Net Lease Investors Eye Cross-Border Opportunities and New Property Types in 2025
As interest rate volatility persists, net lease investors explore new markets and sectors
The net lease market is positioned for change in 2025, with investors monitoring trends in geographic expansion and property types, as well as shifting economic factors. While the US remains a key market for many, international opportunities are gaining ground, particularly in Mexico, as noted by Tyler Swann, managing director of investments at W. P. Carey.
“Mexico is a market we’ll be watching closely next year,” says Swann. “We’re seeing more sale-leaseback and build-to-suit opportunities there, particularly as more American and International manufacturers set up shop in the country.”
Alongside these international prospects, investors are exploring new property types and preparing for economic factors like ongoing interest rate volatility and tariffs. By keeping an eye on these trends, investors can better position themselves for what’s next, says Swann.
Geographic Expansion and Emerging Property Types
While the US and Europe remain the cornerstone of net lease investment for W. P. Carey, Swann is monitoring other international markets, such as Mexico and Canada, for growth. “Our largest transaction in 2023 was in Canada,” he says. The country’s interest rates differ from those in the US, and Swann is keeping a close watch on how this impacts market pricing with an eye to expanding further if the opportunity exists.
New opportunities in 2025 aren’t limited to geography, Swann notes. Some non-traditional property types are also getting a look from the net lease world. “We’re seeing more activity from net lease investors in the data center world,” says Swann. “Clearly, there’s a need for a tremendous amount of capital to fund the buildout of these new data centers.”
However, he adds that W. P. Carey takes a selective approach, focusing on long-term leases to single tenants to ensure returns comparable to the company’s core industrial investments.
Healthcare properties, particularly those in prime locations, are also attracting attention. “To the extent that we can find those well-located healthcare assets, I think that‘s something we’ll explore in 2025,” says Swann. Swann sees the key criteria for healthcare investments to be their proximity to population centers with favorable demographic trends and the asset’s importance to the local community.
Continued Interest Rate Volatility and an Unpredictable Market
As the net lease market heads into 2025, interest rate volatility remains a key concern for investors. Recent fluctuations in long-term Treasury rates have had a direct impact on asset pricing and overall investment strategies.
“Long-term financing rates are also critical for how we price assets with long-term leases,” says Swann. “The uncertainty surrounding interest rates is compounded by economic factors, including potential deficit spending and the risks of future inflation.”
Looking ahead, investors will need to remain flexible, evaluating opportunities, property types, and the broader economic trends to stay ahead of market shifts.
“Interest rate volatility can actually benefit public REITs like W. P. Carey,” Swann notes. “We’re less sensitive to rate movements, which allows us to close deals even in volatile environments.”
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Where Net Lease is Heading
With financing options restricted by interest rate uncertainty, corporate real estate sellers have been turning to sale-leasebacks. It’s easy to see why: these deals offer liquidity and immediacy. For the net lease sector at large, Tyler Swann, managing director, investments at W. P. Carey, is seeing US deal flow coming almost exclusively from new sale-leasebacks versus acquisitions of existing leases, a change largely driven by the changing capital markets landscape. CRE Psychology Playing Catch-up As interest rates have risen and asset values have fallen, the pricing expectations of sellers have not followed suit. That’s led the market to favor new sale-leasebacks as opposed to investment properties that are acquired from third-party landlords, Swann says. "There's a disconnect between what buyers can realistically pay given current capital markets and what a seller wants,” he says. “It takes time for psychological expectations of sellers to reset and I think we haven't seen that play out just yet, which is why those existing lease deals haven't really been moving or coming to market at all.” New sale-leaseback sellers are more realistic, comparing and choosing the costs of such a deal versus the current cost of capital, especially the added expense of raising debt in the current high interest rate environment. The benefits of the here and now – unlocking their CRE equity means it's "go time" for deals, unlike the often disparate expectations of a third-party landlord seller. Open Opportunity, With Caveats While there are fewer overall opportunities in the net-lease market compared to the last couple of years, there are fewer market challengers due to the more restricted financing options. “Plenty of investors who were very competitive just a couple of years ago, for example, were reliant on CMBS debt and are now no longer nearly as competitive as they used to be,” Swann says. “And that's given us a leg up.” Office demand continues to suffer from uncertainty, mainly from lagging return-to-office efforts and hard-to-figure valuations given the large amounts of vacant and shadow space. On the plus side, Swann views the industrial sector as the most favored by net lease investors, as strong demand post-COVID for logistics facilities persists, with companies building out their supply chains amid a more general move to on-shoring production. Earlier this year, W. P. Carey completed an approximately $468 million, 20-year lease sale-leaseback with Apotex for a portfolio of pharmaceutical manufacturing assets in the greater Toronto area. Swann points out that the combination of sector (industrial), type (new vs. existing lease) and trend (taking advantage of better cost of capital through a sale-leaseback) all led to the deal getting done. “In a lot of ways I think that Apotex deal is a good example of where the market is going,” says Swann.
