What’s Next for Commercial Real Estate?
Four emerging trends reshaping the industry in 2025
After several challenging years contending with the impacts of a global pandemic, the commercial real estate market finally seems to be healing. As noted in the latest Emerging Trends in Real Estate report from PwC and the Urban Land Institute, the Fed's 50-basis-point cut in September and subsequent 25-basis-point cut in November have generated some optimism in the CRE community that we are entering a new expansionary phase in the real estate cycle. Here are four of the top emerging trends taking shape as a result.
1. Interest Rates and Capital Cost Concerns Have Eased, but Still Remain
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, the Fed attempted to revive the economy by lowering the federal funds rate to near zero. What followed was nearly a decade in which cheap debt became a way of life. However, starting in the spring of 2022, with inflation surging, the federal funds rate was increased 11 times, pushing the rate from zero to over 5 percent, bringing real estate investment activity to a near standstill.
Reflecting on the market today, interest rates and cost of capital remain among the top concerns of respondents to the PwC Emerging Trends in Real Estate survey, but those concerns have eased since last year. While respondents largely agree that the rate cuts so far are not enough to alter deal economics fundamentally, the monetary policy movements have still injected optimism into the market. In addition, more than 80% believe that commercial mortgage rates will decrease in 2025, with 75% believing those rates will continue to decrease over the next five years. As an industry that relies heavily on leverage to get deals done, signs of lower-costing debt bode well for the future and will support more robust deal volume. That said, the Fed’s future decisions on rate cuts will depend on how inflation and the overall economic outlook evolve.
2. Acquisitions, Refinancing and Development Markets Improving
The acquisitions, refinancing and development markets are slowly starting to heal, the Emerging Trends report noted, pointing to steady improvement in liquidity and more bids in the market, as well as tighter prices and debt spreads. Industry participants are also optimistic about debt conditions ahead, with lending expected to grow by 24% in 2025, indicating a full recovery to pre-pandemic levels and further signaling that normalization and stability are on the horizon.
Another key factor market participants are looking at is the stabilization of recent real estate price declines. Cap rates began rising when prices peaked in mid-2022 and continued increasing until plateauing in early 2024. The most recent figures suggest prices might be turning positive again, although this may simply reflect that higher-quality real estate is accounting for a larger share of transactions.
3. Occupied Space Now Exceeds Pre-Pandemic Levels in Most Sectors
The pandemic created significant changes in how tenants use space, and where. There are fewer office workers commuting to the workplace, more consumers shopping online and more goods being stored in warehouses. However, despite these changes, overall demand for space has more than recovered from the pandemic and remains robust across most property types, with the exception of office.
When looking at the future of the retail market, survey respondents indicated that location is key. While newness is a significant priority for some property types like office, retail spaces tend to derive much of their value and demand based on their location. Frequently, older retail centers command the best locations, preventing newer entrants from gaining a foothold and making them more attractive to investors.
In the industrial sector, net absorption has been positive, meaning more space is occupied than ever before. Yet demand has not kept pace with new supply, leading to an increase in vacant space. This has given more negotiating power to tenants, who are increasingly seeking spaces with more modern features such as high energy efficiency, LED lighting and higher clear heights. However, this “flight to quality” trend should abate slightly as the pipeline for new product slows and the supply/demand dynamics balance out.
4. There Is Less Movement Due to the High Costs of Relocation
The pandemic not only created a shift in the demand for commercial property, but also shifted where people want to live and work. After years of increasing interstate migration, many areas are experiencing slower population growth or even outright population losses due to soaring home prices, fewer renters having the ability to transition to home ownership, and fewer households relocating for new jobs.
The report notes that climate change is also becoming a greater factor in location decisions. The report points to a Freddie Mac analysis that shows natural disaster concerns have prompted one in seven households to consider other places to live. Many commercial properties are also at risk of damage from natural disasters and commercial property owners are facing increasing insurance premiums as a result.
Conclusion
As the real estate market transitions into a new cycle in 2025, we remain cautiously optimistic for the future. With change comes opportunity, and we’re excited to see how the landscape evolves as we enter a phase of recovery and renewal. With more than 50 years of experience operating in all market cycles, we’re well positioned to continue helping companies unlock otherwise illiquid capital from their real estate assets. If you're interested in learning more, contact us today.
