ICSC Las Vegas Preview
W. P. Carey’s Michael Fitzgerald outlines the biggest topics and trends impacting retail
ICSC Las Vegas, one of the largest commercial real estate gatherings, will again convene the industry’s leading professionals and retailers next week. Over 30,000 attendees will gather for networking, deal-making and insights into how the retail real estate industry will fare amid a volatile and uncertain economic environment. Tariffs, shifts in consumer sentiment and sale-leaseback opportunities will be among the biggest topics discussed at the conference. Outlined below is an overview of each.
Tariffs add pressure and uncertainty for retailers
Uncertainty surrounding tariffs is expected to have a substantial impact on the retail real estate industry. The National Retail Federation announced it expects the growth of U.S. retail sales to slow down this year due to consumer anxiety and inflation, with an outsized impact on smaller retailers and certain industries including textiles and electronics. While the long-term impact of tariff policies is unclear, retailers ultimately will have to determine how much of the additional costs they can absorb versus passing on to consumers. These decisions could have significant impacts on retailers’ balance sheets and ability to remain operational, affecting overall investment in the sector.
Consumer sentiment shifts will impact investor demand
Shifting consumer preferences continue to present both opportunities and challenges for retailers. Uncertainty surrounding the future of the economy has made consumers more budget conscious and focused on necessities. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, essential goods account for 65% of consumer spending. As a result, retailers will likely continue to show interest in grocery-anchored shopping centers, which continue to remain among the best-performing retail property types.
E-commerce also continues to redefine retail. As more consumers shift their spending online, retailers like Macy’s are consolidating locations and shrinking their footprints. For investors seeking stability, this means targeting markets with strong population and job growth—where retail assets are most likely to perform well over the long term.
Sale-leasebacks remain a viable financing option
Despite economic uncertainty, the retail sale-leaseback market continues to grow—thanks to its clear advantages over traditional debt. By unlocking the full market value of their real estate, retailers can reinvest proceeds into their core business and drive stronger returns. Sale-leasebacks also provide long-term capital with no refinancing risk and typically without the restrictive debt covenants or balloon payments that come with conventional financing. In today’s climate, where liquidity and balance sheet flexibility are paramount, that kind of stability is more valuable than ever.
Related Topics:
You May Also Like:
The Future of Net Lease Retail
Retail investors in 2025 face shifting market conditions, including tariff concerns, interest rate volatility, higher construction costs, and increased institutional competition. According to Michael Fitzgerald, executive director and head of US retail investments at W. P. Carey, these forces will continue to influence retail investments in the months ahead. “You have many factors pushing cap rates in different directions, with new entrants and fresh capital coming into the market,” says Fitzgerald. “That increased demand naturally drives rates down. But at the same time, rising 10-year interest rates and investors trying to protect their spread are pushing cap rates up. In the end, we’ve actually seen some stability since this time last year.” Still, in the current conditions, investors are reassessing how they evaluate risk, structure leases, and identify long-term value. Pressure Points Grow Rising construction and financing costs as well as the increasing cost of imported goods have become pressure points across the sector. According to Fitzgerald, those costs translate to higher rents, especially for new sale-leaseback deals. Even with those increases, Fitzgerald emphasizes that the need to ensure profitability still holds up at the store level. “We need to make sure the metrics still make sense,” he says. Additionally, inflation has made flat leases a tough sell for investors. “It’s fair to say the age of flat leases is over,” adds Fitzgerald. “Outside of grocery, there’s really not much appetite for retail leases with flat escalations.” Sale-leaseback Opportunities Remain Despite these headwinds, the retail sale-leaseback market has continued to see growth because the structure has basic advantages over other forms of financing. Sale-leasebacks offer long-term capital with no refinancing risk and typically without the restrictive debt covenants or balloon payments of traditional debt. As a result, companies that need capital and have a real estate footprint will continue to tap this form of financing despite overall higher cap rates. According to Fitzgerald, the best candidates for sale-leasebacks are growing retailers in healthy retail segments. This includes companies that provide discount non-discretionary products and services, convenience stores, service-based segments and fitness. How Disciplined Investors Move Forward When evaluating retail assets, Fitzgerald emphasizes the EBITDAR-to-rent ratio as a key metric. “It’s the single most important metric for understanding whether a retail location is a good long-term investment. Locations with a history of consistent profit will tend to stay open and can support a fair amount of rent.” Beyond that, Fitzgerald highlights that W. P. Carey also looks at the rent relative to market and the cost basis of the property relative to its construction cost or replacement cost. The corporate credit profile also plays a major role. Fitzgerald emphasizes he often looks for companies with strong credit, market leadership, conservative capitalization, solid management, a proven track record of success, and a conservative approach to growth. “W. P. Carey has a strong history of smart credit underwriting, and in some cases, our deep understanding of credit allows us to pursue investment ideas others will not.” Despite changing market conditions, Fitzgerald believes disciplined investors still have room to thrive. For instance, he points to W. P. Carey’s access to capital, as well as their overall balance sheet strength. “We are differentiated by our large balance sheet that allows us to make all-cash offers at large scale without any financing contingencies. This enables us to consistently offer certainty of close, which is often the most important factor sellers point to when choosing a sale-leaseback partner.”
