Net Lease
Net Lease Retail Demand Follows Where Retailers Are Growing
The US net lease market is experiencing a resurgence. Valuations reset throughout 2025, meaning the bid-ask spread narrowed. And in spite of economic headwinds, net lease volumes increased by 24% year-over-year for the fiscal year ending in Q3 2025, according to CBRE. For Michael Fitzgerald, managing director and head of US retail at W. P. Carey, finding the right retail investment opportunity starts with understanding some tell-tale signals. “The US net lease retail environment is driven primarily by the general health of retailers,” says Fitzgerald. “Are there a large number of retail operators that are opening new locations or investing in existing locations in a way where they need access to capital?” When the answer to that question is yes, deal flow often follows, and Fitzgerald points to specific categories where he sees the strongest deal flow and investor interest right now. Non-discretionary Categories Draw Investor Interest Fitzgerald notes that retailers that sell non-discretionary products or services are among the most interesting for investors, but tend to carry lower cap rates. “We also think about the macro trends, such as fitness,” says Fitzgerald. “It used to be something that a small percentage of the population would pay for; now it’s become a non-discretionary spend for a lot of families because general health and fitness have become a priority.” He notes that convenience stores, car washes and automotive services are among the other segments he sees generating strong deal flow, with car washes having regained interest and automotive services drawing attention across the board. Full Loan-to-Value Appeal Drives Demand For business operators or CFOs seeking efficient forms of capital, Fitzgerald explains that the net lease structure is hard to beat. “They can redeploy that capital back into their businesses at a higher return because they’re getting more loan-to-value than a mortgage,” says Fitzgerald. “That’s why we see sale-leasebacks continuing to be one of the top choices for businesses that have an ongoing need for capital.” When evaluating a net lease retail asset, Fitzgerald explains that the analysis centers on whether a location can generate enough cash flow to cover rent easily across a commitment that can run for 20 years or more. He also notes that new stores can complicate that picture since there is no operating history to draw from, which is why assets with longer track records tend to be the easiest to understand and underwrite. Net Lease Retail Holds Up Across Good Economies and Bad Despite continued headlines about retailer store closures, Fitzgerald notes that the net lease retail market is more durable than the news cycle suggests. He explains that the net lease market has proved resilient across good and bad economies, with the most difficult periods coming not from downturns but from rapid interest rate swings in either direction. “I’m optimistic about the net lease retail market. Even in times of relative instability, we continue to see consistent deal flow, as companies leverage sale-leaseback transactions to monetize real estate and fund growth,” says Fitzgerald.
A Balancing Act Between Deployment and Discipline
Net lease continues to be one of the core investment strategies employed in the global real estate market, but conditions in the US and Europe do not strictly mirror one another, explain Christopher Mertlitz, Head of European Investments, and Zachary Pasanen, Co-head of North American Investments. However, across both of these regions, a common thread is emerging amid an uncertain macro environment: investors are balancing pressure to deploy capital with a more cautious approach to pricing, risk and long-term tenant viability. Download W. P. Carey’s keynote interview from the PERE Net Lease Report to learn more about the differences between the US and European net lease markets, which asset classes are garnering the most interest from investors, where deal flow is coming from and more.
An Interview with Gino Sabatini
Gino Sabatini, our Head of Investments, was recently a guest on the Net Lease Observer podcast. In the podcast, Gino discusses: His background in the restaurant business The history of W. P. Carey His view on how the investment market has changed over the years; and His outlook for 2026 and beyond Watch now An interview with Gino Sabatini, W. P. Carey, and Sean Hostert, Net Lease Observer.
