Interest Rates
Net Lease Investors Adapt as Economic Uncertainty Lingers
Tariffs, interest rate fluctuations and macroeconomic uncertainties continue to reshape the net lease investment market. As these factors evolve, investors are working to make long-term decisions in an uncertain environment. “There’s a lot of volatility, especially around tariffs and trade policy,” says Jason Patterson, executive director of investments at W. P. Carey. “It’s difficult for a CFO or CEO to commit to a 20-year lease when so many of these factors are changing day to day.” This unpredictability has tempered deal volume, but as conditions stabilize, Patterson expects a resurgence in activity later in the year. The Impact of Interest Rate Volatility Interest rates have been a focal point for investors, particularly given their impact on pricing and transaction volumes. While rates have been trending downward recently, the past year has seen continued fluctuations, making it challenging for buyers and sellers to align on pricing expectations. “Investors really track the 10-year US Treasury as a guidepost for risk and pricing,” Patterson says. “The volatility we’ve seen has widened the bid-ask gap in many cases, making it harder for deals to come together.” He notes that as interest rates stabilize, market conditions should improve, leading to increased deal flow. Sale-Leasebacks Still Attractive Alternative to Unlocking Capital Uncertain economic conditions often prompt corporate real estate owners to explore sale-leaseback transactions as a means of unlocking capital. While Patterson hasn’t seen a major uptick yet, he expects that to change as 2025 progresses. “There are early signs of increased sale-leaseback activity,” Patterson says. “While we haven’t seen a huge spike just yet, M&A activity has been improving, and sale-leaseback volume often follows that trend.” He also notes that while uncertainty can sometimes deter companies from making long-term commitments, it can also push them toward alternative capital options, such as sale-leasebacks, to improve liquidity. Preparing for What’s Next With so much uncertainty, investors are focusing on proactive strategies to reduce risk and position themselves for long-term success. According to Patterson, much of this work happens upfront, from structuring leases with protective provisions to ensuring asset selection aligns with long-term needs. “The good thing about net leases is that once you’ve bought a building and signed a lease, there’s an expectation of long-term stability and predictability,” he explains. “The key is making sure those early decisions — such as lease structuring and tenant selection — are as strong as possible.” Active asset management also plays an important role. Maintaining strong relationships with tenants, tracking performance and being flexible with their needs can help investors handle potential challenges in the future. While economic uncertainty continues to persist, investors who remain disciplined and adaptable will be well positioned for success, and Patterson remains optimistic about the net lease market in the months ahead. “I don’t see an impending cliff or major downturn,” he says. “The best approach is to stay informed, track policy changes and make smart, forward-looking decisions.”
MIPIM 2025: Is the European Real Estate Market on the Rise?
The annual real estate gathering in Cannes, MIPIM 2025, is set to kick off next week. As in previous years, more than 20,000 delegates will gather to discuss both the opportunities and challenges facing the European real estate industry. While concerns about the market remain—including geopolitical tensions, inflation and future monetary policy decisions—investors have entered the year with a sense of cautious optimism. As real estate professionals gear up for an insightful conference, here are the key questions they will be looking to address. Will the European deal environment improve in 2025? 2024 was a year of transition for the real estate industry, with inflation gradually aligning with target levels and interest rates reaching their peak. In the latter half of the year, central banks began to lower interest rates, albeit slower—and in smaller increments—than some expected. Despite analysts projecting only modest European economic growth in 2025, the real estate investment market stands poised for a gradual recovery. Market participants have largely come to the realization that rates will remain higher for longer, bringing some stability to transaction markets. This has further narrowed the bid-ask spread as buyers and sellers align on pricing. Furthermore, lower cost of capital will be accretive to returns for some investors and support increased investment volumes. As a result, we expect more robust investment activity in 2025. What’s the outlook for the European sale-leaseback market? Even with interest rates declining, sale-leasebacks will continue to be an attractive solution for companies looking to boost cash flow. First and foremost, a sale-leaseback