Optimism Amidst Uncertainty: Key Takeaways from EXPO Real
Head of European Investments Christopher Mertlitz discusses key themes dominating the discussion at Munich's premier real estate trade show
Earlier this month, Europe’s largest real estate trade show EXPO Real returned in Munich. Nearly 40,000 attendees gathered to network and discuss trends, innovation and opportunities in the real estate market. Traditionally, EXPO is a place “where deals get done” but given the current challenges in the macroeconomic environment attendees were more focused on understanding where the market is heading into 2023. Here were three of the most prominent topics discussed.
Rising interest rates
With the European Central Bank announcing its third consecutive rate hike this month, interest rates were the main topic of discussion at EXPO Real. Largely, attendees were focused on how assets should be priced to reflect rising rates, with the consensus that we’ll continue to see cap rates rise and property prices fall into next year. However, a big challenge that attendees are facing is how to bridge the gap between seller expectations and the pricing buyers will need to generate adequate returns.
To compound the issue, inflation remains at record highs in Europe which means more interest rate increases are certainly on the horizon. This will create an even more challenging environment for real estate investors that require third-party debt financing to close transactions, making all-equity buyers better positioned to execute on deals.
Logistics still dominant
Despite the macroeconomic doom and gloom, the current market still has room for certain sectors to thrive. Logistics remains the darling of the real estate world, with Europe seeing record logistics investment volumes in the first half of 2022. 20% of all real estate investment in Europe is in the logistics sector, suggesting there is still a very strong investor appetite for the asset class. The sector continues to benefit from tailwinds amplified by COVID such as the rise of e-commerce, which continues to drive occupier demand for logistics and warehouse space. Record-low inventory and high demand have meant the logistics sector has been slower to see cap rate increases than others; however, many are seeing a re-pricing period take place which is critical for investors looking to close transactions.
Sale-leasebacks gaining prominence as bank lending becomes more restrictive
Amidst all the uncertainty at EXPO Real, there was still an undercurrent of optimism among attendees. Historically, we’ve seen more sale-leaseback opportunities come to market in challenging economic environments as a result of companies seeking ways to shore up capital to support ongoing business operations and growth. With banks becoming more restrictive with lending, alternative forms of capital such as sale-leasebacks provide an immediate opportunity to plug the financing gap for companies. And with interest rates likely to continue rising into 2023, now is a great time to pursue a sale-leaseback and lock in an attractive rental rate for the long-term.
Related Topics:
You May Also Like:
An Interview with Gino Sabatini
Gino Sabatini, our Head of Investments, was recently a guest on the Net Lease Observer podcast. In the podcast, Gino discusses: His background in the restaurant business The history of W. P. Carey His view on how the investment market has changed over the years; and His outlook for 2026 and beyond Watch now An interview with Gino Sabatini, W. P. Carey, and Sean Hostert, Net Lease Observer.
The Net Lease Market Finds Its Footing
Net lease investors have been on a wild ride over the last few years. The large run-up in benchmark rates beginning in 2022 created challenges around pricing expectations. However, Jason Patterson, executive director, investments at W. P. Carey, notes that despite some trade volatility and other factors, more stability in long-term rates over the past two years has helped those on both sides of a transaction find more common ground on where pricing should land. Bid-Ask Spreads Narrow as Pricing Stabilizes For much of the reset period, sellers were anchored in 2022-era valuations, while buyers priced deals on materially wider rates, and that gap has begun to narrow. “A slightly more range-bound 10-year Treasury provides some confidence on where pricing should shake out,” says Patterson. He adds that increased capital inflows to the net lease space have also further compressed bids, driving more transactions to pencil out on both sides. Where sellers once struggled to meet the market, a more stable pricing environment has made that alignment more achievable. Tighter Credit Spreads and Sale-Leasebacks Support Deal Flow Patterson explains that credit spreads broadly had been near record lows until recently, a condition that he describes as helping keep cap rates from widening significantly. Tighter spreads benefit net lease investors both in how deals are capitalized and in the cap rates at which tenants and developers expect to transact. Patterson notes that he expects to see an increase in sale-leaseback interest driven by a pickup in private equity and M&A activity. He also adds that lower short-term rates may stimulate deal flow in private equity, and a change in ownership often serves as the catalyst for a sale-leaseback arrangement. Moving forward, Patterson points to interest rate volatility and credit as two of the most important factors for net lease investors. Rate volatility, he notes, can quickly undermine returns. He also flags credit as a persistent area of focus, noting that while recent headlines have raised broader concerns, the long-term nature of net lease real estate may make those risks more muted than in other sectors. And as the market moves into a more active phase, those who keep a close eye on both will be best positioned to capitalize on what Patterson sees as a period of growing opportunity ahead.
