Interest Rates
Net Lease Retail is at an Inflection Point
As retail investors and operators convene in Las Vegas for ICSC, the conversation around net lease retail feels both familiar and different. Familiar, because the net lease retail market continues to demonstrate resilience and stability. Different, because the drivers shaping today’s retail real estate decisions are evolving—creating new opportunities for operators and investors alike. From rising sale-leaseback activity tied to M&A, to more intentional approaches around store size and format, today’s net lease retail market is being shaped by a combination of strategic growth decisions, changing consumer behavior and a more balanced transactional environment. These are several of the key trends taking center stage ahead of the conference. Sale-leasebacks Follow Strategic M&A Activity One of the most consistent drivers of sale-leaseback volume in retail today is merger and acquisition activity. Whether it involves private equity-backed platforms consolidating regional brands or strategic buyers acquiring complementary concepts, transactions often prompt companies to reassess their balance sheets—and real estate frequently emerges as one of the most efficient sources of capital. In many cases, companies come out of acquisitions with real estate portfolios that were not central to the strategic rationale of the deal. Sale-leasebacks allow operators to unlock that capital, streamline their asset base and redeploy proceeds into higher-return priorities such as new stores, technology investments or debt reduction. What stands out in the current environment is that this activity is not limited to highly leveraged situations. Healthy, growing retailers are increasingly using sale-leasebacks proactively as part of longer-term capital planning, particularly when M&A introduces scale or accelerates geographic expansion. Sale-leasebacks continue to provide a compelling alternative to traditional financing for businesses seeking flexibility and predictability. The Evolution Toward Smaller, More Flexible Footprints Another defining trend across retail is the ongoing evolution of physical store footprints. While large-format locations remain relevant in certain categories, many retailers are gravitating toward smaller, more efficient concepts that align with omnichannel strategies and localized demand. These stores are often designed to serve multiple functions—acting as showrooms, service hubs, fulfillment points or a combination of the three. Flexibility has become increasingly important, both in store design and in location strategy, as retailers respond to shifting consumer behavior. From a net lease perspective, this evolution places greater emphasis on unit-level fundamentals. Smaller footprints can generate compelling cash-on-cash returns, but success depends heavily on the alignment between location, concept and the operating model. The underwriting process for net lease retail investors is therefore increasingly focused on how these formats perform across markets, how scalable they are and how they fit into a retailer’s broader growth strategy. Stabilized Cap Rates Bring Predictability Back to the Market After a period of volatility driven by rapid interest-rate movements, cap rates across the net lease retail space have begun to stabilize. While pricing discipline remains essential, the return of predictability has had a meaningful impact on transaction activity. Clearer valuation benchmarks make it easier for buyers and sellers to transact. Investors can underwrite opportunities with greater confidence, tenants can assess capital alternatives more thoughtfully and deals are less likely to stall amid uncertainty around pricing expectations. That said, credit quality, location fundamentals, lease structure and real estate criticality remain core considerations. However, in a more balanced environment, high-quality assets supported by strong operators are finding liquidity, and capital is moving more efficiently. Looking Ahead As ICSC Las Vegas approaches, there is optimism across the net lease retail landscape. While uncertainty remains part of the broader economic backdrop, the conversations in Las Vegas are expected to reflect an industry that has evolved through recent cycles and continues to find opportunity through change. For net lease retail, the current environment represents less of a reset and more of a recalibration—one that rewards sound fundamentals, flexibility and a long-term investment approach.
A Balancing Act Between Deployment and Discipline
Net lease continues to be one of the core investment strategies employed in the global real estate market, but conditions in the US and Europe do not strictly mirror one another, explain Christopher Mertlitz, Head of European Investments, and Zachary Pasanen, Co-head of North American Investments. However, across both of these regions, a common thread is emerging amid an uncertain macro environment: investors are balancing pressure to deploy capital with a more cautious approach to pricing, risk and long-term tenant viability. Download W. P. Carey’s keynote interview from the PERE Net Lease Report to learn more about the differences between the US and European net lease markets, which asset classes are garnering the most interest from investors, where deal flow is coming from and more.
