Retail
MIPIM 2026: Where Capital, Conviction and Opportunity Converge
As the industry gathers once again in Cannes for MIPIM 2026, the European real estate investment landscape appears to be at an important inflection point. After several years defined by volatility, repricing and constrained liquidity, there are growing signs of stabilisation — though the recovery remains uneven and market-specific. Against that backdrop, three questions are likely to dominate conversations at MIPIM this year: Are European transaction volumes expected to improve? How will the sale‑leaseback market evolve amid a significant wall of maturing debt? Which sectors appear best positioned as investors recalibrate their strategies? The Outlook for European Transaction Volumes Pricing expectations between buyers and sellers have adjusted meaningfully over the past 18–24 months, following one of the sharpest repricing cycles the European real estate market has experienced in decades. After a prolonged period of stalled activity, valuations across many markets now show clear signs of stabilisation, supported by greater transparency around interest‑rate policy and financing costs. While long‑term rates remain elevated relative to the pre‑2022 environment, the pace of change has slowed, allowing investors to underwrite returns with greater confidence and begin re‑engaging selectively with the market. This improved clarity around cost of capital is starting to translate into renewed deal momentum in several core European markets. Savills reports that European investment volumes are expected to rise by around 18% in 2026 as pricing firms up, macroeconomic conditions stabilise and institutional capital returns more consistently across the main sectors. That said, recovery is unlikely to be uniform. We continue to see divergence between markets and sectors, with liquidity gravitating toward assets where fundamentals are strongest and underwriting assumptions can be supported over the long term. Sale‑leasebacks and the Growing Need for Capital One of the most prominent themes we expect to discuss at MIPIM 2026 is the growing demand for alternative sources of capital — particularly as a significant amount of corporate and real estate debt comes due this year and next. Across Europe, many owner-occupiers are facing refinancing challenges in an environment where traditional bank lending remains selective and difficult to access. At the same time, businesses are contending with higher operating costs, investment requirements linked to competitiveness, and the need to preserve balance‑sheet flexibility. In this context, sale‑leasebacks are increasingly being viewed as a strategic financing tool. By unlocking capital tied up in real estate, owner-occupiers can redeploy funds toward growth initiatives, operational requirements and debt paydown, while retaining long‑term operational control of their assets. Sectors to Watch: Industrial and Retail When it comes to sector preferences, industrial and retail assets continue to stand out, provided they are underpinned by strong occupier fundamentals. In the industrial space, manufacturing and logistics assets that play a critical role in supply chains remain attractive. Structural trends such as nearshoring, supply‑chain resilience and e‑commerce continue to support demand in many European markets. Assets that are modern, well‑located and tailored to tenant needs are increasingly difficult to replace, reinforcing their long‑term importance. Retail also remains an area of opportunity — particularly for formats that serve non‑discretionary or value‑oriented consumer demand. Grocery‑anchored retail, DIY, and other essential retail categories have demonstrated resilience through economic cycles, supported by consistent foot traffic and defensive spending patterns. A Measured but Constructive Outlook MIPIM 2026 comes at a time when optimism is returning to European real estate markets. While challenges remain, there is growing evidence that capital is being deployed at more significant levels — particularly where opportunities are grounded in fundamentals rather than short-term trends. The conversations in Cannes this year are likely to reflect that balance: pragmatic, selective, but increasingly forward‑looking. For long‑term investors focused on durable cash flows and partnership‑driven transactions, the environment continues to present compelling opportunities.
Is a Sale-leaseback Right for Your Business?
