The Outlook for Industrial
The biggest trends reshaping industrial real estate in 2025
The industrial real estate sector continues to stand out as a resilient and adaptive asset class, even amid economic uncertainty and shifting global dynamics. As we move through 2025, several dominant trends are shaping the trajectory of the market—from a fundamental shift in global supply chains to rising sustainability expectations, technological advancements and recalibration of capital strategies. Here’s a look at what’s driving the market:
Onshoring and Supply Chain Reconfiguration
The reshoring of manufacturing and logistics operations is no longer a speculative trend—it’s a structural shift. Spurred by pandemic-era supply chain disruptions and ongoing tariff concerns, companies are doubling down on operational resilience. This has led to a surge in demand for modern industrial space in inland and secondary markets, particularly near major highway corridors and intermodal hubs.
This shift is putting pressure on developers to deliver new inventory quickly, even as construction costs and permitting timelines remain elevated. In particular, industrial locations in non-coastal metros are seeing increased activity as firms diversify away from traditional port-adjacent markets.
Demand for Sustainable Real Estate
Sustainability is no longer a “nice to have”—it’s a core tenant demand. Industrial occupiers are increasingly seeking energy-efficient, environmentally responsible facilities that align with their business goals and lower operational costs. This includes buildings equipped with solar-ready rooftops, LED lighting, EV charging infrastructure and LEED certifications.
The push for greener buildings is also being driven by investors, who are factoring sustainability into underwriting and long-term asset value. Sustainable assets typically observe higher value in the market and are likely to lease up faster.
Advancements in Technology
From AI-enabled automation to smart building systems and robotics, technology is revolutionizing industrial and warehouse properties. In fact, more than a quarter of U.S. warehouse inventory is expected to be automated by 2027. Industrial occupiers leverage automation to create a more efficient process for moving products through their facilities, speeding up order fulfillment and improving inventory management. Properties equipped with automation and robust digital infrastructure are also typically viewed as “future proof,” making them more attractive to investors over the long term.
Capital Markets and the Rise of Sale-Leasebacks
Tariff concerns, economic volatility and tightened liquidity are prompting many corporate occupiers to turn toward alternative sources of capital, such as sale-leasebacks. This trend is especially pronounced in the industrial sector due to the strong investment profiles of these assets.
The primary benefit of a sale-leaseback is the ability to immediately convert an illiquid real estate asset into liquid capital to meet both short- and long-term needs. Sale-leasebacks can also help boost a company’s balance sheet by putting them in a better cash position and improving their debt-to-equity ratio, enabling them to secure more attractive debt financing in the future should they need it.
The Future is Bright
Despite short-term headwinds such as tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainty, the industrial real estate market in 2025 is defined by transformation and opportunity. Onshoring is redrawing the logistics map, sustainability is reshaping development, technology is boosting efficiency and output, and capital markets are evolving to meet new financial realities. For stakeholders across the supply chain—from developers and investors to tenants and brokers—understanding these trends, and opportunities, is essential for navigating the road ahead.
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The Appeal of Industrial Sale-leaseback Transactions
Let’s start with the foundation: if you’re unfamiliar with the term sale-leaseback, you should go here- The Ins And Outs Of Sale-Leasebacks| W. P. Carey. For a more focused explanation relating to industrial properties, let’s turn to Erik Foster, principal with Avison Young and head of the firm’s industrial capital markets practice. “A sale-leaseback is when a user of real estate who owns their premises chooses to monetize that real estate. They stay in [the property], occupy it for a long term and sell it to a third-party owner who becomes the landlord, and the occupier becomes a tenant,” Foster told LoopNet. According to Foster, sale-leaseback transactions for industrial assets have been surging over the past several years, with interest in North American industrial properties emanating from across the world. “It’s truly become a global marketplace,” Foster said. This interest in industrial real estate is neither new nor particularly surprising. As Foster noted, the sector has been experiencing record low vacancies amid historic levels of investment activity. And these factors, which have intensified during the pandemic, have created what Foster described as “a very exuberant investment atmosphere.” And industrial users are increasingly taking note of this enthusiasm. Historically, industrial users have been more apt to own their facilities than their office or retail counterparts. Where most office and retail properties are typically developed with the expectation that multiple tenants will occupy the property, some types of industrial properties are more commonly utilized by a single user. Moreover, industrial properties are often heavily customized to meet the manufacturing or specialized logistical requirements of a particular business. But industrial users are beginning to realize that they may be able to possess their proverbial cake and consume it too. “Industrial users are finding that they can reap the rewards of the sale of their building at record pricing, but still maintain occupancy and the use, so nothing really changes for them,” Foster said. Of course, few things in commercial real estate are without caveats. To gain a better understanding of the industrial sale-leaseback phenomenon, LoopNet spoke with Foster — as well as Gino Sabatini, head of investments and managing director of W. P. Carey — and they walked us through the attributes and challenges of this process for both users and investors. An Opportunity for Industrial Users to Acquire Capital and Flexibility According to Foster, for the industrial user, most of the advantages of a sale-leaseback transaction can be reduced to two concepts: working capital and flexibility. Foster noted that most industrial users that own their property have some kind of financing tied to the building. Perhaps they have a loan that represents 50%, or even 