Where Will Net Lease Go in 2024?
‘Nobody has a perfect crystal ball’ on CRE investment performance in the coming year, but the net lease sector maintains several advantages, including the sale-leaseback
In 2023, higher debt costs, a looming $2 trillion-plus wave of corporate debt coming due and other economic uncertainty have clouded the CRE outlook. And while the net lease sector, with its low risk and steady income, has weathered recent economic headwinds better than most, it’s not immune.
Execution uncertainty was a central theme in 2023, reports Zachary Pasanen, managing director, investments at W. P. Carey. “With the ramp-up in interest rates, buyers and sellers have struggled to meet at a price that made sense,” he says, noting that a lot of deals after the first quarter had repricing challenges or re-trade concerns.
In a competitive market, those who rely on debt financing have been constrained by higher rates. Investors, however, are still seeing cap rate expansion within certain sectors.
Shifting Rates & Fundamentals
With deals more difficult to come by, investors have re-focused on fundamentals. Pasanen notes that, with industrial, this has meant a refocus on rent growth and the assets “criticality.”
There remains good demand for industrial assets, but investors should realize the changing fundamentals of the sector: it is no longer the “darling” product, attracting unlimited cheap capital in pursuit of properties requiring lower capex. Pasanen uses the word “retrenchment” for the asset class as people are getting smarter with rent growth projections following their internal modeling.
“With the sector still offering a lot of attractive elements, there is no desire to move out of the sector,” he says. “Unlike office, we view industrial, particularly manufacturing, as profit centers: it’s where the widgets are made. We focus on good, underlying fundamentals but also where there’s criticality in the real estate.”
The sudden shift in rates has caused a break in investor expectations, Pasanen says, with one-off, syndicators or family offices still pursuing at compressed numbers. Meanwhile, institutional investors are focusing on tenant credits and cap rates at 8% and higher.
Outlook
Pasanen notes there’s opportunity in sale-leasebacks for companies looking to raise capital. He says W. P. Carey has a successful history here, taking the time to understand a business to ensure they will be a good investment for the long haul. “No one has a perfect crystal ball, but we try our best and we've got a long history of underwriting credits that are sub-investment grade in nature, and we have a good track record in doing so.”
Market expectations are leaning toward interest rate cuts in 2024, an outlook reaffirmed by the Fed’s latest announcement on December 13. Smart investors, however, should prepare for all situations and also have contingency plans for a long pause or even a rate hike if inflation kicks up again. With inflation and increasing interest rates making borrowing more expensive, will CFOs and fund managers continue to strategize on how to recalibrate their business and find that new normal?
“I think it will actually be a big year in 2024,” he says. “The rise in interest rates happened quickly so if we have a long pause [on rate movement] the deal environment should become more normalized. When the behavioral element settles in we’ll see more normal investment activity.”
Related Topics:
You May Also Like:
Sale-leasebacks Earn a Bigger Role in Capital Strategies
Corporate operators and private equity sponsors are increasingly using sale-leasebacks in their capital strategies, whether to fund acquisitions, manage costs, or improve their balance sheet position. When companies own significant real estate, this structure provides access to the full property value without disrupting operations, says Zachary Pasanen, managing director and co-head of North American investments at W. P. Carey. "Companies often have significant capital tied up in real estate, so a sale-leaseback allows them to monetize the real estate fully, lock in a very long-term contract, and fix their rent for a sustained period of time," Pasanen says, adding that proceeds are commonly used to shore up balance sheets, fund growth initiatives, pay down expensive debt, or address near-term obligations coming due. As more companies weigh their options for unlocking the value of their real estate, the structure's appeal comes down to how well it fits broader capital goals. Private Equity Sponsors Find Value in the Multiple Gap Private equity firms have become steady users of sale-leasebacks to finance corporate acquisitions, Pasanen notes. This structure provides an opportunity to capture value from the gap between the real estate multiple and the acquisition multiple. "You can often find strong accretion by utilizing the sale-leaseback," Pasanen says. He adds that prudent CFOs and sponsors are factoring it into M&A strategies as an additional way to capitalize acquisitions. Corporate operators are also using this structure for other balance sheet purposes. For example, companies looking to pay down near-term or expensive debt may apply sale-leaseback proceeds while maintaining operational control of their facility. "The way we structure a lease gives them effectively the same controls they had when they owned the facility," Pasanen says. He explains that tenants can make alterations within reason, and they remain responsible for taxes, maintenance and insurance, much as they were before the deal closed. Pasanen also notes that W. P. Carey is a long-term capital partner to its tenants and can support their real estate needs as they evolve, with the ability to finance expansions, renovations or energy retrofits at their leased properties. Capital Flows In as Appetite Stays Strong Companies holding real estate often find the structure attractive because it helps them unlock a property's full market value. Pasanen notes that mortgage financing, by contrast, typically returns around 50 to 70 cents on the dollar. Corporate demand for sale-leasebacks is met by a market with no shortage of capital supporting it. Pasanen expects the sale-leaseback market to remain active, noting that a growing pool of investors are entering the space. For specialized facilities where tenants have invested heavily and relocation is expensive, Pasanen says investor demand remains particularly strong. This suggests the structure will remain a viable option, particularly for companies whose real estate is critical to their operations.