The Net Lease Market Finds Its Footing
Net lease investors have been on a wild ride over the last few years. The large run-up in benchmark rates beginning in 2022 created challenges around pricing expectations. However, Jason Patterson, executive director, investments at W. P. Carey, notes that despite some trade volatility and other factors, more stability in long-term rates over the past two years has helped those on both sides of a transaction find more common ground on where pricing should land. Bid-Ask Spreads Narrow as Pricing Stabilizes For much of the reset period, sellers were anchored in 2022-era valuations, while buyers priced deals on materially wider rates, and that gap has begun to narrow. “A slightly more range-bound 10-year Treasury provides some confidence on where pricing should shake out,” says Patterson. He adds that increased capital inflows to the net lease space have also further compressed bids, driving more transactions to pencil out on both sides. Where sellers once struggled to meet the market, a more stable pricing environment has made that alignment more achievable. Tighter Credit Spreads and Sale-Leasebacks Support Deal Flow Patterson explains that credit spreads broadly had been near record lows until recently, a condition that he describes as helping keep cap rates from widening significantly. Tighter spreads benefit net lease investors both in how deals are capitalized and in the cap rates at which tenants and developers expect to transact. Patterson notes that he expects to see an increase in sale-leaseback interest driven by a pickup in private equity and M&A activity. He also adds that lower short-term rates may stimulate deal flow in private equity, and a change in ownership often serves as the catalyst for a sale-leaseback arrangement. Moving forward, Patterson points to interest rate volatility and credit as two of the most important factors for net lease investors. Rate volatility, he notes, can quickly undermine returns. He also flags credit as a persistent area of focus, noting that while recent headlines have raised broader concerns, the long-term nature of net lease real estate may make those risks more muted than in other sectors. And as the market moves into a more active phase, those who keep a close eye on both will be best positioned to capitalize on what Patterson sees as a period of growing opportunity ahead.
REIT Access to Equity Markets Could Accelerate Acquisitions in the Coming Year
REITs are working to find a seat at the table as active buyers for commercial real estate property as the transaction market regains momentum. One sign that REITs are positioning to take advantage of buying opportunities is a recent flurry of equity raising. Five REITs went to the market with secondary offerings in February, raising a combined $1.3 billion. W. P. Carey Inc. (NYSE: WPC) raised $496.8 million Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE: EPRT) raised $350 million NETSTREIT Corp. (NYSE: NTST) raised $208 million Curbline Properties Corp. (NYSE: CURB) raised $204 million Getty Realty Corp. (NYSE: GTY) raised $131 million W. P. Carey is coming off a record $2.1 billion in new acquisitions in 2025. “It's a really good market right now for us. The stability in interest rates has brought bid-ask spreads in, and sellers who have been on the sidelines for the last few years are now back into the market. So, we took advantage of that in 2025,” says CEO Jason Fox. The company is targeting primarily manufacturing and logistics facilities, as well as select retail, both in the United States and Europe. The REIT is poised for more growth in 2026 thanks to a strong balance sheet that includes roughly over $850 million in equity forwards, a credit facility of more than $2 billion that is largely undrawn, and annual free cash flow of about $300 million per year. The company has issued conservative guidance for acquisitions of between $1.25 billion and $1.75 billion, with the expectation that those numbers will be adjusted depending on how the year progresses. “Our cost of capital is as strong as it's been for quite some time. That supports accretive investment activity, and it allows us to be competitive on pricing when needed,” Fox says. “I think a lot of REITs find themselves in a similar position.” For all those reasons, REITs are likely to be more active acquirers this year. That's reflected in deal volume to date, as well as many of the guidance numbers for 2026, he adds. Across the board, it’s safe to say that REITs have been preparing for an acquisition spree. “Operationally, REITs are very much ready to handle a significant increase in number of properties, and some of that's being helped by