Economic uncertainty and restricted debt markets are leading more corporate occupiers to explore alternative financing options such as sale-leasebacks to secure funds. In a sale-leaseback, a company sells its real estate to an investor for cash and simultaneously enters into a long-term lease thereby unlocking otherwise illiquid capital to redeploy into higher growth segments of its core business. A sale-leaseback is an innovative tool that can be especially advantageous in today’s market where debt financing may be less attractive but is your company and your real estate the right fit? Read on to determine if (and when) a sale-leaseback is right for your business. The Criteria for a Sale-leaseback Own your real estate The key criterion for a sale-leaseback is real estate ownership. One of the primary drivers for a company to undertake a sale-leaseback is to unlock 100% of the real estate’s value while maintaining long-term operational control of the asset. By selling your property and leasing it back, you remove a non-incoming producing, fixed asset (real estate) and unlock liquid capital to reinvest into your business. Own the right type of real estate While the mainstream commercial property sectors of industrial, retail and office are most common in a sale-leaseback transaction, other specialty assets like life sciences and data centers have expanded the pool of investable assets. Make sure it's critical to your operations Investors look for specific value-add characteristics before buying a property. For instance, it’s best if your asset is mission-critical—in other words, an essential revenue driver for your business. Potential investors will also likely consider the property’s condition and age (high-quality, modern assets with sustainable features will be more valuable), location (think proximity to transportation routes) and size. Desired size will depend on the investor and often vary by property type. Retail properties for example tend to be smaller (perhaps around 20,000 square feet), compared to an industrial asset that might be upwards of 250,000 square feet. Additional space to expand the facility is also a plus for investors. However, the criticality of the asset to your operations is often more important than the asset type or size itself. Have a strong underlying credit story (sub-IG credits welcome!) You’ll attract real estate investors if you have a strong underlying credit and revenue history. Due to the long length of leases typically associated with sale-leasebacks, the investor will want to be confident that you can consistently pay rent throughout the lease term. However, this doesn’t mean your company must be investment grade. Many investors can work with sellers that are sub-investment grade so long as the underlying fundamentals of the business are solid. Institutional investors with strong underwriting capabilities will be able to evaluate all credits and assess your financial statements in order to get comfortable with pursuing a sale-leaseback deal. Be willing to sign a long-term lease, but ask the right questions upfront The last criterion for a sale-leaseback is that you must be willing to sign a long-term lease with the investor, typically 10-30 years. Before signing a long-term lease, it’s important to consider some critical factors, including: Space requirements: Evaluate your current and future space requirements to ensure the leased property will accommodate your needs for the duration of the lease. If additional space is needed, it’s possible your sale-leaseback partner will work with you on an expansion or build-to-suit of a brand-new asset. Renewal options: Does the lease come with renewal options? Find out the renewal terms for which the lessor is willing to extend the lease period so that you can continue occupying the property once the initial period for the lease expires. Maintenance and repairs: Know who's responsible for any maintenance and repair needs of the leased commercial property. In a triple-net lease, for instance, the tenant is responsible for all insurance, taxes and maintenance expenses, which also means the tenant maintains full operational control. By considering all the above factors, you can make an informed decision and confidently enter into a long-term lease. When to Consider a Sale-leaseback? While sale-leaseback financing is an excellent alternative to loans and other debt financing, it's not ideal for every company in every circumstance. Here are a few examples of when it makes sense to consider a sale-leaseback for your business. When you need capital for growth Sale-leasebacks are an excellent tool to unlock cash for growth initiatives, particularly for companies with limited access to traditional forms of financing. Proceeds from sale-leasebacks can be channeled to investments in new equipment, technology, personnel or additional facilities. And the best part is that a sale-leaseback enables you to raise capital without losing control of your property. To support M&A If you're considering an M&A transaction, you may need to raise additional capital to fund the purchase of the target company—or to pay down debt following an acquisition—which may be the case for companies and private equity firms alike. Usually, the cost of capital for commercial real estate investors is quite competitive as a real estate investor will acquire your property at market rate, creating an immediate arbitrage between the real estate multiple and the acquired business EBITDA multiple. To strengthen your balance sheet A sale-leaseback can help strengthen your business’ balance sheet by shoring up much-needed cash. You can use the raised capital to pay off existing debt, boost your debt-to-equity ratio or invest in other revenue-driving areas of your business. Remember the composition of your business’ balance sheet determines how lenders, investors and shareholders view your company's risk profile. If you have less debt, your business will be more attractive to these parties. Final thoughts A sale-leaseback transaction is an excellent alternative for companies, especially during periods when traditional sources of financing are limited. When choosing a sale-leaseback partner, consider an experienced, long-term investor who can buy on an all-equity basis and who is willing to work with you throughout your lease (and beyond). W. P. Carey has been a leader in sale-leasebacks since 1973 and is well-positioned to continue helping companies unlock capital even in today’s challenging economic environment. Maximize your real estate and unlock immediate capital by contacting our team today!