Commercial Lease Types Explained: Find the Best Lease for Your Business
People who are relatively new to leasing commercial real estate often mistakenly think it is similar to a residential lease on a house or apartment. In fact, commercial leases are quite different and often much more complicated. There are different commercial real estate lease types, each of which suits the needs of different businesses and landlords. It's vital to understand what kind of lease you are being offered for your commercial property so you can ensure it’s the right lease for your business. Here are the various lease types and how they work. Gross Lease A gross lease is one where you pay a flat rental fee that includes everything. This means taxes, insurance, utilities and maintenance costs are all included in the lease. You might compare this with the rare residential lease that includes utilities and possibly cable. Gross leases work well if you are renting office space or retail space in a mall. The lease is calculated to include your share of all of the common operating costs of the space. In other words, your rent will include a prorated share of real estate tax, utilities, building insurance and janitorial costs. This allows landlords to avoid having to meter individual spaces. Gross leases are typically calculated by analysis or past data, but you can often negotiate specific terms of the lease. For example, the standard lease on an office building might include your share of janitorial services in common areas and other common area maintenance, but it can be to your benefit to negotiate a lease that also includes janitorial services inside the office. This saves money because you are paying for extra time from a company that is already coming in vs. hiring a new company altogether. Modified Gross Lease This is a lease where you might have negotiated not to pay for certain things, such as electric utility. This is also very common for commercial spaces with multiple tenants. Full-Service Lease This is a lease where you only have to worry about your rent. Everything else is handled by the landlord. This is often a lot more expensive than other lease types, but it can be easier to budget as you don't have to worry about, for example, seasonal increases in utility bills. It is also called a service gross lease. Choosing a gross lease may seem like the simpler option, but you will pay a bigger rent check every month compared to other lease types. You also need to trust that the landlord will keep up their end of the bargain and ensure that everything is paid for, and maintenance gets done when needed. Net Lease A net lease, on the other hand, is one which works from the base assumption that the tenant will be taking on responsibility for some or all of the costs of running and maintaining the building. This is more common with single-tenant buildings such as warehouses or restaurants, although can be executed in multi-tenant buildings as well. A pure net lease makes you responsible for all the costs related to a property. The rent is thus lower, and although you are responsible for other costs you can typically keep operating costs down by exploring sustainable retrofit projects like a solar panel installation if your facility does not already have. One advantage beyond the benefit of a lower base rent of a net lease is that you often have more control over the property and thereby maintain a sense of ownership. You can, for example, freely choose your own utility providers and maintenance workers instead of being stuck with the landlord's preferred vendor. While your operating costs may be less predictable compared to a gross lease, net leases tend to be long-term in nature so the uncertainty of operating costs is offset by the predictability in rental fees. Here are the three major types of net leases: Single-Net Lease: In a single-net lease, the tenant pays property tax and other taxes and rent while the landlord covers everything else. Also called an N lease. Double-Net Lease: In a double-net lease, the tenant pays taxes, rent and property insurance while the landlord covers everything else. Also called an NN lease. Triple-Net Lease: In a triple-net lease, the tenant pays all costs related to property management including taxes, rent, property insurance, maintenance and other costs. Also called an NNN lease. This is the most common type of net lease. Percentage Lease A percentage lease is a lease where instead of paying a fixed rent, you pay your landlord a percentage of your sales. This includes a certain amount of base rent, and also a negotiated break-even point, which might be a fixed amount or the base rent divided by the agreed percentage. Percentage leases can sometimes be beneficial to both parties for retail space, especially in a mall or shopping center. The terms can be net or gross, with the amount of the base rent set according to what the landlord is responsible for in terms of operating costs. Operating versus Capital Lease Most commercial real estate leases are operating leases, meaning you do not get ownership of the property after the lease is done. In many cases you will be able to renew and renegotiate the lease. With a capital lease, the property is treated as a purchase for accounting purposes, and you may gain ownership at the end of the lease. Capital leases have fairly strict requirements and are relatively rare in commercial real estate. They are similar to finance leases, where you automatically gain ownership at the end of the lease term. Ground Lease A ground lease is when you own the building, but another party owns the land it is located on. Ground leases tend to be very long, averaging 50 to 99 years (compared to the 10 to 30 year lease term of net leases and the typically even shorter gross leases). While ground leases can offer you full control over the building, with some limitations, you are adding another stakeholder with other interests and opinions. It can also be harder to get out of a ground lease if you need to relocate your business. So, what is the best type of commercial lease agreement? The answer is that it depends on your business and the kind of space you are leasing. W. P. Carey is a long-term owner of real estate focused on triple-net leases. We primarily own single-tenant industrial properties that tend to be critical to business operations and therefore unlikely to be vacated for many years. This type of lease makes the most sense for these businesses as it gives the tenant full operational control over the property and is most similar to ownership. The added benefit of selling to W. P. Carey is that we are a long-term holder of real estate and do not look to flip our assets. We have a vested interest in maintaining the quality of our portfolio and pride ourselves in serving as a partner to our tenants should you have additional real estate or capital needs past the point of initial sale. That said, with over 50 years of experience providing customized solutions to our sellers, W. P. Carey can work with you on a lease type that is best for you and your business. Want to learn more? Contact & start the conversation with W. P. Carey today!