the technology investments that companies have been making to be efficient and manage more with less,” says Matthew Werner, managing director, REIT strategies, at Chilton Capital Management. REITs also have worked to strengthen balance sheets. Many are under-levered with some of the lowest debt ratios they’ve ever had and very low levels of floating-rate debt specifically. “They have tons of capital capacity, but except for a few sectors, their cost of equity doesn’t make sense for them to go and do transactions,” Werner says. Cost of Capital Hurdles After multiple years of low transactions volume, commercial real estate transaction volume started to recover and rose 23% last year to $545.3 billion, according to MSCI. Certainly, REITs were among the group of buyers. In fact, four REITs—Welltower Inc. (NYSE: WELL), Agree Realty Corp. (NYSE: ADC), W. P. Carey, and Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (NYSE: STWD)—ranked in the top 12 for most active buyers last year based on the total number of properties acquired, according to MSCI. However, REITs as a group were noticeably less active last year. REITs accounted for 5.5% of the total transaction volume compared to 9.6% of transaction volume the prior year, and more than 10% of transaction volume in 2020 and 2021, according to JLL. The key reason for that decline is that most REITs have been trading at discounts to NAV since mid-2022, when the Federal Reserve first began its rate-hiking cycle. “A lot of REITs, through no fault of their own, have been trading at perpetual discounts to NAV,” says Steve Hentschel, senior managing director and leader of the M&A and corporate advisory platform at JLL. “It's very hard to raise new equity when it's dilutive, and without raising new equity, it's hard to be an active acquirer,” he says. Over the last few years, many publicly traded REITs have been trading at discounts to both their underlying asset values and the broader equity markets. That dynamic constrained opportunities to make new investments, and instead resulted in some take-private activity, adds Bryan Connolly, chair of DLA Piper’s U.S. real estate practice. “Looking ahead, as the underlying real estate fundamentals improve, interest rates stabilize and potentially decrease, and values in the private market continue to adjust, there should be more opportunities for growth by public REITs,” he says. Haves and Have Nots The spike in interest rates and pricing volatility that sent both buyers and sellers to the sidelines in 2023 and 2024 appears to be reversing course. The availability of debt, cost of debt, and comfort level with valuations are all improving, which is good news for commercial real estate sales activity in general. For REITs, the ability to transact is still divided into those “haves” and “have nots” in terms of NAV. The “haves” are those sectors that are trading at large premiums to NAV, notably health care, net lease retail, and data centers. Health care REITs in particular are trading at historically large premiums that are 50%, 100%, or even close to 150% above NAV in some cases. As a result, companies such as Welltower, Ventas, Inc. (NYSE: VTR), American Healthcare REIT, Inc. (NYSE: ATR) and CareTrust REIT, Inc. (NYSE: CTR) have been very acquisitive. Welltower, for example, completed $13.9 billion in new investments in the fourth quarter alone, which is larger than the total asset size of some public REITs. CareTrust invested $1.8 billion in 2025, including $562 million in fourth quarter. At REITworld last December, CareTrust President and CEO Dave Sedgwick said that with a larger team and broader platform, the “table is set” for another strong year. The REIT kicked off 2026 with the January announcement of a $142 million acquisition of six skilled nursing facilities in the Mid-Atlantic region. “We've always said, if you’ve got it, flaunt it, and we’re seeing that now from a lot of these health care REITs where they are appropriately using that cheaper cost of equity to be acquisitive in the markets they operate in,” says Daniel Ismail, co-head of strategic research, managing director, at Green Street. Health care REITs have the added benefit of finding good buying opportunities within sub-sectors, particularly in senior housing, he adds. Net lease is another sector that has been leveraging its cost of capital advantage to make accretive acquisitions. And many of the same players that were active last year expect to keep their foot on the gas. For example, Agree Realty acquired $1.45 billion in retail net lease properties last year, and the company recently increased guidance for 2026 to $1.6 billion to be deployed across its three external growth platforms. “Our