60% or 70% of the building’s appraised value. This loan provides them with operating capital to reinvest into the business — for the purchase of equipment or materials, for instance. Through a sale-leaseback transaction, a user can derive 100% of the value of their property, and reallocate that capital to other aspects of their business. Depending on the company’s accounting structure, this could vastly improve their balance sheet. “You can pay down debt, you can reinvest into your business,” Foster said. Meanwhile, the company in question retains use of the asset. The user “gets a ton of capital out of the real estate and continues to use [the real estate] the way they always have,” Foster added. The industrial user also enhances their flexibility in the process, trading their real estate asset for “a leasehold obligation. It’s not an illiquid asset,” Foster said. Between record-setting industrial investment activity and equally historic low interest rates, this can seem like the ideal moment for industrial users to relinquish ownership of their facilities. “W.P. Carey, and most other sale-leaseback and net-lease buyers, operate on a spread over interest rates,” Sabatini said. This means that as interest rates potentially rise in the near(ish) future, cap rates could climb alongside them. Currently, Sabatini said that cap rates range from 4% to 7%, depending on the location and nature of the facility (more on that in a moment). Foster said that he was even “hearing about sub-3% cap rates on the coasts.” All of these factors may make an industrial sale-leaseback transaction seem like a “best of both worlds” scenario for the user, but it’s not quite that simple. For one thing, as most industrial users are typically real estate novices, they need to make sure they carefully consider all potential suitors. “The user needs to make sure that they don’t talk to the first person that knocks on the door,” Foster said. According to Foster, taking the property through a traditional investment sales process generally garners terms that are more beneficial to the user — both for the sale and the subsequent lease. “When we go out and we make a market for assets like this, we’re amazed at how the terms continue to become better as we work through the process. Foster mentioned that it’s also important to find the right investor match for each particular industrial user. “Sometimes this is their only location and its critical to the [tenant/seller], so having an owner who doesn’t have any forethought or care about the user is an issue too, so you’ve just got to find the right match.” Industrial users also need to be comfortable with the control they’re surrendering by entering into a sale-leaseback transaction. For users that are accustomed to having sole authority over their premises, that adjustment could potentially be challenging. And, as frenetic as the industrial sales market is at the moment, there are reasons to believe that prices could continue to rise. “With the shortages in the commodities markets and the difficulty in getting steel and lumber and other materials, there’s a bit of a governor on the amount of development that can happen. So, the supply of assets is also muted, which is continuing to drive scarcity pricing,” Foster said. Ultimately, the viability of a sale-leaseback transaction for an industrial user will come down to that particular company’s priorities and whether they value working capital and flexibility over control and security. For investors, the calculus is a bit more fraught with risk, but potentially equally rewarding. Conducting Due Diligence on an Industrial Sale-Leaseback Opportunity It’s probably fair to say that W.P. Carey has more experience in industrial sale-leasebacks than any other property owner; after all, that’s been the firm’s primary focus since it was founded in 1973. As Sabatini described it, “Sale-leasebacks of industrial buildings for sub-investment grade companies is really our bread and butter.” When LoopNet asked what made these investments so appealing to W.P. Carey, Sabatini explained, “The facilities are often very critical to the company that is doing the sale-leaseback, and that’s very important for us; because we’re a long-term holder and we want to own something that the company is planning on using for a long period of time.” In an ideal scenario, Carey [Note: have requested that they change to Sabatini] said that W.P. Carey’s investment thesis is relatively simple. “We’re making a bet alongside the equity investors in that company that the company is going to be successful for a long period of time. If we’re correct, then we’ll collect rent for a 15- or 20-year primary lease term for starters, and potentially [execute] renewals as well.” But what happens if they're wrong? According to Sabatini, that depends largely on the market and asset in question. A highly customized property, one that will be challenging to adapt for a new tenant — such as a food or biotech manufacturing facility — represents a greater risk than a relatively generic property, like a last-mile fulfillment center. That risk expands in smaller markets and is somewhat ameliorated in larger markets. In terms of how Sabatini approaches the due diligence process, he said that the first portion of his methodology involves elements that are fairly consistent across any real estate asset class or deal type. He advised that prospective investors commission an environmental phase I study (and a phase II study if the initial report reveals any areas for concern); have an engineer walk the property to appraise its structural integrity; and review the property survey and title. “Make sure you’re purchasing a clean piece of real estate,” Sabatini said. After that, you need to undertake what Sabatini says is often the more challenging facet of the process: reviewing the company who will first sell you the property and then become your tenant. Sabatini likens this phase of due diligence to the process credit organizations like Moody’s undertake when they’re rating companies. “You try to understand the industry, the company’s position within it, as well as any threats to either the company or the industry,” he said. “You really need to dig into the credit and understand why the building is important to the company, and what the company’s financial prospects are in the short-term, the medium-term and the long-term.” Sabatini also said that it’s important to carefully review the company’s balance sheet. Specifically, you should assess their attitude towards leverage and how they have fared during downturns. As this process illustrates, in many respects a sale-leaseback transaction isn’t a simple real estate deal; it’s more analogous to the creation of a (hopefully) long-term, mutually beneficial partnership.