frees up capital tied up in illiquid real estate, allowing for greater financial resilience and flexibility without disrupting operations. Companies that pursue a sale-leaseback also benefit from predictable rental payments, making these deals a lower-risk alternative to volatile investments like the bond market. This combination of predictability and adaptability make sale-leasebacks a practical capital solution for companies with real estate assets. In addition, analysts expect the M&A market to rebound in 2025 as sponsor activity increases, regulatory and monetary dynamics normalize, and corporates continue to streamline and simplify their portfolios. When M&A activity increases, there is often an uptick in sale-leaseback opportunities, as private equity firms look to leverage sale-leaseback financing as part of the capital stack for new acquisitions or to support portfolio company growth. How will ESG reporting requirements impact the European real estate market? Sustainability is no longer “just a buzzword” in European real estate strategies. Investor demands, tenant preferences and regulatory requirements are driving companies to prioritize energy efficiency and carbon reduction. With the EU setting ambitious targets for carbon neutrality, businesses that own real estate must find ways to fund necessary upgrades. What some may not realize is that sale-leasebacks offer a great solution, allowing companies to unlock the value of owned real estate to finance energy efficiency upgrades, solar installations and other sustainability-driven improvements. This not only ensures compliance with evolving regulations but also helps reduce their carbon footprint—all while maintaining full operational control of their facility.
Net Lease Investors Eye Cross-Border Opportunities and New Property Types in 2025
The net lease market is positioned for change in 2025, with investors monitoring trends in geographic expansion and property types, as well as shifting economic factors. While the US remains a key market for many, international opportunities are gaining ground, particularly in Mexico, as noted by Tyler Swann, managing director of investments at W. P. Carey. “Mexico is a market we’ll be watching closely next year,” says Swann. “We’re seeing more sale-leaseback and build-to-suit opportunities there, particularly as more American and International manufacturers set up shop in the country.” Alongside these international prospects, investors are exploring new property types and preparing for economic factors like ongoing interest rate volatility and tariffs. By keeping an eye on these trends, investors can better position themselves for what’s next, says Swann. Geographic Expansion and Emerging Property Types While the US and Europe remain the cornerstone of net lease investment for W. P. Carey, Swann is monitoring other international markets, such as Mexico and Canada, for growth. “Our largest transaction in 2023 was in Canada,” he says. The country’s interest rates differ from those in the US, and Swann is keeping a close watch on how this impacts market pricing with an eye to expanding further if the opportunity exists. New opportunities in 2025 aren’t limited to geography, Swann notes. Some non-traditional property types are also getting a look from the net lease world. “We’re seeing more activity from net lease investors in the data center world,” says Swann. “Clearly, there’s a need for a tremendous amount of capital to fund the buildout of these new data centers.” However, he adds that W. P. Carey takes a selective approach, focusing on long-term leases to single tenants to ensure returns comparable to the company’s core industrial investments. Healthcare properties, particularly those in prime locations, are also attracting attention. “To the extent that we can find those well-located healthcare assets, I think that‘s something we’ll explore in 2025,” says Swann. Swann sees the key criteria for healthcare investments to be their proximity to population centers with favorable demographic trends and the asset’s importance to the local community. Continued Interest Rate Volatility and an Unpredictable Market As the net lease market heads into 2025, interest rate volatility remains a key concern for investors. Recent fluctuations in long-term Treasury rates have had a direct impact on asset pricing and overall investment strategies. “Long-term financing rates are also critical for how we price assets with long-term leases,” says Swann. “The uncertainty surrounding interest rates is compounded by economic factors, including potential deficit spending and the risks of future inflation.” Looking ahead, investors will need to remain flexible, evaluating opportunities, property types, and the broader economic trends to stay ahead of market shifts. “Interest rate volatility can actually benefit public REITs like W. P. Carey,” Swann notes. “We’re less sensitive to rate movements, which allows us to close deals even in volatile environments.”
What’s Next for Commercial Real Estate?