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Three Strategic Uses of Sale-leaseback Capital for CFOs
There are several reasons businesses of all sizes may choose to monetize their owned real estate through a sale-leaseback. A sale-leaseback is an effective financing tool to unlock seemingly illiquid capital that can be reinvested into a company’s core business to fund both internal and external growth. It can be a particularly useful tool when traditional debt financing is difficult to secure or available at less attractive terms. Another key benefit is that the proceeds from a sale-leaseback can be used for essentially anything – from improving a company’s cost of capital to paying off debt. This flexibility enables CFOs to allocate sale-leaseback proceeds to the areas where their business needs it most at any given time. In today’s economic environment, CFOs can strategically leverage sale-leaseback capital to address several of the biggest concerns – and opportunities – that businesses are currently facing, including M&A, inflation and capital raising. Here’s how: Finance M&A In an M&A market that remains highly competitive, sale-leasebacks can be a useful tool to give companies an edge against their peers. Sale-leasebacks are an attractive means to finance M&A by enabling companies to take advantage of the value arbitrage between their real estate valuation and EBITDA multiple. When completing a sale-leaseback concurrently with an acquisition, the proceeds can effectively “buy down” the acquisition multiple and boost returns. In addition, leveraging sale-leaseback capital enables companies to avoid many traditional debt challenges like refinancing risk and balloon payments. By pursuing a sale-leaseback now, companies can also lock in an attractive rental rate for the long-term while cap rates remain low and before interest rates rise significantly. Counteract Inflation Inflation continues to surge at its fastest pace in 40 years. In April, the Consumer Price Index continued its upward trajectory, increasing 8.3% from one year ago. While the Fed has made some efforts to fight inflation, there is still a lot to be done to get prices down to more normal and stable levels. This is bad news for businesses, who are dealing with dwindling cash flows as costs continue to rise for raw materials, manufacturing and overhead. However, savvy CFOs can leverage sale-leaseback capital to help fund initiatives to mitigate the negative impacts of sustained high inflation. Sale-leaseback capital can be invested into automation equipment, new production lines or other areas with return on capital in excess of cap rates to increase production line efficiency and maintain operating margins despite increased pressure on costs. Unlock Illiquid Capital to Fund Internal Business Growth In today’s more volatile environment, having access to capital is critical to not only expanding externally through M&A, but also to investing in existing business lines. By pursuing a sale-leaseback, CFOs can unlock liquidity on a business’s balance sheet and reinvest those proceeds back into the core business, all while maintaining long-term occupancy and operational control of the real estate. Companies can launch new products, acquire additional equipment, fund R&D and grow their market share in existing business lines. This organic growth can in turn help attract top talent, particularly in the current tight labor market.
Top 3 Financial Strategies for CFOs to Fund Business
Inflation is currently at 8.2% year to year, way above its 2% benchmark. The Fed has increased interest rates three times in a row to try and keep inflation under control, with promises of further interest rate increases to achieve a terminal target of 4.6% in 2023. Higher interest rates have a direct impact on your funding efforts. Increasing rates reduces spending power, causing stock prices to fall almost immediately while increasing the cost of debt. In an ideal world, you would be able to make all the money you need by simply selling goods and services. But the general business strategy is that you need money to make money, which means getting external funding. Finding affordable funding can be a difficult strategic decision for any chief financial officer, especially in the current economy. While equity and debt are major sources of business funding, a sale-leaseback is a good option to consider when you are looking for more affordable financing. Here's a closer look at the pros and cons of debt, equity and sale-leasebacks and why a sale-leaseback may be the best financial strategy for your company in the prevailing economy. Public markets capital raise (equity and debt) One of the ways to raise funds is through debt or equity financing. With debt financing, you issue corporate bonds to the public and pay back the full loan amount plus interest upon maturity of the bond. Corporate bonds attract a higher rate of interest than government bonds because of the perceived higher risk, meaning more costs for you. Equity financing involves selling company shares in the stock market and paying the equity holders a dividend or return should the stock value appreciate. Your obligation to pay earnings to equity holders will depend on the types of shares held. Preferential shareholders receive payments first, while common shareholders get paid after creditors and preferred shareholders. Pros You can raise large sums of money from the public. Interest rates paid are typically lower than bank interest rates. Stock issuance does not require you to pay investors. Payments are based on business performance. Interest on debt financing is tax deductible but there are limitations. Cons The current rising interest rates have caused a general fall in share prices, making equity funding a less ideal way to raise funds. Equity raises dilute stocks since each shareholder owns a small piece of the company. The current economic slowdown makes it harder for businesses to get debt financing. Even when you do, the cost of debt is high and you have to pay lenders regardless of the performance of your business. While you do not have to repay equity, shareholders are entitled to a share of a company's earnings. Dividends paid to investors are not tax-deductible like in debt financing. Investors are a huge part of your company's decision-making. Outside funding can cause tension between your company and investors. Loans A loan can be handy when you need working capital