Is the Net Lease Industrial Market Still "Red Hot"?
The single-tenant net lease industrial market has been on fire in recent years. Buoyed by e-commerce growth, industrial properties were seeing record low cap rates and record high competition from investors following the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the sector has not been immune to recent macro-economic volatility. Search -In fact, quarterly transaction volume fell more than 46 percent in the first quarter of 2023, making it the slowest quarter reported by the net lease industrial sector since mid-2017. Does this mean that the industrial market is losing its steam? While some investors are waiting on the sidelines, trends including onshoring, supply/demand dynamics and rising interest in sale-leasebacks will help bolster the industrial market in the long term. Here’s why: Impact of onshoring Supply chain issues during the pandemic have been a major catalyst for onshoring in the industrial market. Having manufacturing facilities overseas meant accessibility was limited (or in some cases, completely restricted), which had a major impact on companies’ ability to get their product to consumers. As a result, more companies have focused on bringing their facilities back to the U.S., which has only been supported by lower labor-related costs, better automation technology and an accessible highway and interstate system. Technology companies have largely been leading the onshoring charge, with companies like Intel, Micron and Texas Instruments committing to building large manufacturing plants in the U.S. This has led to a steady rise in demand for warehouse and industrial spaces from U.S. companies, with notable growth seen in the Southeast. Supply/demand dynamics After several years of growth post-COVID, warehouse construction is on the decline due to higher interest rates, a slower economy and Amazon’s reduced spend on new facilities for 2023. 6,700 warehouses are expected to be built in 2023, a 35% reduction compared to the 10,000 built in 2022. Despite this, e-commerce growth is expected to keep demand for warehouse space strong, with rents anticipated to increase over the next year. The good news for investors is that cap rates are also on the rise – Search -up 35 basis points from record lows in 2022. As the buyer-seller price gap continues to close, more investors will likely jump back into the market, strengthening transaction volume in 2024. Uptick in sale-leaseback interest The volatility in the capital markets environment has certainly been challenging for companies, with cost of capital rising considerably given increasing interest rates. Alternative forms of financing such as sale-leasebacks have come to the forefront as companies look for ways to unlock capital. Sale-leasebacks offer a “naturally accretive” funding source, particularly for companies that own fungible, mission-critical real estate and are willing to sign a long-term lease. Industrial facilities have inherent criticality which makes them uniquely attractive to investors, making owners of these types of facilities great candidates for sale-leasebacks. While inflation is starting to cool, experts predict that the Fed won’t start cutting interest rates until 2024, which will encourage more industrial companies to pursue a sale-leaseback. With more opportunities likely coming to market and investors poised to execute (particularly all-equity buyers), we believe industrial will maintain its position as the “darling” of net lease for the foreseeable future.
Is a Sale-leaseback Right for Your Business?