pipeline to start the year is very healthy, filled with typical assets and pricing that investors would anticipate from Agree Realty,” says CEO Joey Agree. However, the REIT is watching to see how the expectation of lower interest rates this year will play out in terms of pricing, sellers, and the competitive landscape. “One important misconception is that publicly listed and private capital are chasing the same assets,” he adds. “It’s important for investors to understand the size and scope of the net lease market and appreciate the divergent strategies and execution of the many players.” Positioning for Acquisitions On the opposite side of the spectrum, a number of sectors are trading at discounts to NAV of between roughly 10% and 20%, including office, apartments, industrial, self-storage, and lodging. REITs in those sectors are still buying assets, but they are less active. “It will be hard to see them ramp up acquisition activity throughout 2026, and they likely will be highly selective in the type of deals they do,” Ismail says. Digging into individual property sectors, there are multiple examples of companies that have done a lot of hard work to put themselves in better positions for the acquisitions to “turn back on,” Werner adds. “The market is paying attention to that and rewarding these companies,” he says. FrontView REIT, Inc. (NYSE: FVR), for example, was able to source a convertible preferred investment and now has the opportunity to prove their acquisition strategy. As a result, their share price is on a path toward being able to issue common equity again, and the company will be able to continue acquisitions after they use the cash from the convertible preferred issuance, Werner notes. REITs also have another lever to pull that could give them an edge in acquisitions—the ability to utilize the tax advantages of the REIT structure to allow private operators to sell their assets to REITs. Instead of a cash sale, an owner could consider an UPREIT, which would allow them to transfer their basis into operating partnership (OP) units. There have been one or two examples of that in strip centers, which has been experiencing good fundamentals. “So, we could see a few more of those as the year goes on,” Ismail says. Outlook for M&A Activity In addition to property sales, the environment could be more conducive for M&A deals this year, both in public-to-public and take-private deals. One recent announcement was the acquisition of Veris Residential, Inc. (NYSE: VRE) by a group led by Affinius Capital for $3.4 billion in cash. “If the math doesn't work for a REIT to go buy something on the private market, why not buy a public peer with an exchange,” Werner says. “I think the sector is ripe for that, but I do think that it's also ripe for take-privates because the debt markets are very open.” Many of the M&A deals that have occurred in the last year were take-privates that involved deals below $3 billion. Some of those transactions are getting done in “chunks” with perhaps one buyer acquiring a large portion of the portfolio, with other assets or smaller portions being sold off separately, Hentschel notes. For example, Aimco is reportedly sold seven of its Chicago-area properties to an investment group for $455 million as part of its liquidation. Buying Opportunities Ahead REITs could find more buying opportunities ahead in a market where transaction volume is rising and the bid-ask pricing gap between buyers and sellers is narrowing. Although transaction markets have not been entirely frozen, the inventory of for-sale properties has been thin, with more sellers that have opted to hold onto properties and wait out market volatility. “There was plenty of liquidity, but there was a bid-ask gap between buyers and sellers, and now that gap is closing, and more product is coming to market,” Hentschel says. In its 2025 Year-End Real Estate Trends Report, DLA Piper is predicting that U.S. commercial real estate transaction volume will increase by another 15% to 20% this year. “We expect REITs will be most active in sectors perceived to benefit from multi-year tailwinds such as health care and housing-related assets, including senior housing and multifamily properties,” Connolly says. Data centers are likely to continue to command interest, as well as manufacturing and logistics due to supply chain challenges, continued expansion of e-commerce, and on-shoring. “Public REITs have been challenged by the gap between how the public market values their stock and how the private market values the underlying real estate,” Connolly points out. “However, as private market values continue to adjust to the new reality, this headwind should diminish.”