What’s Next for Commercial Real Estate?
After several challenging years contending with the impacts of a global pandemic, the commercial real estate market finally seems to be healing. As noted in the latest Emerging Trends in Real Estate report from PwC and the Urban Land Institute, the Fed's 50-basis-point cut in September and subsequent 25-basis-point cut in November have generated some optimism in the CRE community that we are entering a new expansionary phase in the real estate cycle. Here are four of the top emerging trends taking shape as a result. 1. Interest Rates and Capital Cost Concerns Have Eased, but Still Remain In the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, the Fed attempted to revive the economy by lowering the federal funds rate to near zero. What followed was nearly a decade in which cheap debt became a way of life. However, starting in the spring of 2022, with inflation surging, the federal funds rate was increased 11 times, pushing the rate from zero to over 5 percent, bringing real estate investment activity to a near standstill. Reflecting on the market today, interest rates and cost of capital remain among the top concerns of respondents to the PwC Emerging Trends in Real Estate survey, but those concerns have eased since last year. While respondents largely agree that the rate cuts so far are not enough to alter deal economics fundamentally, the monetary policy movements have still injected optimism into the market. In addition, more than 80% believe that commercial mortgage rates will decrease in 2025, with 75% believing those rates will continue to decrease over the next five years. As an industry that relies heavily on leverage to get deals done, signs of lower-costing debt bode well for the future and will support more robust deal volume. That said, the Fed’s future decisions on rate cuts will depend on how inflation and the overall economic outlook evolve. 2. Acquisitions, Refinancing and Development Markets Improving The acquisitions, refinancing and development markets are slowly starting to heal, the Emerging Trends report noted, pointing to steady improvement in liquidity and more bids in the market, as well as tighter prices and debt spreads. Industry participants are also optimistic about debt conditions ahead, with lending expected to grow by 24% in 2025, indicating a full recovery to pre-pandemic levels and further signaling that normalization and stability are on the horizon. Another key factor market participants are looking at is the stabilization of recent real estate price declines. Cap rates began rising when prices peaked in mid-2022 and continued increasing until plateauing in early 2024. The most recent figures suggest prices might be turning positive again, although this may simply reflect that higher-quality real estate is accounting for a larger share of transactions. 3. Occupied Space Now Exceeds Pre-Pandemic Levels in Most Sectors The pandemic created significant changes in how tenants use space, and where. There are fewer office workers commuting to the workplace, more consumers shopping online and more goods being stored in warehouses. However, despite these changes, overall demand for space has more than recovered from the pandemic and remains robust across most property types, with the exception of office. When looking at the future of the retail market, survey respondents indicated that location is key. While newness is a significant priority for some property types like office, retail spaces tend to derive much of their value and demand based on their location. Frequently, older retail centers command the best locations, preventing newer entrants from gaining a foothold and making them more attractive to investors. In the industrial sector, net absorption has been positive, meaning more space is occupied than ever before. Yet demand has not kept pace with new supply, leading to an increase in vacant space. This has given more negotiating power to tenants, who are increasingly seeking spaces with more modern features such as high energy efficiency, LED lighting and higher clear heights. However, this “flight to quality” trend should abate slightly as the pipeline for new product slows and the supply/demand dynamics balance out. 4. There Is Less Movement Due to the High Costs of Relocation The pandemic not only created a shift in the demand for commercial property, but also shifted where people want to live and work. After years of increasing interstate migration, many areas are experiencing slower population growth or even outright population losses due to soaring home prices, fewer renters having the ability to transition to home ownership, and fewer households relocating for new jobs. The report notes that climate change is also becoming a greater factor in location decisions. The report points to a Freddie Mac analysis that shows natural disaster concerns have prompted one in seven households to consider other places to live. Many commercial properties are also at risk of damage from natural disasters and commercial property owners are facing increasing insurance premiums as a result. Conclusion As the real estate market transitions into a new cycle in 2025, we remain cautiously optimistic for the future. With change comes opportunity, and we’re excited to see how the landscape evolves as we enter a phase of recovery and renewal. With more than 50 years of experience operating in all market cycles, we’re well positioned to continue helping companies unlock otherwise illiquid capital from their real estate assets. If you're interested in learning more, contact us today.
Corporate Capital Outlook - Q3 2024
Written by Colliers Corporate Capital Solutions, the report details the current state of the global economy and how that’s impacting the net lease sector. The report also features contributed content from Christopher Mertlitz, Head of European Investments at W. P. Carey, on what to expect as we enter a new real estate cycle and the outlook for sale-leasebacks.