After several challenging years contending with the impacts of a global pandemic, the commercial real estate market finally seems to be healing. As noted in the latest Emerging Trends in Real Estate report from PwC and the Urban Land Institute, the Fed's 50-basis-point cut in September and subsequent 25-basis-point cut in November have generated some optimism in the CRE community that we are entering a new expansionary phase in the real estate cycle. Here are four of the top emerging trends taking shape as a result. 1. Interest Rates and Capital Cost Concerns Have Eased, but Still Remain In the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, the Fed attempted to revive the economy by lowering the federal funds rate to near zero. What followed was nearly a decade in which cheap debt became a way of life. However, starting in the spring of 2022, with inflation surging, the federal funds rate was increased 11 times, pushing the rate from zero to over 5 percent, bringing real estate investment activity to a near standstill. Reflecting on the market today, interest rates and cost of capital remain among the top concerns of respondents to the PwC Emerging Trends in Real Estate survey, but those concerns have eased since last year. While respondents largely agree that the rate cuts so far are not enough to alter deal economics fundamentally, the monetary policy movements have still injected optimism into the market. In addition, more than 80% believe that commercial mortgage rates will decrease in 2025, with 75% believing those rates will continue to decrease over the next five years. As an industry that relies heavily on leverage to get deals done, signs of lower-costing debt bode well for the future and will support more robust deal volume. That said, the Fed’s future decisions on rate cuts will depend on how inflation and the overall economic outlook evolve. 2. Acquisitions, Refinancing and Development Markets Improving The acquisitions, refinancing and development markets are slowly starting to heal, the Emerging Trends report noted, pointing to steady improvement in liquidity and more bids in the market, as well as tighter prices and debt spreads. Industry participants are also optimistic about debt conditions ahead, with lending expected to grow by 24% in 2025, indicating a full recovery to pre-pandemic levels and further signaling that normalization and stability are on the horizon. Another key factor market participants are looking at is the stabilization of recent real estate price declines. Cap rates began rising when prices peaked in mid-2022 and continued increasing until plateauing in early 2024. The most recent figures suggest prices might be turning positive again, although this may simply reflect that higher-quality real estate is accounting for a larger share of transactions. 3. Occupied Space Now Exceeds Pre-Pandemic Levels in Most Sectors The pandemic created significant changes in how tenants use space, and where. There are fewer office workers commuting to the workplace, more consumers shopping online and more goods being stored in warehouses. However, despite these changes, overall demand for space has more than recovered from the pandemic and remains robust across most property types, with the exception of office. When looking at the future of the retail market, survey respondents indicated that location is key. While newness is a significant priority for some property types like office, retail spaces tend to derive much of their value and demand based on their location. Frequently, older retail centers command the best locations, preventing newer entrants from gaining a foothold and making them more attractive to investors. In the industrial sector, net absorption has been positive, meaning more space is occupied than ever before. Yet demand has not kept pace with new supply, leading to an increase in vacant space. This has given more negotiating power to tenants, who are increasingly seeking spaces with more modern features such as high energy efficiency, LED lighting and higher clear heights. However, this “flight to quality” trend should abate slightly as the pipeline for new product slows and the supply/demand dynamics balance out. 4. There Is Less Movement Due to the High Costs of Relocation The pandemic not only created a shift in the demand for commercial property, but also shifted where people want to live and work. After years of increasing interstate migration, many areas are experiencing slower population growth or even outright population losses due to soaring home prices, fewer renters having the ability to transition to home ownership, and fewer households relocating for new jobs. The report notes that climate change is also becoming a greater factor in location decisions. The report points to a Freddie Mac analysis that shows natural disaster concerns have prompted one in seven households to consider other places to live. Many commercial properties are also at risk of damage from natural disasters and commercial property owners are facing increasing insurance premiums as a result. Conclusion As the real estate market transitions into a new cycle in 2025, we remain cautiously optimistic for the future. With change comes opportunity, and we’re excited to see how the landscape evolves as we enter a phase of recovery and renewal. With more than 50 years of experience operating in all market cycles, we’re well positioned to continue helping companies unlock otherwise illiquid capital from their real estate assets. If you're interested in learning more, contact us today.