Sale-leasebacks emerge as a solid choice for stable returns
In the more mature US net lease market, sale-leaseback deals are an increasingly common method for corporates to raise capital to reinvest in their core business. That approach remains relatively nascent in continental Europe, though it is beginning to catch on. Meanwhile, growing M&A activity promises to boost transaction volumes on both sides of the Atlantic, explain Christopher Mertlitz, Head of European Investments, and Tyler Swann, Managing Director, Investments, at net lease specialist W. P. Carey. Download W. P. Carey’s keynote interview from the PERE Net Lease Report to learn about the future of the net lease market, private equity's growing interest in sale-leasebacks and more!
The Ins and Outs of Build-to-Suits
What is a build-to-suit? A build-to-suit is a real estate solution where a company secures a custom-built facility without the upfront capital investment. In a build-to-suit, a developer or investor funds and manages the construction of a new facility or expansion of an existing one to meet the specifications of a prospective or existing tenant. Upon completion, the company enters into a long-term lease, similar to a sale-leaseback. For companies in need of a new, purpose-built facility, a build-to-suit is an efficient and capital-saving alternative to buying or retrofitting an existing building. What are the key benefits of a build-to-suit? Custom-built facility in the company’s preferred location No upfront capital required, enabling the company to preserve capital for business growth Operational control of the facility post construction Potential for future expansions, renovations or energy retrofits through an investor partnership Who should consider a build-to-suit? Build-to-suits are best suited for companies that: Have specialized layouts, equipment or other design requirements Prefer a new property instead of retrofitting an older building Want to preserve capital rather than tie up funds in real estate development Can commit to a long-term lease (typically 10-30 years) How does the build-to-suit process work? Companies can pursue a build-to-suit through three main approaches: Developer-led build-to-suit: Based on the building specifications, a tenant will hire a commercial developer. The developer will take on the responsibilities (and risk) of land acquisition and building construction. Often, they will work with an investor, like W. P. Carey, as a capital partner to either finance the construction or acquire the building upon completion. The tenant will then lease the property, typically on a long-term basis, from the owner. Reverse build-to-suit / sale-leaseback: In this scenario, the tenant takes on the initial responsibilities of land acquisition, financing and hiring a general contractor for construction. Upon completion, an investor like W. P. Carey acquires the building. This allows the tenant to recoup the acquisition cost and reinvest that capital into their business. Investor-led build-to-suit: With this option, a tenant can bypass the developer and work directly with an investor like W. P. Carey that offers in-house project management services. The investor would work hand-in-hand with the tenant on site selection, land acquisition, design and construction, delivering a building that meets the tenant’s unique needs with no upfront capital required. The investor would own the building and lease it to the tenant on a long-term basis upon completion. How long does a build-to-suit take? Build-to-suits can take anywhere from 12-36 months depending on the size, location, permitting and other specifications. Rent payments typically do not begin until the building is substantially complete and operational. The lease term of a build-to-suit property is also usually longer than those of a typical commercial lease, ranging anywhere from 10-30 years. Conclusion: Is a build-to-suit right for your business? While build-to-suits may seem intimidating for companies who have never pursued one, they are a great solution for custom-built real estate with little to no upfront capital involved. W. P. Carey has extensive experience working with tenants and developers to structure customized build-to-suit financing programs that meet their specific needs – whether it be traditional construction funding, financing upon completion or a full scope of in-house project management services. Considering a custom-built property for your company? Reach out to our team today!