or funds for short-term needs, especially when you are running a high-growth business. In this case, you can borrow money privately, for instance, from a bank. Pros The market has a variety of lenders you can chose from. Interest on debt financing is tax-deductible but there are limitations. Private borrowing can help boost your credit score. Cons Interest rates are rising, making it difficult to find a good rate for your loan. Banks are increasing their lending restrictions. Refinancing a loan can be more expensive as interest rates keep rising. You have to repay lenders even when your company isn't doing well, which can result in bankruptcy or litigation. Debt and equity finance can be risky. Failure to repay public debt or a loan can result in default or bankruptcy which affects corporate credit scores. Equity financing also has its downsides since you miss out on tax benefits and also risk ownership dissolution since new and old investors expect a share of corporate profits. These cons are a great reason why sale-leasebacks are the more attractive option. Sale-leaseback What is a sale-leaseback? A sale-leaseback, also called a sale-and-leaseback, is an agreement between you and an investor where you sell your real estate for 100% of the value of your property and simultaneously enter into a long-term lease for the same property. A sale-leaseback is not classified as debt or equity but as a hybrid debt product. You can access much-needed capital when you sell your real estate within a sale-leaseback agreement without increasing your debt. A sale-leaseback is the best financing option when you have cash invested in your property or land that you could use to better your cash flow or invest in profitable business projects while maintaining operational control of your asset. A sale-leaseback is one of the best financial strategies for CFOs to fund business as it can improve your financial statements. By enabling you to pay down debt and improve cash flows, sale-leasebacks can improve your company’s balance sheet health. Pros Rental payments from a sale-leaseback qualify for tax deductions. You transfer the volatility risks of owning your real estate to the new owner. The agreement involves a long-term lease at your agreed-upon rental rate, providing stability for the future. Sale-leasebacks generally fetch a lower rate in the current environment when compared to debt financing. You get a long-term capital partner who can fund future expansions, renovations and build-to-suits to help grow your business. If you're not in the business of owning real estate, you can unlock 100% of cash in illiquid real estate at market value and reinvest it in profitable areas of business. You can maintain operational control of your real estate after selling it. A sale-leaseback gives you immediate access to capital to reinvest in your core business operations compared to a loan or equity financing which may take some time. Cons If you've never done a sale-leaseback, you may not even know how to start. W. P. Carey can help. We specialize in acquiring real estate and creating custom sale-leaseback structures to meet your unique needs. You need to own your real estate assets to pursue a sale-leaseback, so this type of financing may not be possible for some businesses. We're here to help with your sale-leaseback needs If you are looking for more cash flow for your business, you could take the traditional route with capital raising or a loan or go for a sale-leaseback. A sale-leaseback may be the more attractive strategy to secure the financial flexibility you need to pursue your strategic business goals. Learn more about sale-leasebacks and how other companies use them as a powerful capital solution to fund business growth. Think a sale-leaseback is right for your company? Contact our team!
What the Latest Rate Cuts Mean for the Net Lease Sector
The persistent high cost of capital, along with the fact that large amounts of corporate debt are set to mature, have been ongoing challenges for investors. The Fed’s recent rate cut – the first in over four years – leaves many speculating how investors will fare. “Impacts from these changes will take some time to see,” says Zachary Pasanen, managing director, investments, at W. P. Carey. “I don’t necessarily believe we’ll experience a rush of investment overnight. Everyone is still in the process of figuring out what the environment will look like, and there are also geopolitical situations at play.” Cap Rates and Market Sentiment Pasanen suggests a positive outlook for the net lease sector, noting that while volumes are down compared to the previous year, the sector’s resilience remains. He explains that net lease investments function similarly to bond instruments, and with rates being cut, he doesn’t believe the risk profile changes that dramatically. “I think the risk paradigm is still very much in that 7%-8% cap range,” says Pasanen, noting that while conditions may eventually spur more net lease activity, it won’t take place immediately. He also cautions that investors should not get too caught up in “rate cut mania” and risk comprising spread. Focusing on fundamentals and maintaining a disciplined investment approach remain as important as ever. Relaxed Interest Rates and the Financing Landscape Funding business growth and quickly accessing capital have left many corporates looking for alternatives to traditional financing. With the Fed’s recent rate cut, Pasanen believes that sale-leasebacks will continue to be an attractive option. He further notes that while there have been pockets of “stress” in the market, these aren’t the same as “distress.” “Many lenders were willing to accommodate borrowers and work with them,” says Pasanen. “This group made it through this past year and is saying, ‘Okay, I’ve extended the maturity of my debt and identified some dislocation among acquisition targets, and now might be a good time to raise capital and grow my business.’” However, as these businesses return to banks to raise more capital, financial institutions may have reached a limit in how much they can help, a scenario where sale-leasebacks can be beneficial. “W. P. Carey has been in business for over 50 years,” says Pasanen. “We’ve been through numerous market cycles and have a lot of capital to deploy. As the market recalibrates, we’ll continue to do what we do best – work with corporate owners to unlock the value of their real estate through sale-leasebacks.”