A Resurgence of Investor Confidence
Earlier this week, real estate professionals from over 70 countries gathered in Munich for the annual EXPO Real trade fair. After a muted year of investment volume, participants were eager to meet with peers to discuss prospective deals and the outlook for the market. The mood can be best described in two words: cautiously optimistic. After rising interest rates caused months of uncertainty and volatility, attendees finally feel stability is on the horizon. Below are three key topics discussed as delegates look ahead to 2025. Interest rates on the decline Monetary policy decisions on both sides of the Atlantic were a major topic at this year’s EXPO. The European Central Bank began cutting rates this summer, followed by the Federal Reserve in September. These rate cuts are an indicator that inflation is on track to reach its target level for price stability. As a result, we’ve seen the bid-ask spread between buyers and sellers narrowing as real estate values adjust to more realistic levels. For investors waiting on the sidelines for economic clarity, this has also served as the impetus to start deploying capital into new and existing assets. At W. P. Carey, however, we would caution that investors should not focus too much on the next interest rate decision. Instead, they should consider the more important factor – long-term borrowing costs. Real estate investors typically borrow on a long-term basis given the length of their leases, so short-term rate cuts won’t have as much of an impact as some are anticipating. New sectors growing in popularity Post-pandemic challenges in sectors including office and some segments of retail have made investors far more selective in terms of capital allocation. Industrial remains among the most popular asset classes as it continues to benefit from strong market fundamentals. The e-commerce boom and logistics sector’s key role in European supply chains remain long-term growth drivers, while the emerging trend towards nearshoring will provide manufacturing and logistics with a further boost. We’re also starting to see some newer sectors growing in popularity. Self-storage, cold storage, senior living, hospitality and data centers have emerged as attractive investments, with strong operating fundamentals and positive long-term growth potential. As investors continue the flight to safety to protect returns, we expect to see a shift in the sectors – and geographic markets – receiving the most capital. An uptick in sale-leasebacks in 2025 Despite some volatility, the overall environment for sale-leasebacks remains favorable, with high-yield debt and leveraged loans continuing to be expensive. The influx of cash from a sale-leaseback remains incredibly valuable for companies, supporting debt restructuring, strengthening balance sheets and providing capital for operating expenses and growth investments. In addition, we continue to see interest from private equity firms in sale-leasebacks as a means of financing new acquisitions or bolstering the growth of portfolio companies. Last year alone, approximately 75% of W. P. Carey’s investment volume was attributable to transactions with PE-backed companies and we anticipate a significant portion of this year’s deal volume will be as well. While it will take some time for the sale-leaseback market to recalibrate and reach its new normal, we are starting to see the green shoots of a more stable industry as we gear up for a busy fourth quarter. We remain “cautiously optimistic” heading into 2025 and look forward to continuing to find opportunities to help companies unlock capital from their real estate assets.
Navigating Economic Tides: Interest Rates & Commercial Real Estate
Last month, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced it would cut interest rates for the first time since 2019, bringing the deposit rate down to 3.75%. This decision came following Eurozone inflation declining from its 10.6% peak in 2022 to 2.5% in June. But what does this mean for the European commercial real estate market? Inflation is cooling The rate cut is an indicator that inflation is on track to reach the ECB’s target of 2%, which is its desired level for price stability. Investors are hopeful that more stability in the market will further narrow the bid-ask spread between buyers and sellers, helping boost transaction volume. The rate cut will also lower borrowing costs for some investors and encourage more bank lending, increasing liquidity in the market and encouraging those on the sidelines to start deploying capital into new and existing assets. Still a muted impact Despite the positive implications, most real estate professionals expect the impact of the cut will be muted. While it’s a first step in reducing borrowing costs, there is not a universal consensus as to how the ECB will view future rate decisions. In its July meeting, the ECB decided to keep rates stable. A key issue remaining for the commercial real estate industry is the refinancing risk for maturing loans. While the cut will likely help some borrowers at the margin, it is not expected to have a significant impact on the pressures facing those needing to refinance. Additionally, cutting rates too quickly may not be ideal for some European economies. If inflation climbs back up, the ECB may have to reverse course and increase rates again, causing further volatility in the market. It is also important to consider the divergence between the ECB and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s own decision to hold rates steady for now. This could impact the Euro-U.S. Dollar exchange rate, which feeds into inflation via the prices for imported goods and services. Final thoughts While the ECB’s decision has garnered a lot of attention, we believe the more important factor is long-term borrowing costs. Real estate investors typically do not borrow on a short-term basis, but rather on a 5- or 7-year fixed rate basis. In this context, SWAP rates often matter more than the ECB’s (short term) deposit rate. As a result, we do not see this decision having a significant impact on the real estate investment market at this point in time. Investors should remain focused on their long-term strategy and direct their attention to factors within their control like quality underwriting, timely execution and capitalizing on opportunities when they arise.