'Still Bullish' on Net Lease Retail Despite Economic Uncertainty
Despite some economic ebbs and flows as of late, certain sectors of net lease retail, particularly those more immune to tariff concerns such as service-based businesses, remain attractive to investors who are ready to deploy capital, W. P. Carey’s Michael Fitzgerald told GlobeSt at ICSC Las Vegas last week. In this video, you'll hear: How Fitzgerald remains bullish on net lease retail amid the changing landscape over the last year; Why sale-leasebacks continue to be a popular deal type, and which types of retailers should consider them; and What sectors are seeing and will see strong demand from investors in 2025. Watch now An interview with Michael Fitzgerald, W. P. Carey, and Holly Amaya, GlobeSt.com.
ICSC Las Vegas Preview
ICSC Las Vegas, one of the largest commercial real estate gatherings, will again convene the industry’s leading professionals and retailers next week. Over 30,000 attendees will gather for networking, deal-making and insights into how the retail real estate industry will fare amid a volatile and uncertain economic environment. Tariffs, shifts in consumer sentiment and sale-leaseback opportunities will be among the biggest topics discussed at the conference. Outlined below is an overview of each. Tariffs add pressure and uncertainty for retailers Uncertainty surrounding tariffs is expected to have a substantial impact on the retail real estate industry. The National Retail Federation announced it expects the growth of U.S. retail sales to slow down this year due to consumer anxiety and inflation, with an outsized impact on smaller retailers and certain industries including textiles and electronics. While the long-term impact of tariff policies is unclear, retailers ultimately will have to determine how much of the additional costs they can absorb versus passing on to consumers. These decisions could have significant impacts on retailers’ balance sheets and ability to remain operational, affecting overall investment in the sector. Consumer sentiment shifts will impact investor demand Shifting consumer preferences continue to present both opportunities and challenges for retailers. Uncertainty surrounding the future of the economy has made consumers more budget conscious and focused on necessities. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, essential goods account for 65% of consumer spending. As a result, retailers will likely continue to show interest in grocery-anchored shopping centers, which continue to remain among the best-performing retail property types. E-commerce also continues to redefine retail. As more consumers shift their spending online, retailers like Macy’s are consolidating locations and shrinking their footprints. For investors seeking stability, this means targeting markets with strong population and job growth—where retail assets are most likely to perform well over the long term. Sale-leasebacks remain a viable financing option Despite economic uncertainty, the retail sale-leaseback market continues to grow—thanks to its clear advantages over traditional debt. By unlocking the full market value of their real estate, retailers can reinvest proceeds into their core business and drive stronger returns. Sale-leasebacks also provide long-term capital with no refinancing risk and typically without the restrictive debt covenants or balloon payments that come with conventional financing. In today’s climate, where liquidity and balance sheet flexibility are paramount, that kind of stability is more valuable than ever.