Looking into the Crystal Ball
2023 was undoubtedly a challenging year for the net lease sector. High inflation, rising interest rates and other economic uncertainty caused a notable decrease in overall transaction volume, sparking apprehension about the trajectory of the industry. However, there have been some signs of renewed life in the market. Most experts believe we have hit the interest rate peak and expect cuts to be made in 2024. In addition, dealmakers generally anticipate that the M&A environment will improve given the market has stabilized, which could bring more investment opportunities to the market. While no one has a perfect crystal ball about what the future will hold, there are certainly reasons for optimism in 2024. Here are three net lease market predictions for the year ahead. Boost in net lease deal volume fueled by projected interest rate cuts The U.S. Federal Reserve indicated in its latest summary of economic projections that three cuts may be coming in the year ahead. The cuts are expected to be slow and gradual and will be dependent on the state of the economy, but investors reliant on third-party debt are hoping for a much-needed reduction in borrowing costs to remain competitive. The signaling of rate cuts is positive news for the market as it means interest rates have most likely reached their peak. This should help the market stabilize therefore narrowing the bid-ask spread between buyers and sellers, leading to a more active deal environment in 2024. In addition, many investors who have stood on the sidelines in anticipation that there will be more favorable opportunities down the road are likely to start jumping back into the market in 2024 and new entrants are expected to join in. Uptick in private equity sale-leasebacks as M&A surges The dealmaking environment in 2024 is already off to a better start than 2023. Inflation has declined, interest rates have likely reached their peak and private credit has become more widely available for more kinds of deals, while traditional credit markets are starting to improve. Private equity firms are also sitting on an unprecedented amount of dry powder – $2.59 trillion – with mounting pressures to deploy that capital into new investments. As a result, M&A activity is expected to increase in 2024. Along with an uptick in dealmaking, savvy private equity firms are expected to continue looking for alternative strategies for growth given lingering economic and geopolitical uncertainties. One effective strategy is through the sale-leaseback of their portfolio company real estate, which allows private equity firms to unlock immediate capital to redeploy into other initiatives, such as new acquisitions or portfolio company growth. Typically, when M&A activity surges, sale-leaseback opportunities follow, so more private equity-backed real estate deals will likely emerge in 2024. Pandemic office trends remain while industrial holds steady More than three years since the start of the pandemic, the real estate industry has finally accepted that the office sector will not return to the way it was before – and hybrid- and- remote work models are here to stay. As a result, offices have lost much of their appeal for investors, with transactions declining more than twice as much as any other property sector in 2023. W. P. Carey announced its strategic plan to exit office last year, through the spin-off of 59 office properties into Net Lease Office Properties and an office sale program to dispose of the remaining on-balance sheet assets. This trend is expected to continue into 2024 and some office investors will likely start to look for alternative uses for office assets – such as residential or industrial. Industrial, on the other hand, will continue to perform well into 2024, as re-shoring and nearshoring provide a boost to the sector. While the asset class is showing some signs of softening post-pandemic as the need for robust inventory decreases, the long-term outlook remains positive. Moody’s Analytics CRE forecasts that annual rent growth for warehouse and distribution properties will track at approximately 5-6% per year over the next 10 years, suggesting that the sector has moved on from its huge boom into a steadier state of growth.
Where Will Net Lease Go in 2024?