Keeping Up with Industrial in a ‘Wildcard’ Year
Uncertainty around interest rates, slowed transactional volumes, and a future of unknowns has left investors in the industrial sector watching trends closely. “This year has been a bit of a wildcard,” says Jason Patterson, senior vice president of investments at W. P. Carey. “People constantly speculate about what the future holds regarding interest rates, and we also saw a bit of softening on the lease demand side at the end of 2023.” As uncertainty persists, understanding a few key trends can help the industrial sector track what’s next as it moves closer to a new normal. Cost of Capital Challenges Persist As 2024 began, forecasts predicted multiple interest rate cuts; however, the Fed has held rates unchanged to date. Recently, it adjusted the previous forecast from three expected rate cuts in 2024 to one, against the backdrop of persistent inflationary concerns. Volatility around rates has also led to investor hesitancy in making long-term commitments, further impacting transaction volumes. “There is also a long and continuous trend toward e-commerce,” says Patterson. “In the near term, there has been a bit of volatility due to overbuilding in certain markets, and there is a bit more vacancy that needs to be absorbed. These shorter blips are relative to what seems to be a long-term trend toward higher value in industrial real estate.” Despite ongoing challenges, opportunities still exist for the industrial market, and understanding some existing tailwinds can help investors capitalize on these. Shift to Onshoring Onshoring is a continued tailwind for the industrial sector, especially on the manufacturing side according to Patterson. “It seems there is bipartisan agreement around a movement to onshore, as sentiments trend toward increased American manufacturing.” Upticks in high-tech chip manufacturing and transitioning the auto fleet to electric are also drivers of long-term industrial demand, says Patterson. While electric cars accounted for only 2% of vehicles in 2018, that number jumped to roughly 18% of all vehicles sold in 2023. A push toward more sustainable vehicle technologies could further drive long-term industrial demand, but Patterson cautions that continued growth could depend on the outcome of the election. Strategic Positioning and Access to Capital When operating in a market with many unknowns, a good place to start is focusing on what’s within your control, suggests Patterson. “Factors such as interest rates are out of the hands of most folks,” says Patterson. “We focus on sticking to our competitive advantage, which is underwriting sub-investment-grade long-term lease opportunities.” Agility is also key, as is working with partners who can support the market’s need for increased flexibility. According to Patterson, “This is a time when having a reputation for strong performance and access to capital is very valuable. At W. P. Carey, we are well positioned to execute with significant liquidity and capital, enabling us to be nimble in the current environment.”