The Future of Net Lease Retail
Retail investors in 2025 face shifting market conditions, including tariff concerns, interest rate volatility, higher construction costs, and increased institutional competition. According to Michael Fitzgerald, executive director and head of US retail investments at W. P. Carey, these forces will continue to influence retail investments in the months ahead. “You have many factors pushing cap rates in different directions, with new entrants and fresh capital coming into the market,” says Fitzgerald. “That increased demand naturally drives rates down. But at the same time, rising 10-year interest rates and investors trying to protect their spread are pushing cap rates up. In the end, we’ve actually seen some stability since this time last year.” Still, in the current conditions, investors are reassessing how they evaluate risk, structure leases, and identify long-term value. Pressure Points Grow Rising construction and financing costs as well as the increasing cost of imported goods have become pressure points across the sector. According to Fitzgerald, those costs translate to higher rents, especially for new sale-leaseback deals. Even with those increases, Fitzgerald emphasizes that the need to ensure profitability still holds up at the store level. “We need to make sure the metrics still make sense,” he says. Additionally, inflation has made flat leases a tough sell for investors. “It’s fair to say the age of flat leases is over,” adds Fitzgerald. “Outside of grocery, there’s really not much appetite for retail leases with flat escalations.” Sale-leaseback Opportunities Remain Despite these headwinds, the retail sale-leaseback market has continued to see growth because the structure has basic advantages over other forms of financing. Sale-leasebacks offer long-term capital with no refinancing risk and typically without the restrictive debt covenants or balloon payments of traditional debt. As a result, companies that need capital and have a real estate footprint will continue to tap this form of financing despite overall higher cap rates. According to Fitzgerald, the best candidates for sale-leasebacks are growing retailers in healthy retail segments. This includes companies that provide discount non-discretionary products and services, convenience stores, service-based segments and fitness. How Disciplined Investors Move Forward When evaluating retail assets, Fitzgerald emphasizes the EBITDAR-to-rent ratio as a key metric. “It’s the single most important metric for understanding whether a retail location is a good long-term investment. Locations with a history of consistent profit will tend to stay open and can support a fair amount of rent.” Beyond that, Fitzgerald highlights that W. P. Carey also looks at the rent relative to market and the cost basis of the property relative to its construction cost or replacement cost. The corporate credit profile also plays a major role. Fitzgerald emphasizes he often looks for companies with strong credit, market leadership, conservative capitalization, solid management, a proven track record of success, and a conservative approach to growth. “W. P. Carey has a strong history of smart credit underwriting, and in some cases, our deep understanding of credit allows us to pursue investment ideas others will not.” Despite changing market conditions, Fitzgerald believes disciplined investors still have room to thrive. For instance, he points to W. P. Carey’s access to capital, as well as their overall balance sheet strength. “We are differentiated by our large balance sheet that allows us to make all-cash offers at large scale without any financing contingencies. This enables us to consistently offer certainty of close, which is often the most important factor sellers point to when choosing a sale-leaseback partner.”
Will the Net Lease Market Thrive in 2025?
The net lease industry has faced significant challenges in recent years, grappling with widespread economic uncertainty, soaring inflation and elevated interest rates leading to muted growth. However, a turning point came in the second half of 2024, when the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates, ushering in lower cost debt and injecting some optimism into the market. While most industry experts believe net lease is poised for an upswing in 2025, the extent of the recovery remains in question. As the industry gears up to “thrive in ‘25”, here are three predictions for the year ahead. Transaction volume will likely increase, but uncertainty around interest rates will remain After three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve last year, real estate investors have gained more confidence in the market, signaling the beginning of a turnaround for transaction volume. Colliers latest outlook forecasts a 25-33% growth in aggregate volume in 2025, driven by a strong economy, improving fundamentals and growing demand for key asset classes. The bid-ask spread between buyers and sellers will also continue to narrow in 2025, supporting more robust investment activity. However, the predicted boost in transaction volume is largely tied to the future of interest rates which is uncertain. The timing and pace of further rate decisions will depend on many factors, including the impact of the incoming administration’s policies – mainly surrounding tariffs and immigration – on inflation. Net lease investors will explore new property types as technology and innovation drive trends Shifting economic factors and trends will also likely lead to a change in where net lease investors will look to allocate their capital. One of the fastest growing sectors over the past year has been data centers, which have seen a huge uptick in demand because of growing digital infrastructure needs and the advent of artificial intelligence. The average vacancy rate among primary North American data center markets in 2024 hit a record low of 2.8%, according to CBRE. The firm also forecasts the average preleasing rate for data centers to rise to 90% or more in 2025. Another sector to watch is healthcare, with an aging population, growing healthcare spending and new technologies supporting increased investor demand. In particular, medical outpatient buildings are well-positioned to benefit from these trends, in addition to shifting consumer preferences for accessing healthcare in more convenient locations. Industrial and retail will remain steady as positive tailwinds support demand Despite new sectors potentially drawing investor interest, the net lease sector will remain underpinned by two of its core property types – industrial and retail. Driven by e-commerce needs, warehouses and other industrial real estate properties are still in demand. In Q3 2024, industrial vacancy rates dipped slightly to 6.7%, according to Moody’s CRE. Furthermore, changes in trade policy will likely boost demand for industrial facilities near the U.S.-Mexico border – bolstering markets such as San Antonio, Austin and Dallas/Fort Worth. Retail enters the new year with the lowest vacancy rate of any commercial real estate sector and will remain steady throughout 2025. Demand for retail continues to be primarily driven by location – with assets in densely populated areas garnering the most investor interest. Increased consumer spending as a result of easing inflation will also be a positive tailwind for retail growth in 2025.