Sale-leaseback Activity Expected to Grow as Capital Conditions Improve in 2026
After a slow start, sale-leaseback activity saw a resurgence in the second half of 2025. Early in the year, activity was dampened by uncertain fundamentals and macroeconomic headwinds, but momentum returned as market conditions stabilized. “It was a year of growth, particularly for industrial middle-market sale-leasebacks, which are a large part of W. P. Carey’s business,” says Tyler Swann, managing director, investments, at W. P. Carey. With interest rates stabilizing and companies continuing to explore innovative ways to raise capital, sale-leaseback activity is expected to remain strong in the new year. Falling Rates Support a Strong Outlook For many businesses, changing capital conditions play a major role in decision-making. Swann notes that long-term rates, which directly impact sale-leaseback pricing, have been trending downward. He explains that the 10-year US Treasury rate started the year in the mid to high fours, before settling around 4%, improving the cost of capital and creating stronger incentives for companies to act. “Lower cost of debt and equity enabled us to offer lower cap rates to potential tenants,” says Swann. He adds that when interest rates decline, companies often feel more comfortable making longer-term capital commitments, including sale-leasebacks with 10-, 15- or 20-year terms. Improved Trade Clarity Continues to Strengthen Activity Uncertainty around trade policy has created pockets of hesitation among many companies as they weigh their decisions. “Some people didn’t want to make long-term commitments to facilities, not knowing exactly what the trade policy was going to look like,” says Swann. “However, the threat of tariffs has begun to temper and, as a result, activity is getting stronger.” He notes that trade uncertainty has also pushed some companies to double down on their commitments to domestic supply chains. Swann adds that industrial vacancy remains low in many markets and rental rates have generally held steady or increased, reinforcing investors’ appetite to acquire these types of assets through sale-leasebacks. Improving Capital Conditions Create a Tailwind for 2026 With long-term rates stabilizing or slightly declining over the past year, Swann expects these shifts to remain a positive influence on sale-leasebacks. “I anticipate this stability to be a tailwind for investment activity for the same reason it was in 2025,” he says. He also points to merger and acquisition activity as another area to watch. Swann believes a pickup in private equity transactions could further boost sale-leaseback volume in the coming year. As interest rates continue to inch lower, he notes that activity may resemble more active periods of previous cycles, setting the stage for a strong 2026.
From Volatility to Resilience: Net Lease Real Estate in 2025
2025 marked a turning point for the net lease real estate market, driven by three defining trends: interest rate relief, cap rate stabilization and an increased focus on mission-critical assets. Together, these forces shaped real estate investor strategies and helped restore confidence in the market. Here’s an overview of each: Interest Rate Relief Sparked Market Activity The Federal Reserve’s late-2024 rate cuts reignited momentum across the market. Lower borrowing costs helped narrow the bid-ask spread, unlocking deal flow that had stalled during the Fed’s tightening cycle. Transaction volumes rebounded as investors who had been sidelined re-entered the market, eager to capitalize on improved financing conditions. For the year ending in Q3 2025, net lease investment volume increased by 24% to $48.1 billion from the same period a year ago. This shift underscored how quickly sentiment can turn when capital becomes more accessible. Cap Rates Found Their Balance After two years of steady increases, cap rates showed signs of stabilization, with Q2 and Q3 data indicating only marginal movements. This plateau suggests the market is entering a more predictable phase – due to factors such as declining Treasury yields, steady inventory and consistent demand – and creates opportunities for disciplined investors to lock in attractive yields. High-credit tenants continued to command premium pricing, underscoring the importance of credit quality in underwriting decisions. Mission-Critical Assets Took Center Stage Another notable trend in 2025 was the surge in demand for mission-critical properties. While these assets have long been foundational to the net lease market, investor interest increased as buyers prioritized operationally essential facilities with high tenant stickiness and limited relocation risk. As a result, investors gravitated toward property types such as specialized manufacturing, data centers and healthcare facilities. These types of mission-critical properties typically offer long-term stability and predictable cash flows given the tenant is likely to operate out of them for the long term, making them attractive in a volatile environment. Looking Ahead 2025 represented a much needed rebound for the net lease market. Interest rate cuts and cap rate stabilization restored confidence, reignited deal flow and brought investors back into play. While macroeconomic headwinds haven’t disappeared, the sector enters 2026 on solid footing and poised for continued growth.