Economic uncertainty and restricted debt markets are leading more corporate occupiers to explore alternative financing options such as sale-leasebacks to secure funds. In a sale-leaseback, a company sells its real estate to an investor for cash and simultaneously enters into a long-term lease thereby unlocking otherwise illiquid capital to redeploy into higher growth segments of its core business. A sale-leaseback is an innovative tool that can be especially advantageous in today’s market where debt financing may be less attractive but is your company and your real estate the right fit? Read on to determine if (and when) a sale-leaseback is right for your business. The Criteria for a Sale-leaseback Own your real estate The key criterion for a sale-leaseback is real estate ownership. One of the primary drivers for a company to undertake a sale-leaseback is to unlock 100% of the real estate’s value while maintaining long-term operational control of the asset. By selling your property and leasing it back, you remove a non-incoming producing, fixed asset (real estate) and unlock liquid capital to reinvest into your business. Own the right type of real estate While the mainstream commercial property sectors of industrial, retail and office are most common in a sale-leaseback transaction, other specialty assets like life sciences and data centers have expanded the pool of investable assets. Make sure it's critical to your operations Investors look for specific value-add characteristics before buying a property. For instance, it’s best if your asset is mission-critical—in other words, an essential revenue driver for your business. Potential investors will also likely consider the property’s condition and age (high-quality, modern assets with sustainable features will be more valuable), location (think proximity to transportation routes) and size. Desired size will depend on the investor and often vary by property type. Retail properties for example tend to be smaller (perhaps around 20,000 square feet), compared to an industrial asset that might be upwards of 250,000 square feet. Additional space to expand the facility is also a plus for investors. However, the criticality of the asset to your operations is often more important than the asset type or size itself. Have a strong underlying credit story (sub-IG credits welcome!) You’ll attract real estate investors if you have a strong underlying credit and revenue history. Due to the long length of leases typically associated with sale-leasebacks, the investor will want to be confident that you can consistently pay rent throughout the lease term. However, this doesn’t mean your company must be investment grade. Many investors can work with sellers that are sub-investment grade so long as the underlying fundamentals of the business are solid. Institutional investors with strong underwriting capabilities will be able to evaluate all credits and assess your financial statements in order to get comfortable with pursuing a sale-leaseback deal. Be willing to sign a long-term lease, but ask the right questions upfront The last criterion for a sale-leaseback is that you must be willing to sign a long-term lease with the investor, typically 10-30 years. Before signing a long-term lease, it’s important to consider some critical factors, including: Space requirements: Evaluate your current and future space requirements to ensure the leased property will accommodate your needs for the duration of the lease. If additional space is needed, it’s possible your sale-leaseback partner will work with you on an expansion or build-to-suit of a brand-new asset. Renewal options: Does the lease come with renewal options? Find out the renewal terms for which the lessor is willing to extend the lease period so that you can continue occupying the property once the initial period for the lease expires. Maintenance and repairs: Know who's responsible for any maintenance and repair needs of the leased commercial property. In a triple-net lease, for instance, the tenant is responsible for all insurance, taxes and maintenance expenses, which also means the tenant maintains full operational control. By considering all the above factors, you can make an informed decision and confidently enter into a long-term lease. When to Consider a Sale-leaseback? While sale-leaseback financing is an excellent alternative to loans and other debt financing, it's not ideal for every company in every circumstance. Here are a few examples of when it makes sense to consider a sale-leaseback for your business. When you need capital for growth Sale-leasebacks are an excellent tool to unlock cash for growth initiatives, particularly for companies with limited access to traditional forms of financing. Proceeds from sale-leasebacks can be channeled to investments in new equipment, technology, personnel or additional facilities. And the best part is that a sale-leaseback enables you to raise capital without losing control of your property. To support M&A If you're considering an M&A transaction, you may need to raise additional capital to fund the purchase of the target company—or to pay down debt following an acquisition—which may be the case for companies and private equity firms alike. Usually, the cost of capital for commercial real estate investors is quite competitive as a real estate investor will acquire your property at market rate, creating an immediate arbitrage between the real estate multiple and the acquired business EBITDA multiple. To strengthen your balance sheet A sale-leaseback can help strengthen your business’ balance sheet by shoring up much-needed cash. You can use the raised capital to pay off existing debt, boost your debt-to-equity ratio or invest in other revenue-driving areas of your business. Remember the composition of your business’ balance sheet determines how lenders, investors and shareholders view your company's risk profile. If you have less debt, your business will be more attractive to these parties. Final thoughts A sale-leaseback transaction is an excellent alternative for companies, especially during periods when traditional sources of financing are limited. When choosing a sale-leaseback partner, consider an experienced, long-term investor who can buy on an all-equity basis and who is willing to work with you throughout your lease (and beyond). W. P. Carey has been a leader in sale-leasebacks since 1973 and is well-positioned to continue helping companies unlock capital even in today’s challenging economic environment. Maximize your real estate and unlock immediate capital by contacting our team today!