What’s Next for Commercial Real Estate?
After several challenging years contending with the impacts of a global pandemic, the commercial real estate market finally seems to be healing. As noted in the latest Emerging Trends in Real Estate report from PwC and the Urban Land Institute, the Fed's 50-basis-point cut in September and subsequent 25-basis-point cut in November have generated some optimism in the CRE community that we are entering a new expansionary phase in the real estate cycle. Here are four of the top emerging trends taking shape as a result. 1. Interest Rates and Capital Cost Concerns Have Eased, but Still Remain In the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, the Fed attempted to revive the economy by lowering the federal funds rate to near zero. What followed was nearly a decade in which cheap debt became a way of life. However, starting in the spring of 2022, with inflation surging, the federal funds rate was increased 11 times, pushing the rate from zero to over 5 percent, bringing real estate investment activity to a near standstill. Reflecting on the market today, interest rates and cost of capital remain among the top concerns of respondents to the PwC Emerging Trends in Real Estate survey, but those concerns have eased since last year. While respondents largely agree that the rate cuts so far are not enough to alter deal economics fundamentally, the monetary policy movements have still injected optimism into the market. In addition, more than 80% believe that commercial mortgage rates will decrease in 2025, with 75% believing those rates will continue to decrease over the next five years. As an industry that relies heavily on leverage to get deals done, signs of lower-costing debt bode well for the future and will support more robust deal volume. That said, the Fed’s future decisions on rate cuts will depend on how inflation and the overall economic outlook evolve. 2. Acquisitions, Refinancing and Development Markets Improving The acquisitions, refinancing and development markets are slowly starting to heal, the Emerging Trends report noted, pointing to steady improvement in liquidity and more bids in the market, as well as tighter prices and debt spreads. Industry participants are also optimistic about debt conditions ahead, with lending expected to grow by 24% in 2025, indicating a full recovery to pre-pandemic levels and further signaling that normalization and stability are on the horizon. Another key factor market participants are looking at is the stabilization of recent real estate price declines. Cap rates began rising when prices peaked in mid-2022 and continued increasing until plateauing in early 2024. The most recent figures suggest prices might be turning positive again, although this may simply reflect that higher-quality real estate is accounting for a larger share of transactions. 3. Occupied Space Now Exceeds Pre-Pandemic Levels in Most Sectors The pandemic created significant changes in how tenants use space, and where. There are fewer office workers commuting to the workplace, more consumers shopping online and more goods being stored in warehouses. However, despite these changes, overall demand for space has more than recovered from the pandemic and remains robust across most property types, with the exception of office. When looking at the future of the retail market, survey respondents indicated that location is key. While newness is a significant priority for some property types like office, retail spaces tend to derive much of their value and demand based on their location. Frequently, older retail centers command the best locations, preventing newer entrants from gaining a foothold and making them more attractive to investors. In the industrial sector, net absorption has been positive, meaning more space is occupied than ever before. Yet demand has not kept pace with new supply, leading to an increase in vacant space. This has given more negotiating power to tenants, who are increasingly seeking spaces with more modern features such as high energy efficiency, LED lighting and higher clear heights. However, this “flight to quality” trend should abate slightly as the pipeline for new product slows and the supply/demand dynamics balance out. 4. There Is Less Movement Due to the High Costs of Relocation The pandemic not only created a shift in the demand for commercial property, but also shifted where people want to live