Navigating Net Lease Retail
Rising interest rates, increased cap rates, and sluggish deal activity created changes in the retail market over the past couple of years. Indeed, the bid-ask spread left many retail net lease deals stuck in negotiations. “There was a time when buyers and sellers found themselves pretty far apart, trying to find a way to meet in the middle,” says Michael Fitzgerald, executive director and head of US retail at W. P. Carey. “During 2023, we saw volume slowdowns of traditionally marketed sale-leaseback deals, as some sectors experienced 50, 75, or even 80 basis point increases in cap rates.” However, at the start of 2024, Fitzgerald notes that he’s seen a stable flow of developer-fueled deals and a higher demand for liquidity. As the market progresses into 2024 and beyond, understanding its direction can help investors make more strategic decisions. Low vacancy rates, creating new opportunities A recent report found that retail vacancy rates are at their lowest level in two decades, as rents continue to rise. The report compared 390 retail marketers across the United States and found that the national retail vacancy rate sat at just 4%. According to Fitzgerald, low vacancy rates are a positive sign that provides confidence in long-term leases and the ability to quickly replace tenants. “Let’s say a fitness operator signs a 20-year lease,” says Fitzgerald. “If retail vacancies are low, that’s a positive for us if we need to re-tenant, as we can likely replace them with a new tenant at or above the original price without compromising our income stream.” He explains that W. P. Carey typically focuses on finding deals in markets with growing rents, such as Phoenix, versus smaller and less vibrant markets. “When you get into underwriting situations where vacancy rates are low, it often allows us to get more aggressive with the cap rate and other deal terms,” says Fitzgerald. Looking into 2025 and beyond Another factor that could contribute to an uptick in activity is merger and acquisition deals. An increase in M&A typically corresponds to an uptick in sale-leaseback activity, as firms leverage proceeds as part of the capital stack for new acquisitions. Overall, Fitzgerald remains optimistic about the coming months. “I think the retail market will continue to be strong because there’s always compelling fundamental reasons why retailers want to sell their real estate rather than hold it,” says Fitzgerald. He explains that it comes down to retailers not being real estate companies. Businesses can generate better returns for investors by investing in their core competencies, ie. running retail operations, and often find holding onto real estate is a drag on their cash and liquidity. As a result, he predicts continued demand from retailers for creative ways to access that liquidity – such as sale-leasebacks.
How Sale-Leasebacks Help PE Raise Capital in a Tight Market
Funding for growth, refinancing corporate debt, and merger and acquisition activities are top priorities for many private equity firms. A recent PwC report noted that 60% of CEOs plan to make at least one acquisition in the next three years. The report further explains that lower levels of M&A activity during 2023 created “pent-up buyer demand” moving into the current year. However, tapping into capital isn’t always easy when it is locked in assets. “It’s quite inefficient for private equity firms to have capital tied up in real estate assets that aren’t earning for them,” says Tyler Swann, managing director, investments at W. P. Carey. “An alternative is doing a sale-leaseback, which provides a much lower cost of accessing capital than traditional financing methods.” Understanding sale-leasebacks and their advantages can help private equity firms strategically manage growth funding, debt maturities and other capital needs. The advantages of sale-leasebacks With traditional financing strategies such as mortgages, terms are often shorter and exposed to higher market volatility. Accessing capital can also be time-consuming, a challenge for firms that need to move quickly for acquisition deals. That’s not the case with sale-leasebacks, notes Swann. “Sale-leasebacks are very flexible,” says Swann. “The processing time can be as short as 30 to 45 days between the initial call and the actual funding. It’s not unusual for us to get a call from a private equity firm saying, ‘We’re closing on a business in 30 days; can you be there to close with us as acquisition financing?’ And that’s something we can do.” He explains that capital uses also have very few restrictions, with the most common purposes being acquisition financing, dividend payments, and refinancing maturing debt. Misconceptions about sale-leasebacks As private equity firms consider sale-leasebacks, questions often linger regarding who qualifies for this type of financing. Many believe that because their real estate is in a secondary or tertiary market, or their asset doesn’t have a huge value, they won’t qualify. But according to Swann, that’s not necessarily true. “If you have a specialized manufacturing facility in a small market, you may think it won’t qualify because it’s not a high-quality warehouse in a market like Southern California,” says Swann. “Despite where an asset is located, if it’s profitable and contributing to the bottom line of a business, it could be a great candidate for a sale-leaseback.” As the market progresses through 2024, Swann expects sale-leaseback activity to continue upward, partly due to M&A activity and its flexibility to tap into capital quickly. “Every year, sale-leasebacks become a little more accepted in the private equity community as a source of financing,” says W. P. Carey’s Swann. “Ten or 20 years ago, corporate debt was by far the dominant option, but we continue to see an increase in sale-leaseback deals every year.”