Interest Rates
Optimism Amidst Uncertainty: Key Takeaways from EXPO Real
Earlier this month, Europe’s largest real estate trade show EXPO Real returned in Munich. Nearly 40,000 attendees gathered to network and discuss trends, innovation and opportunities in the real estate market. Traditionally, EXPO is a place “where deals get done” but given the current challenges in the macroeconomic environment attendees were more focused on understanding where the market is heading into 2023. Here were three of the most prominent topics discussed. Rising interest rates With the European Central Bank announcing its third consecutive rate hike this month, interest rates were the main topic of discussion at EXPO Real. Largely, attendees were focused on how assets should be priced to reflect rising rates, with the consensus that we’ll continue to see cap rates rise and property prices fall into next year. However, a big challenge that attendees are facing is how to bridge the gap between seller expectations and the pricing buyers will need to generate adequate returns. To compound the issue, inflation remains at record highs in Europe which means more interest rate increases are certainly on the horizon. This will create an even more challenging environment for real estate investors that require third-party debt financing to close transactions, making all-equity buyers better positioned to execute on deals. Logistics still dominant Despite the macroeconomic doom and gloom, the current market still has room for certain sectors to thrive. Logistics remains the darling of the real estate world, with Europe seeing record logistics investment volumes in the first half of 2022. 20% of all real estate investment in Europe is in the logistics sector, suggesting there is still a very strong investor appetite for the asset class. The sector continues to benefit from tailwinds amplified by COVID such as the rise of e-commerce, which continues to drive occupier demand for logistics and warehouse space. Record-low inventory and high demand have meant the logistics sector has been slower to see cap rate increases than others; however, many are seeing a re-pricing period take place which is critical for investors looking to close transactions. Sale-leasebacks gaining prominence as bank lending becomes more restrictive Amidst all the uncertainty at EXPO Real, there was still an undercurrent of optimism among attendees. Historically, we’ve seen more sale-leaseback opportunities come to market in challenging economic environments as a result of companies seeking ways to shore up capital to support ongoing business operations and growth. With banks becoming more restrictive with lending, alternative forms of capital such as sale-leasebacks provide an immediate opportunity to plug the financing gap for companies. And with interest rates likely to continue rising into 2023, now is a great time to pursue a sale-leaseback and lock in an attractive rental rate for the long-term.
The Return to Cannes: Takeaways from MIPIM 2022
Following a pandemic-induced hiatus, MIPIM, Europe’s largest real estate event of the year, finally returned to the idyllic city of Cannes. More than 20,000 attendees eagerly came out to meet in-person and discuss the most prevalent topics and issues impacting the real estate sector. During my experience at the four-day event, the following major themes unsurprisingly dominated most of the conversations: rising interest rates and inflation, the conflict in Ukraine and ESG. Here’s my take on how those may impact our business and the broader European real estate market. Interest Rates and Inflation Similar to the U.S., inflation in Europe is reaching highs not seen in several decades with euro area inflation hitting 5.8% in February, driven primarily by rising energy prices and supply chain challenges. As a result of fast-rising inflation, central banks worldwide will likely pursue an increasingly hawkish strategy, bringing forward interest rate increases. All-equity buyers like W. P. Carey may be better positioned to execute on deals in this environment since they are not reliant on third-party debt financing. From a seller’s perspective, the timing to pursue a sale-leaseback may have never been better – locking in a long-term rental rate now while cap rates remain low, and before interest rates begin to rise significantly. War in Ukraine We are incredibly saddened by the events unfolding in Ukraine and are committed to doing our part to support those in need. As of now, it’s difficult to say how exactly the war will impact the real estate market but it will likely continue to stoke the flame of rising inflation globally due to economic disruptions which could further impact interest rates and borrowing costs. It’s also possible that some companies may take a “wait and see” approach to investing in neighboring countries to Ukraine and Russia until there’s more clarity on when the conflict will end. Focus on ESG ESG remained a prominent topic, particularly as regulatory and disclosure requirements continue to increase, forcing companies to define concrete, measurable goals. With the main theme of MIPIM being “driving urban change,” there was certainly a lot of discussion surrounding how the real estate industry can tackle climate change and net zero emissions as well as ensuring sustainability of new developments. At W. P. Carey, we are intensely focused on ESG. In 2021, we invested in several green buildings, including the acquisition of a 1.1-million-square-foot, BREEAM-certified logistics facility in the U.K., net leased to Jaguar Land Rover. We also issued our first green bond offering last year with $350 million of proceeds earmarked for green projects. From an asset management perspective, we take a proactive approach to communicating with our tenants on sustainability projects that can reduce their environmental impact and reduce operating costs, such as solar panels and building efficiency retrofits. For example, we worked with our tenant Sonae MC in Portugal on the installation of a solar roof which was completed last year. We also worked with our tenant Nippon Express on the installation of a one-million-square-foot solar roof, which is now one of the largest solar rooftops in Europe. While we still have much progress to make, we are focused on reducing the carbon footprint of our portfolio and believe that green buildings are not only beneficial for the environment but can also have a significant business impact for W. P. Carey, including increasing property values, driving higher rents and attracting high-caliber tenants.
Fighting Back Against Inflation with Real Estate
Inflation is at its highest point in 40 years. The consumer price index – a key indicator of inflation – rose 7.5% in the 12 months ending in January, far surpassing initial predictions from economists. For CFOs, this has meant a rapid increase in the cost of raw materials, manufacturing and overhead which significantly cuts into a businesses’ cash flows. In addition, the US is currently in the midst of a labor shortage stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic. This has forced CFOs to increase wages and other compensation in order to secure and retain talent – another big blow to a company’s cash flows. To fight mounting costs, CFOs need to take a look at their company’s assets and find ways to free up capital on their balance sheets. One often overlooked asset is a company’s owned real estate. For companies not in the business of owning real estate, these assets add a significant weight on the balance sheet. However, through a sale-leaseback, companies can sell their real estate to an investor for cash while simultaneously entering into a long-term lease. The benefit of this type of transaction is that companies can realize 100% of the value of an otherwise illiquid asset and can immediately invest that capital back into their core business. In today’s high-inflationary environment, this capital could be used to offset immediate rising wholesale and labor costs in addition to funding long-term growth initiatives. Furthermore, companies can retain full operational control of their assets following a sale-leaseback, meaning there’s no disruption to day-to-day business. Now is also a particularly attractive time for CFOs to consider sale-leasebacks due to a number of macroeconomic factors. First, the U.S. Federal Reserve has signaled that they plan to raise interest rates as early as this month to counteract inflation. However, if a company pursues a sale-leaseback now, they can lock in today’s lower rates on a long-term basis. Second, competition for high-quality real estate – particularly industrial assets – remains at an all-time high due to investors seeking long-term, stable cash flows. As a result, corporate owners can secure a high price for their real estate, in addition to attractive lease structuring, giving them the opportunity to fully maximize the amount of proceeds they receive. Inflation certainly won’t last forever, but even a few months, or years, of rising prices can be devastating for businesses. While there are a number of tools CFOs can leverage to mitigate the impact of inflation, sale-leasebacks should not be overlooked. Unlocking the value of corporate real estate and reinvesting those proceeds back into the business can not only help companies ride out the current wave of rising prices, but also set them up with the capital needed for long-term growth and success.