and work. After years of increasing interstate migration, many areas are experiencing slower population growth or even outright population losses due to soaring home prices, fewer renters having the ability to transition to home ownership, and fewer households relocating for new jobs. The report notes that climate change is also becoming a greater factor in location decisions. The report points to a Freddie Mac analysis that shows natural disaster concerns have prompted one in seven households to consider other places to live. Many commercial properties are also at risk of damage from natural disasters and commercial property owners are facing increasing insurance premiums as a result. Conclusion As the real estate market transitions into a new cycle in 2025, we remain cautiously optimistic for the future. With change comes opportunity, and we’re excited to see how the landscape evolves as we enter a phase of recovery and renewal. With more than 50 years of experience operating in all market cycles, we’re well positioned to continue helping companies unlock otherwise illiquid capital from their real estate assets. If you're interested in learning more, contact us today.
‘We’re Bullish On Net Lease Retail’
Investors are flocking to the net lease sector anew as the Fed pauses its rate actions and cap rates stabilize, W. P. Carey’s Michael Fitzgerald told GlobeSt. GlobeSt's Holly Amaya spoke with Fitzgerald at ICSC Las Vegas about the state of retail net lease and what has changed in the sector from last year. In this video, you’ll learn: Why he continues to be bullish on net lease retail, What an increase in cap rates has meant for investment, and How the sector will fare in 2024 and beyond. Watch now An interview with Michael Fitzgerald, W. P. Carey, and Holly Amaya, GlobeSt.com.
Countdown to ICSC Las Vegas
ICSC Las Vegas, one of the largest tradeshows for the retail industry, is on the horizon with an expected 30,000 attendees eager to network and reconnect face-to-face with industry leaders and peers. After a somewhat sluggish 2023, attendees will be looking to the conference to shed some light on the retail landscape and offer insights on new trends and opportunities within the sector. Consumer spending, retail vacancies and sale-leaseback activity will be among the most pressing topics discussed at the show. Here's an overview of each: Consumer spending remains steady Despite inflationary concerns, consumer spending has remained steady over the past year, as core retail sales, excluding gasoline, food service and auto vehicle purchases, increased by 3.3% at the end of 2023. As a result, demand for retail space has remained strong and the market is starting to see in uptick in new developer-built retail locations coming online. W. P. Carey has completed several deals that align with this trend – for example, the acquisition of 22 recently built and to-be-completed car wash facilities across the U.S., leased to Tidal Wave Auto Spa, a prominent car wash operator. With interest rates projected to decrease in late 2024, the market will likely continue to see a ramp up in new development over the coming months. Retail vacancies at record lows Strong demand for retail space has resulted in record-low vacancy rates, with total retail vacancy reaching 4.2% at the end of 2023. Low vacancy rates are a positive sign for investors like W. P. Carey as it provides greater confidence in long-term leases and the ability to re-lease vacant buildings if the need arises. However, it also means more competition for less space which is pushing retail rents significantly higher. This makes it more expensive for retailers looking to expand and acquire new space, which in turn increases operational costs. Sale-leaseback activity picks up With rents rising significantly, retailers – particularly those looking to grow their real estate footprints – will be seeking new ways to access capital. This will likely contribute to greater demand for sale-leasebacks, where a retailer sells its real estate to an investor (like W. P. Carey) for cash and simultaneously enters into a long-term lease. This is a valuable business decision for most retail companies because owning real estate can serve as a drag on their balance sheet. By unlocking the value of their real estate through a sale-leaseback, retailers can reinvest proceeds into their core competencies, leading to better overall returns and long-term growth.