Will the Net Lease Market Thrive in 2025?
Three key predictions shaping the U.S. net lease market in 2025 from W. P. Carey’s Head of Investments
The net lease industry has faced significant challenges in recent years, grappling with widespread economic uncertainty, soaring inflation and elevated interest rates leading to muted growth.
However, a turning point came in the second half of 2024, when the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates, ushering in lower cost debt and injecting some optimism into the market. While most industry experts believe net lease is poised for an upswing in 2025, the extent of the recovery remains in question.
As the industry gears up to “thrive in ‘25”, here are three predictions for the year ahead.
Transaction volume will likely increase, but uncertainty around interest rates will remain
After three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve last year, real estate investors have gained more confidence in the market, signaling the beginning of a turnaround for transaction volume. Colliers latest outlook forecasts a 25-33% growth in aggregate volume in 2025, driven by a strong economy, improving fundamentals and growing demand for key asset classes. The bid-ask spread between buyers and sellers will also continue to narrow in 2025, supporting more robust investment activity.
However, the predicted boost in transaction volume is largely tied to the future of interest rates which is uncertain. The timing and pace of further rate decisions will depend on many factors, including the impact of the incoming administration’s policies – mainly surrounding tariffs and immigration – on inflation.
Net lease investors will explore new property types as technology and innovation drive trends
Shifting economic factors and trends will also likely lead to a change in where net lease investors will look to allocate their capital. One of the fastest growing sectors over the past year has been data centers, which have seen a huge uptick in demand because of growing digital infrastructure needs and the advent of artificial intelligence. The average vacancy rate among primary North American data center markets in 2024 hit a record low of 2.8%, according to CBRE. The firm also forecasts the average preleasing rate for data centers to rise to 90% or more in 2025.
Another sector to watch is healthcare, with an aging population, growing healthcare spending and new technologies supporting increased investor demand. In particular, medical outpatient buildings are well-positioned to benefit from these trends, in addition to shifting consumer preferences for accessing healthcare in more convenient locations.
Industrial and retail will remain steady as positive tailwinds support demand
Despite new sectors potentially drawing investor interest, the net lease sector will remain underpinned by two of its core property types – industrial and retail.
Driven by e-commerce needs, warehouses and other industrial real estate properties are still in demand. In Q3 2024, industrial vacancy rates dipped slightly to 6.7%, according to Moody’s CRE. Furthermore, changes in trade policy will likely boost demand for industrial facilities near the U.S.-Mexico border – bolstering markets such as San Antonio, Austin and Dallas/Fort Worth.
Retail enters the new year with the lowest vacancy rate of any commercial real estate sector and will remain steady throughout 2025. Demand for retail continues to be primarily driven by location – with assets in densely populated areas garnering the most investor interest. Increased consumer spending as a result of easing inflation will also be a positive tailwind for retail growth in 2025.
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Looking into the Crystal Ball
2023 was undoubtedly a challenging year for the net lease sector. High inflation, rising interest rates and other economic uncertainty caused a notable decrease in overall transaction volume, sparking apprehension about the trajectory of the industry. However, there have been some signs of renewed life in the market. Most experts believe we have hit the interest rate peak and expect cuts to be made in 2024. In addition, dealmakers generally anticipate that the M&A environment will improve given the market has stabilized, which could bring more investment opportunities to the market. While no one has a perfect crystal ball about what the future will hold, there are certainly reasons for optimism in 2024. Here are three net lease market predictions for the year ahead. Boost in net lease deal volume fueled by projected interest rate cuts The U.S. Federal Reserve indicated in its latest summary of economic projections that three cuts may be coming in the year ahead. The cuts are expected to be slow and gradual and will be dependent on the state of the economy, but investors reliant on third-party debt are hoping for a much-needed reduction in borrowing costs to remain competitive. The signaling of rate cuts is positive news for the market as it means interest rates have most likely reached their peak. This should help the market stabilize therefore narrowing the bid-ask spread between buyers and sellers, leading to a more active deal environment in 2024. In addition, many investors who have stood on the sidelines in anticipation that there will be more favorable opportunities down the road are likely to start jumping back into the market in 2024 and new entrants are expected to join in. Uptick in private equity sale-leasebacks as M&A surges The dealmaking environment in 2024 is already off to a better start than 2023. Inflation has declined, interest rates have likely reached their peak and private credit has become more widely available for more kinds of deals, while traditional credit markets are starting to improve. Private equity firms are also sitting on an unprecedented amount of dry powder – $2.59 trillion – with mounting pressures to deploy that capital into new investments. As a result, M&A activity is expected to increase in 2024. Along with an uptick in dealmaking, savvy private equity firms are expected to continue looking for alternative strategies for growth given lingering economic and geopolitical uncertainties. One effective strategy is through the sale-leaseback of their portfolio company real estate, which allows private equity firms to unlock immediate capital to redeploy into other initiatives, such as new acquisitions or portfolio company growth. Typically, when M&A activity surges, sale-leaseback opportunities follow, so more private equity-backed real estate deals will likely emerge in 2024. Pandemic office trends remain while industrial holds steady More than three years since the start of the pandemic, the real estate industry has finally accepted that the office sector will not return to the way it was before – and hybrid- and- remote work models are here to stay. As a result, offices have lost much of their appeal for investors, with transactions declining more than twice as much as any other property sector in 2023. W. P. Carey announced its strategic plan to exit office last year, through the spin-off of 59 office properties into Net Lease Office Properties and an office sale program to dispose of the remaining on-balance sheet assets. This trend is expected to continue into 2024 and some office investors will likely start to look for alternative uses for office assets – such as residential or industrial. Industrial, on the other hand, will continue to perform well into 2024, as re-shoring and nearshoring provide a boost to the sector. While the asset class is showing some signs of softening post-pandemic as the need for robust inventory decreases, the long-term outlook remains positive. Moody’s Analytics CRE forecasts that annual rent growth for warehouse and distribution properties will track at approximately 5-6% per year over the next 10 years, suggesting that the sector has moved on from its huge boom into a steadier state of growth.
