role in guiding organizations through challenges to build resilience and maintain profitability. In this blog, we delve into CFOs’ top priorities for 2024, drawing from a recent Gartner survey, and explore how leveraging sale-leasebacks can unlock capital to address these priorities. 1. Leading Transformation Efforts Embracing technology and automation remains a top challenge for organizations. Recognizing the crucial role of technology in enhancing business efficiency, compliance and competitiveness, CFOs will focus more on leading digital transformation efforts, both within their departments and across the entire organization. CFOs are integral to driving business transformation, especially in evaluating the best initiatives to adopt and their contribution to the bottom line. As companies scale, continuous implementation of emerging technologies becomes essential for efficient growth management. 2. Evaluating or Improving Financial Strategy Managing the finance function is a core responsibility for CFOs, and is vital for business growth and continuity. With the current economic and market volatility, CFOs will focus more on evaluating and improving the finance function's strategy. A robust financial strategy is essential to meet short and long-term financial goals and ensure positive business outcomes. It offers a better understanding of the company's present financial situation, assesses potential risks, outlines income goals, identifies competencies, investment strategies and funding options necessary to realize those goals. 3. Improving Finance Metrics, Insights and Storytelling Understanding financial metrics and insights is crucial not just for CFOs, but the whole organization. As such, leveraging data visualization can help simplify complex concepts, streamline reporting and foster collaboration across the organization. This can enable companies to tell stories and drive better understanding of their messaging among core audiences, including investors, which can potentially boost valuation. CFOs will prioritize improving finance metrics, insights and storytelling to achieve these and other benefits. 4. Leading Change Management Efforts CFOs will also prioritize leading change management in 2024. Resistance to change among employees is a common challenge often triggered by factors like fear of the unknown, lack of trust in leadership or loss of control. Effective change management is thus vital to organizational success. Strategic leadership promotes consistency, builds employee trust, enhances cost management and enables organizational agility, among other benefits. 5. Optimizing Costs Optimizing costs is yet another area of precedence for CFOs in 2024. Strategic cost management is essential for the realization of organizational goals, especially in volatile times. Possible initiatives include, promoting cost-consciousness across the organization to reduce operating costs, adopting new technology and automation to address inefficiencies, embracing data-driven decision-making and improving vendor management. The Key to Make it All Happen The success of an organization's financial initiatives hinge on the availability of capital. Particularly in an uncertain rate environment, access to liquidity is essential in providing companies with flexibility and growth capital. For companies that own their real estate, sale-leasebacks offer an alternative capital source to support CFOs’ 2024 priorities. These transactions enable companies to access immediate funds while maintaining operational control of their facilities. However, several considerations must be addressed to determine the suitability of a sale-leaseback for a business. First, sale-leasebacks only makes sense if the company owns its real estate. Additionally, a strong credit profile is necessary and a willingness to commit to a long-term lease is essential. The W. P. Carey Solution With all the conditions met, a sale-leaseback is a handy strategy that CFOs can explore to raise the much-needed capital to support the above priorities. At W. P. Carey, we have helped many companies in North America and Europe leverage this financing solution for over 50 years. If you're considering unlocking capital for your operations this year through a sale-leaseback, contact W. P. Carey today!