Sale-leasebacks Gain Ground as Flexible Capital Solution
With corporate debt maturing and capital market and tariff uncertainty persisting, more companies are turning to sale-leasebacks to access capital quickly, without sacrificing control of their key real estate. “Sale-leasebacks are a unique option to provide liquidity, especially when traditional lending becomes less accessible and more expensive,” says Zachary Pasanen, managing director, investments, W. P. Carey. “Interest rates are still elevated, so companies that own their real estate are leaning into sale-leasebacks to pay off expensive debt and shore up their financial position.” As a result, this long-standing strategy is seeing increased interest as operators across industries navigate rising debt costs, looming maturities and a cautious lending environment. Meeting liquidity needs quickly In a typical sale-leaseback, a company sells a property it owns and simultaneously leases it back from the buyer. This frees up capital previously tied up in real estate while allowing the company to keep operating in the same location. “W. P. Carey is unique in that we don’t use asset-level financing,” says Pasanen. “We’re an all-equity buyer with access to multiple forms of capital, which allows us to close quickly on deals that meet our investment criteria.” He points to a recent nine-figure deal that closed just 22 days after signing the letter of intent, highlighting the advantage of working with a buyer that has decades of broad experience and ready access to capital. For companies looking beyond traditional debt financing, sale-leasebacks are a great option, particularly when you can find a buyer that offers speed and certainty of execution. “It allows the company to focus on their core competency, whether that’s a product or service, rather than tying up capital in real estate,” says Pasanen. What to consider before moving forward For companies exploring this strategy for the first time, Pasanen has a few words of advice, starting with the accounting implications. “Talk to your accounting department beforehand to make sure you understand how the lease will be treated on the books,” says Pasanen. From there, he says it’s about evaluating all your options. Many companies are surprised to learn that even secondary or tertiary locations can appeal to the right buyer. “We’re location agnostic,” says Pasanen. “As long as we’re acquiring mission-critical real estate with a long-term commitment from a company, we’re willing to consider a deal, irrespective of location.” Looking ahead, companies are likely to encounter escalating expenses and more restrictive lending environments, positioning sale-leasebacks as an effective means to swiftly generate capital and align with long-term strategic goals. “With the access to capital that we have,” says Pasanen, “we really view ourselves as a leading provider of sale-leaseback financing, delivering the type of solutions operators need in order to fund their next phase of growth.”
The Future of Net Lease Retail
Retail investors in 2025 face shifting market conditions, including tariff concerns, interest rate volatility, higher construction costs, and increased institutional competition. According to Michael Fitzgerald, executive director and head of US retail investments at W. P. Carey, these forces will continue to influence retail investments in the months ahead. “You have many factors pushing cap rates in different directions, with new entrants and fresh capital coming into the market,” says Fitzgerald. “That increased demand naturally drives rates down. But at the same time, rising 10-year interest rates and investors trying to protect their spread are pushing cap rates up. In the end, we’ve actually seen some stability since this time last year.” Still, in the current conditions, investors are reassessing how they evaluate risk, structure leases, and identify long-term value. Pressure Points Grow Rising construction and financing costs as well as the increasing cost of imported goods have become pressure points across the sector. According to Fitzgerald, those costs translate to higher rents, especially for new sale-leaseback deals. Even with those increases, Fitzgerald emphasizes that the need to ensure profitability still holds up at the store level. “We need to make sure the metrics still make sense,” he says. Additionally, inflation has made flat leases a tough sell for investors. “It’s fair to say the age of flat leases is over,” adds Fitzgerald. “Outside of grocery, there’s really not much appetite for retail leases with flat escalations.” Sale-leaseback Opportunities Remain Despite these headwinds, the retail sale-leaseback market has continued to see growth because the structure has basic advantages over other forms of financing. Sale-leasebacks offer long-term capital with no refinancing risk and typically without the restrictive debt covenants or balloon payments of traditional debt. As a result, companies that need capital and have a real estate footprint will continue to tap this form of financing despite overall higher cap rates. According to Fitzgerald, the best candidates for sale-leasebacks are growing retailers in healthy retail segments. This includes companies that provide discount non-discretionary products and services, convenience stores, service-based segments and fitness. How Disciplined Investors Move Forward When evaluating retail assets, Fitzgerald emphasizes the EBITDAR-to-rent ratio as a key metric. “It’s the single most important metric for understanding whether a retail location is a good long-term investment. Locations with a history of consistent profit will tend to stay open and can support a fair amount of rent.” Beyond that, Fitzgerald highlights that W. P. Carey also looks at the rent relative to market and the cost basis of the property relative to its construction cost or replacement cost. The corporate credit profile also plays a major role. Fitzgerald emphasizes he often looks for companies with strong credit, market leadership, conservative capitalization, solid management, a proven track record of success, and a conservative approach to growth. “W. P. Carey has a strong history of smart credit underwriting, and in some cases, our deep understanding of credit allows us to pursue investment ideas others will not.” Despite changing market conditions, Fitzgerald believes disciplined investors still have room to thrive. For instance, he points to W. P. Carey’s access to capital, as well as their overall balance sheet strength. “We are differentiated by our large balance sheet that allows us to make all-cash offers at large scale without any financing contingencies. This enables us to consistently offer certainty of close, which is often the most important factor sellers point to when choosing a sale-leaseback partner.”