In 2023, higher debt costs, a looming $2 trillion-plus wave of corporate debt coming due and other economic uncertainty have clouded the CRE outlook. And while the net lease sector, with its low risk and steady income, has weathered recent economic headwinds better than most, it’s not immune. Execution uncertainty was a central theme in 2023, reports Zachary Pasanen, managing director, investments at W. P. Carey. “With the ramp-up in interest rates, buyers and sellers have struggled to meet at a price that made sense,” he says, noting that a lot of deals after the first quarter had repricing challenges or re-trade concerns. In a competitive market, those who rely on debt financing have been constrained by higher rates. Investors, however, are still seeing cap rate expansion within certain sectors. Shifting Rates & Fundamentals With deals more difficult to come by, investors have re-focused on fundamentals. Pasanen notes that, with industrial, this has meant a refocus on rent growth and the assets “criticality.” There remains good demand for industrial assets, but investors should realize the changing fundamentals of the sector: it is no longer the “darling” product, attracting unlimited cheap capital in pursuit of properties requiring lower capex. Pasanen uses the word “retrenchment” for the asset class as people are getting smarter with rent growth projections following their internal modeling. “With the sector still offering a lot of attractive elements, there is no desire to move out of the sector,” he says. “Unlike office, we view industrial, particularly manufacturing, as profit centers: it’s where the widgets are made. We focus on good, underlying fundamentals but also where there’s criticality in the real estate.” The sudden shift in rates has caused a break in investor expectations, Pasanen says, with one-off, syndicators or family offices still pursuing at compressed numbers. Meanwhile, institutional investors are focusing on tenant credits and cap rates at 8% and higher. Outlook Pasanen notes there’s opportunity in sale-leasebacks for companies looking to raise capital. He says W. P. Carey has a successful history here, taking the time to understand a business to ensure they will be a good investment for the long haul. “No one has a perfect crystal ball, but we try our best and we've got a long history of underwriting credits that are sub-investment grade in nature, and we have a good track record in doing so.” Market expectations are leaning toward interest rate cuts in 2024, an outlook reaffirmed by the Fed’s latest announcement on December 13. Smart investors, however, should prepare for all situations and also have contingency plans for a long pause or even a rate hike if inflation kicks up again. With inflation and increasing interest rates making borrowing more expensive, will CFOs and fund managers continue to strategize on how to recalibrate their business and find that new normal? “I think it will actually be a big year in 2024,” he says. “The rise in interest rates happened quickly so if we have a long pause [on rate movement] the deal environment should become more normalized. When the behavioral element settles in we’ll see more normal investment activity.”
The Institutionalization of Net Lease
The net lease market has become a hunting ground for investors looking for low-maintenance assets and long-term, predictable cash flows. The stability of the asset type during times of uncertainty has attracted attention from new investors – with the net lease share of all commercial real estate investment activity rising 14.7% in 2020. While it has historically not been viewed as one of the major food groups in commercial investments, this perception is changing as more capital continues to flow into the market. What's driving new capital? There are several factors that have contributed to the influx of capital in the net lease space, but the biggest factor is the appeal of long-term stability. With reliable cash flows, triple-net structures and generally longer lease terms, net lease investments are far less volatile than other assets and create predictability in a portfolio. While there was wide discrepancy across the net lease sector during COVID, generally net lease portfolios – particularly industrial and those focused on critical real estate – performed extremely well and delivered high rent collections when compared to other asset types. In addition, recent inflation fears have driven investors toward traditionally inflation-resistant asset classes like real estate, and net lease in particular has been popular in that context. What types of institutions have shown the most interest in the sector? There are several factors that have contributed to the influx of capital in the net lease space, but the biggest factor is the appeal of long-term stability. With reliable cash flows, triple-net structures and generally longer lease terms, net lease investments are far less volatile than other assets and create predictability in a portfolio. While there was wide discrepancy across the net lease sector during COVID, generally net lease portfolios – particularly industrial and those focused on critical real estate – performed extremely well and delivered high rent collections when compared to other asset types. In addition, recent inflation fears have driven investors toward traditionally inflation-resistant asset classes like real estate, and net lease in particular has been popular in that context. What does this mean for corporate sellers? Now remains a great time for corporate sellers to monetize real estate. High investor interest and limited supply is driving cap rates down and prices up, meaning sellers can maximize the value of their assets if they pursue a sale-leaseback now. Supply chain issues have highlighted the importance of industrial properties in particular, resulting in further price appreciation for industrial owners. Since there is an expectation that interest rates will rise next year in response to inflation, corporate owners should take advantage of the sellers’ market and pursue a sale-leaseback sooner rather than later to lock in today’s low rates on a long-term basis. Conclusion Although new entrants entering the net lease space are forcing cap rates down, the overall impact on the market is a net positive. Greater investor interest is also driving down cost of capital accordingly, meaning investors can still accretively do deals at lower cap rates since debt is relatively cheap. In addition, increased visibility of the net lease market lends credence to the asset class as a whole and creates more awareness for net lease and sale-leasebacks among corporate sellers – driving overall deal volume higher. From W. P. Carey’s perspective, 2021 has been a record year for deal volume and we have been able to support many companies in unlocking the value of their real estate and redeploying those proceeds into their core businesses…So bring on the competition!