MIPIM 2026: Where Capital, Conviction and Opportunity Converge
As the industry gathers once again in Cannes for MIPIM 2026, the European real estate investment landscape appears to be at an important inflection point. After several years defined by volatility, repricing and constrained liquidity, there are growing signs of stabilisation — though the recovery remains uneven and market-specific. Against that backdrop, three questions are likely to dominate conversations at MIPIM this year: Are European transaction volumes expected to improve? How will the sale‑leaseback market evolve amid a significant wall of maturing debt? Which sectors appear best positioned as investors recalibrate their strategies? The Outlook for European Transaction Volumes Pricing expectations between buyers and sellers have adjusted meaningfully over the past 18–24 months, following one of the sharpest repricing cycles the European real estate market has experienced in decades. After a prolonged period of stalled activity, valuations across many markets now show clear signs of stabilisation, supported by greater transparency around interest‑rate policy and financing costs. While long‑term rates remain elevated relative to the pre‑2022 environment, the pace of change has slowed, allowing investors to underwrite returns with greater confidence and begin re‑engaging selectively with the market. This improved clarity around cost of capital is starting to translate into renewed deal momentum in several core European markets. Savills reports that European investment volumes are expected to rise by around 18% in 2026 as pricing firms up, macroeconomic conditions stabilise and institutional capital returns more consistently across the main sectors. That said, recovery is unlikely to be uniform. We continue to see divergence between markets and sectors, with liquidity gravitating toward assets where fundamentals are strongest and underwriting assumptions can be supported over the long term. Sale‑leasebacks and the Growing Need for Capital One of the most prominent themes we expect to discuss at MIPIM 2026 is the growing demand for alternative sources of capital — particularly as a significant amount of corporate and real estate debt comes due this year and next. Across Europe, many owner-occupiers are facing refinancing challenges in an environment where traditional bank lending remains selective and difficult to access. At the same time, businesses are contending with higher operating costs, investment requirements linked to competitiveness, and the need to preserve balance‑sheet flexibility. In this context, sale‑leasebacks are increasingly being viewed as a strategic financing tool. By unlocking capital tied up in real estate, owner-occupiers can redeploy funds toward growth initiatives, operational requirements and debt paydown, while retaining long‑term operational control of their assets. Sectors to Watch: Industrial and Retail When it comes to sector preferences, industrial and retail assets continue to stand out, provided they are underpinned by strong occupier fundamentals. In the industrial space, manufacturing and logistics assets that play a critical role in supply chains remain attractive. Structural trends such as nearshoring, supply‑chain resilience and e‑commerce continue to support demand in many European markets. Assets that are modern, well‑located and tailored to tenant needs are increasingly difficult to replace, reinforcing their long‑term importance. Retail also remains an area of opportunity — particularly for formats that serve non‑discretionary or value‑oriented consumer demand. Grocery‑anchored retail, DIY, and other essential retail categories have demonstrated resilience through economic cycles, supported by consistent foot traffic and defensive spending patterns. A Measured but Constructive Outlook MIPIM 2026 comes at a time when optimism is returning to European real estate markets. While challenges remain, there is growing evidence that capital is being deployed at more significant levels — particularly where opportunities are grounded in fundamentals rather than short-term trends. The conversations in Cannes this year are likely to reflect that balance: pragmatic, selective, but increasingly forward‑looking. For long‑term investors focused on durable cash flows and partnership‑driven transactions, the environment continues to present compelling opportunities.