Net Lease REITs Poised for Continued Growth
In a commercial real estate market where transaction activity remains subdued, net lease REITs have been busy deploying billions in capital and steadily growing their portfolios. Many companies in the sector have good liquidity and a desire to grow and are expected to actively pursue deals they view as attractive—despite ongoing market volatility. Net lease REITs are by nature an acquisitive group. They need to make accretive investments to grow their FFO per share, and the sector is coming off a robust year of deal-making with an especially active fourth quarter. Notable highlights include: Realty Income Corp. (NYSE: O) invested $3.9 billion last year, with $1.7 billion occurring in the fourth quarter. Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE: EPRT) invested $1.2 billion last year, which included $333.4 million in the fourth quarter W. P. Carey Inc. (NYSE: WPC) closed on $1.6 billion in acquisitions in 2024, including a record high of $840 million in the fourth quarter. Agree Realty Corp. (NYSE: ADC) invested $951 million in 2024, with $371 million in the fourth quarter. “One can make the argument, isn't the fourth quarter usually the biggest acquisition quarter in the year?” says Scott Merkle, managing director at SLB Capital Advisors, a real estate advisory firm specializing in sale-leasebacks. “That's usually accurate, and that probably played a role here. But more importantly, the net lease REITs coming into 2025 were trading at very attractive levels, so they had good currency with which to acquire properties.” Fourth quarter investment activity also accelerated along with signals that the Federal Reserve was moving into a rate-easing cycle, adds Jason Fox, president and CEO of W. P. Carey. “That flowed through to the 10-year Treasury and helped propel sellers who had largely been on the sidelines for much of 2024 into action, with bid-ask spreads between buyers and sellers coming in meaningfully,” he says. Appetite for Growth Despite market volatility fueled by President Trump’s proposed tariff policy, net lease REITs are maintaining cautious optimism for more growth ahead with guidance, thus far, that is similar to 2024. “The appetite to do deals and deploy capital is still there. We're seeing it every day in the transactions that we're working on with REITs that are actively offering on sale-leasebacks,” Merkle says. Net lease REITs are buying existing net lease properties and also investing in sale-leasebacks, both on a one-off and portfolio basis. However, all buyers are being a bit more cautious right now given uncertainty surrounding the impact from tariffs on consumer spending, supply chains, and the global economy. “The biggest headwind to the sector is volatility,” says Spenser Glimcher, managing director, self-storage & net lease, at Green Street. “It's one thing if the economy is slowing, but it's the uncertainty of the swings in markets week-to-week or day-to-day,” she adds. Companies are navigating in a market where there is less certainty around the ability to deploy capital and execute on acquisition opportunities. Will deals take longer to get done? And will buyers and sellers try to renegotiate different pricing or cap rates? “The volatility in the market, if anything, has made it even more important in terms of having balance sheets and liquidity because there is a certain amount of acquisition expectation that's built into this sector every year,” says Haendel St. Juste, managing director and senior REIT analyst at Mizuho Americas. Net lease REITs rely on acquisitions because it is not an internal high-growth sub-sector. Historically, more than two-thirds of growth in the sector has come from acquisitions, he notes. Tapping Equity Markets Historically, net lease REITs have funded acquisitions with roughly 50-50 equity and debt, and they’re often tapping equity via ATMs as well as traditional equity issuance. For example, EPRT has pre-funded its growth for the coming year thanks to an upsized stock offering in March that raised $254.2 million. “Because these companies are serial acquirers, the sub-sector requires lots more fresh equity every year,” St. Juste says. “Their stock price and cost of capital matters because they’re spread investing, and that’s why you see their balance sheets a little bit more liquid.” Investors often gravitate to net lease REIT stocks during cyclical downturns and