Sale-leasebacks: A Flexible Capital Solution Across the M&A Lifecycle
As private equity firms continue to navigate a dynamic M&A environment, access to capital is critical. One increasingly important tool in their toolkit is the sale-leaseback. By unlocking capital embedded in real estate, sale-leasebacks can support transactions at multiple stages of the deal lifecycle – from acquisition financing to post-close optimization. Below, we explore how private equity sponsors are leveraging sale-leasebacks both at the point of acquisition and after closing, with a recent transaction serving as a practical example. Strengthening the Capital Stack at Acquisition In competitive M&A processes, particularly in corporate carveouts or complex platform acquisitions, certainty of financing and speed of execution are critical differentiators. Sale-leasebacks can play a key role at this stage by serving as a complementary capital source within the transaction structure. Rather than relying solely on traditional debt or equity, private equity firms can incorporate a sale-leaseback to monetize a target company’s owned real estate as part of the acquisition financing. Because land and buildings tend to sell at higher valuations than the company itself, private equity firms can sell portfolio company real estate and rent it back under a long-term lease, thereby capturing a multiple arbitrage and blending up their initial purchase price multiple without necessarily contributing more equity themselves. Using a sale-leaseback at closing serves a number of benefits, including: Providing immediate funds to aid in maximizing purchase price to a Seller (and winning an auction) Reducing the required equity investment Lowering overall cost of funds or increasing overall financing duration from traditional financing sources In this way, sale-leasebacks serve not just as a financing tool, but as a competitive edge in winning and efficiently executing complex M&A transactions. Unlocking Value Post-Acquisition While executing a sale-leaseback at closing may often be optimal, for a number of reasons acquirors may prefer to wait until post-closing to pursue a sale-leaseback. Post-acquisition capital can be a way to fund additional acquisitions, repay expensive debt, or invest in incremental equipment or higher ROI opportunities. Once a private equity firm has acquired a business, monetizing owned real estate through a sale-leaseback allows the sponsor to: Recapture a portion of its initial equity investment Reallocate capital toward portfolio company growth initiatives, add-on acquisitions or operational improvements Replace shorter-term debt with long-duration leases with no refinancing risk Post-closing sale-leasebacks offer a number of advantages in optimizing a business where additional capital could be put to better use. Private equity firms can often benefit from evaluating their real estate portfolios to find untapped sources of capital to reinvest in their businesses. Case Study: GardenCore In May 2026, W. P. Carey completed the $400 million sale-leaseback of a 43-property manufacturing portfolio leased to GardenCore, a leading U.S. manufacturer of lawn and garden consumables. The deal was completed in conjunction with a private equity firm’s acquisition of the business as part of a corporate carveout. By incorporating the sale-leaseback into the capital stack, the sponsor was able to unlock value and reduce the acquisition purchase price, illustrating how sale-leasebacks can help facilitate complex M&A deals. A Strategic Lever for Private Equity As M&A activity continues to evolve, sale-leasebacks are increasingly becoming a core component of how private equity sponsors structure and optimize their acquisitions, transforming real estate from a passive asset into a strategic source of capital. With over $6 billion in private equity financing completed since 1973, W. P. Carey remains well positioned to support private equity firms in unlocking significant capital through sale-leasebacks. Get in touch today!
Net Lease Retail Continues To Surge
Net lease retail continues to attract investors seeking stability, long-term income, and defensive retail plays, and market momentum should remain strong into next year, experts say. GlobeSt spoke with Michael Fitzgerald, Head of U.S. Retail Investments for W. P. Carey, at this year's ICSC Las Vegas conference to discuss which retail categories are strongest, why sale-leasebacks continue to dominate the landscape and why he remains bullish on net lease retail. In this video, you'll hear: Which retail categories are the strongest in the current market What's driving the growth of sale-leaseback transactions How the net lease market will perform in 2027 Watch now An interview with Michael Fitzgerald, W. P. Carey, and Holly Amaya, GlobeSt.com.