Where Will Net Lease Go in 2024?
In 2023, higher debt costs, a looming $2 trillion-plus wave of corporate debt coming due and other economic uncertainty have clouded the CRE outlook. And while the net lease sector, with its low risk and steady income, has weathered recent economic headwinds better than most, it’s not immune. Execution uncertainty was a central theme in 2023, reports Zachary Pasanen, managing director, investments at W. P. Carey. “With the ramp-up in interest rates, buyers and sellers have struggled to meet at a price that made sense,” he says, noting that a lot of deals after the first quarter had repricing challenges or re-trade concerns. In a competitive market, those who rely on debt financing have been constrained by higher rates. Investors, however, are still seeing cap rate expansion within certain sectors. Shifting Rates & Fundamentals With deals more difficult to come by, investors have re-focused on fundamentals. Pasanen notes that, with industrial, this has meant a refocus on rent growth and the assets “criticality.” There remains good demand for industrial assets, but investors should realize the changing fundamentals of the sector: it is no longer the “darling” product, attracting unlimited cheap capital in pursuit of properties requiring lower capex. Pasanen uses the word “retrenchment” for the asset class as people are getting smarter with rent growth projections following their internal modeling. “With the sector still offering a lot of attractive elements, there is no desire to move out of the sector,” he says. “Unlike office, we view industrial, particularly manufacturing, as profit centers: it’s where the widgets are made. We focus on good, underlying fundamentals but also where there’s criticality in the real estate.” The sudden shift in rates has caused a break in investor expectations, Pasanen says, with one-off, syndicators or family offices still pursuing at compressed numbers. Meanwhile, institutional investors are focusing on tenant credits and cap rates at 8% and higher. Outlook Pasanen notes there’s opportunity in sale-leasebacks for companies looking to raise capital. He says W. P. Carey has a successful history here, taking the time to understand a business to ensure they will be a good investment for the long haul. “No one has a perfect crystal ball, but we try our best and we've got a long history of underwriting credits that are sub-investment grade in nature, and we have a good track record in doing so.” Market expectations are leaning toward interest rate cuts in 2024, an outlook reaffirmed by the Fed’s latest announcement on December 13. Smart investors, however, should prepare for all situations and also have contingency plans for a long pause or even a rate hike if inflation kicks up again. With inflation and increasing interest rates making borrowing more expensive, will CFOs and fund managers continue to strategize on how to recalibrate their business and find that new normal? “I think it will actually be a big year in 2024,” he says. “The rise in interest rates happened quickly so if we have a long pause [on rate movement] the deal environment should become more normalized. When the behavioral element settles in we’ll see more normal investment activity.”
Net Lease Investors Eye Cross-Border Opportunities and New Property Types in 2025
The net lease market is positioned for change in 2025, with investors monitoring trends in geographic expansion and property types, as well as shifting economic factors. While the US remains a key market for many, international opportunities are gaining ground, particularly in Mexico, as noted by Tyler Swann, managing director of investments at W. P. Carey. “Mexico is a market we’ll be watching closely next year,” says Swann. “We’re seeing more sale-leaseback and build-to-suit opportunities there, particularly as more American and International manufacturers set up shop in the country.” Alongside these international prospects, investors are exploring new property types and preparing for economic factors like ongoing interest rate volatility and tariffs. By keeping an eye on these trends, investors can better position themselves for what’s next, says Swann. Geographic Expansion and Emerging Property Types While the US and Europe remain the cornerstone of net lease investment for W. P. Carey, Swann is monitoring other international markets, such as Mexico and Canada, for growth. “Our largest transaction in 2023 was in Canada,” he says. The country’s interest rates differ from those in the US, and Swann is keeping a close watch on how this impacts market pricing with an eye to expanding further if the opportunity exists. New opportunities in 2025 aren’t limited to geography, Swann notes. Some non-traditional property types are also getting a look from the net lease world. “We’re seeing more activity from net lease investors in the data center world,” says Swann. “Clearly, there’s a need for a tremendous amount of capital to fund the buildout of these new data centers.” However, he adds that W. P. Carey takes a selective approach, focusing on long-term leases to single tenants to ensure returns comparable to the company’s core industrial investments. Healthcare properties, particularly those in prime locations, are also attracting attention. “To the extent that we can find those well-located healthcare assets, I think that‘s something we’ll explore in 2025,” says Swann. Swann sees the key criteria for healthcare investments to be their proximity to population centers with favorable demographic trends and the asset’s importance to the local community. Continued Interest Rate Volatility and an Unpredictable Market As the net lease market heads into 2025, interest rate volatility remains a key concern for investors. Recent fluctuations in long-term Treasury rates have had a direct impact on asset pricing and overall investment strategies. “Long-term financing rates are also critical for how we price assets with long-term leases,” says Swann. “The uncertainty surrounding interest rates is compounded by economic factors, including potential deficit spending and the risks of future inflation.” Looking ahead, investors will need to remain flexible, evaluating opportunities, property types, and the broader economic trends to stay ahead of market shifts. “Interest rate volatility can actually benefit public REITs like W. P. Carey,” Swann notes. “We’re less sensitive to rate movements, which allows us to close deals even in volatile environments.”