volatility because of the bond-like characteristics of the sector. And the defensive nature of the sector has garnered attention this year as investors have looked for a safe spot to place capital. Net lease REITs have diversified tenancy with long-term leases that also have embedded rent bumps. Balance sheets are typically liquid and low-levered, and investors also like the steady dividend yield they deliver. “From a positioning perspective, we've seen a number of investors that have built their portfolios a bit more towards long-duration sectors in the last couple of months. If you look at what's worked year to date, it's been health care, towers, gaming, and triple net,” St. Juste says. Varied Approach to Acquisitions Although the desire to grow is there, the capacity for growth within the sector is a mixed bag. Most net lease REITs like to invest on a leverage-neutral basis and tend to be conservative allocators of capital. “If you're not trading in a premium–5% or greater to your NAV–you're kind of in the cost of capital penalty box because you're not able to go out and issue equity to grow,” Glimcher says. Triple net REITs without the need to raise any additional capital to reach, and potentially exceed, acquisition targets should be net winners, according to St. Juste. W. P. Carey is among the net lease REITs sitting in a strong capital position. “We've talked this year about having a clear path to fund our investments in 2025 without the need to raise any equity,” Fox says. The REIT plans to fund acquisitions with the sale of non-core operating assets, primarily dispositions of its legacy self-storage properties. The REIT also has a $2 billion credit facility that’s largely undrawn. W. P. Carey started 2025 with guidance for acquisitions in a range between $1 billion and $1.5 billion. “I've characterized that as appropriately conservative given the market uncertainty,” Fox says. The REIT has completed about $449 million in investments through April, primarily involving single-tenant industrial assets. The biggest and obvious headwind is the uncertainty in the world right now, where interest rates are going, where tariffs are going to land, and how that’s all going to flow through to inflation. “This uncertainty tends to chill transaction markets, and we'll probably see some of that, especially from portfolio sellers who may not be as motivated to be in the market right now,” Fox notes. However, some of those same challenges also could provide tailwinds by creating buying opportunities and perhaps motivate sellers to pursue a sale-leaseback to raise capital for their business. “We've done some of our best deals over the years during times of significant uncertainty or when there's capital markets dislocation,” he adds. Searching for Buying Opportunities Finding buying opportunities could be a near-term challenge with uncertainty that may keep sellers on the sidelines. The M&A market is typically a big source of investment opportunities for REITs as sale-leasebacks are often used as a financing tool. However, the pipeline for M&A deals has been relatively quiet this year, given the uncertainty and volatility in capital markets that make pricing more challenging. REITs also are seeing increased competition from private equity groups. According to SLB Capital Advisors, there were three large sale-leaseback deals announced in first quarter by SouthState Bank, AT&T and REI totaling more than $1.5 billion, and all three of those deals went to private equity buyers. “We hear from all the buyers we talk to that there is a shortage of quality sale-leasebacks out there, so there’s probably not as much acquisition volume as they would like, but REITs are actively pursuing those deals that they view as being attractive,” Merkle says. REITs also are well-positioned to win deals when they choose to do so, he says. “They're not stretching; they're not overpaying; but when they like an acquisition they're going after it and putting forth attractive, compelling offers,” he adds. Despite an appetite for growth, net lease REITs are keeping a close eye on their capital costs, potential credit risk and slowing economic growth. “I think the sub-sector is a net winner here, and acquisitions will be part of the story,” St. Juste says. “But we'll probably hear of deals taking a little bit longer, and in some cases, maybe a bit more competition from new private equity sources in the space.”