Corporate Finance
From Volatility to Resilience: Net Lease Real Estate in 2025
2025 marked a turning point for the net lease real estate market, driven by three defining trends: interest rate relief, cap rate stabilization and an increased focus on mission-critical assets. Together, these forces shaped real estate investor strategies and helped restore confidence in the market. Here’s an overview of each: Interest Rate Relief Sparked Market Activity The Federal Reserve’s late-2024 rate cuts reignited momentum across the market. Lower borrowing costs helped narrow the bid-ask spread, unlocking deal flow that had stalled during the Fed’s tightening cycle. Transaction volumes rebounded as investors who had been sidelined re-entered the market, eager to capitalize on improved financing conditions. For the year ending in Q3 2025, net lease investment volume increased by 24% to $48.1 billion from the same period a year ago. This shift underscored how quickly sentiment can turn when capital becomes more accessible. Cap Rates Found Their Balance After two years of steady increases, cap rates showed signs of stabilization, with Q2 and Q3 data indicating only marginal movements. This plateau suggests the market is entering a more predictable phase – due to factors such as declining Treasury yields, steady inventory and consistent demand – and creates opportunities for disciplined investors to lock in attractive yields. High-credit tenants continued to command premium pricing, underscoring the importance of credit quality in underwriting decisions. Mission-Critical Assets Took Center Stage Another notable trend in 2025 was the surge in demand for mission-critical properties. While these assets have long been foundational to the net lease market, investor interest increased as buyers prioritized operationally essential facilities with high tenant stickiness and limited relocation risk. As a result, investors gravitated toward property types such as specialized manufacturing, data centers and healthcare facilities. These types of mission-critical properties typically offer long-term stability and predictable cash flows given the tenant is likely to operate out of them for the long term, making them attractive in a volatile environment. Looking Ahead 2025 represented a much needed rebound for the net lease market. Interest rate cuts and cap rate stabilization restored confidence, reignited deal flow and brought investors back into play. While macroeconomic headwinds haven’t disappeared, the sector enters 2026 on solid footing and poised for continued growth.
Turning Real Estate into Opportunity: How Sale-leasebacks Fuel Business Growth
In today’s ever-changing macroeconomic landscape, companies are rethinking how they fund growth, maintain liquidity and improve balance sheet strength. One strategy that savvy companies are using is the sale-leaseback – a transaction where a business sells its real estate to an investor for cash and then leases it back on a long-term basis. This allows companies to convert an illiquid asset into working capital while maintaining operational control of their property. Below are three strategic ways businesses are using sale-leaseback proceeds to fuel growth. 1. Recapitalization and Paying Down Debt Many organizations use sale-leaseback capital to strengthen their financial foundation. By monetizing owned real estate, a company can retire or restructure high-interest debt, improve leverage ratios and enhance liquidity. This can result in better credit metrics and greater flexibility when seeking additional financing or investment. For private equity-backed firms, recapitalization through a sale-leaseback can also help unlock trapped equity without diluting ownership or taking on new debt. 2. Investing in Equipment, Automation and Sustainability Freeing up capital from real estate can enable major investments in operational improvements. Companies are using sale-leaseback proceeds to modernize production lines, invest in robotics and automation and upgrade facilities to meet sustainability goals. This might include installing solar panels, LED lighting or EV charging infrastructure – all upgrades that improve efficiency and help save on energy costs. These investments can increase profitability over time, create competitive advantages and satisfy corporate stakeholders focused on sustainability. 3. Funding Strategic Acquisitions and M&A Capital from a sale-leaseback can also serve as a catalyst for expansion. Businesses pursuing mergers, acquisitions or strategic partnerships often need significant capital quickly. Sale-leaseback transactions can help fund buyouts, target company integration or geographic expansion – without the delays or covenants associated with traditional debt financing. Because sale-leaseback proceeds are based on the value of owned property, companies can generate substantial, non-dilutive capital that supports growth. Conclusion A well-structured sale-leaseback can serve as a dynamic financial tool – offering immediate liquidity without the restrictions of other forms of traditional financing. For companies looking to recapitalize, innovate or grow through new acquisitions, this strategy offers a proven path to access capital efficiently in all market environments. Interested in pursuing a sale-leaseback? Contact W. P. Carey today!
Is a Sale-leaseback Right for Your Business?
Economic uncertainty and restricted debt markets are leading more corporate occupiers to explore alternative financing options such as sale-leasebacks to secure funds. In a sale-leaseback, a company sells its real estate to an investor for cash and simultaneously enters into a long-term lease thereby unlocking otherwise illiquid capital to redeploy into higher growth segments of its core business. A sale-leaseback is an innovative tool that can be especially advantageous in today’s market where debt financing may be less attractive but is your company and your real estate the right fit? Read on to determine if (and when) a sale-leaseback is right for your business. The Criteria for a Sale-leaseback Own your real estate The key criterion for a sale-leaseback is real estate ownership. One of the primary drivers for a company to undertake a sale-leaseback is to unlock 100% of the real estate’s value while maintaining long-term operational control of the asset. By selling your property and leasing it back, you remove a non-incoming producing, fixed asset (real estate) and unlock liquid capital to reinvest into your business. Own the right type of real estate While the mainstream commercial property sectors of industrial, retail and office are most common in a sale-leaseback transaction, other specialty assets like life sciences and data centers have expanded the pool of investable assets. Make sure it's critical to your operations Investors look for specific value-add characteristics before buying a property. For instance, it’s best if your asset is mission-critical—in other words, an essential revenue driver for your business. Potential investors will also likely consider the property’s condition and age (high-quality, modern assets with sustainable features will be more valuable), location (think proximity to transportation routes) and size. Desired size will depend on the investor and often vary by property type. Retail properties for example tend to be smaller (perhaps around 20,000 square feet), compared to an industrial asset that might be upwards of 250,000 square feet. Additional space to expand the facility is also a plus for investors. However, the criticality of the asset to your operations is often more important than the asset type or size itself. Have a strong underlying credit story (sub-IG credits welcome!) You’ll attract real estate investors if you have a strong underlying credit and revenue history. Due to the long length of leases typically associated with sale-leasebacks, the investor will want to be confident that you can consistently pay rent throughout the lease term. However, this doesn’t mean your company must be investment grade. Many investors can work with sellers that are sub-investment grade so long as the underlying fundamentals of the business are solid. Institutional investors with strong underwriting capabilities will be able to evaluate all credits and assess your financial statements in order to get comfortable with pursuing a sale-leaseback deal. Be willing to sign a long-term lease, but ask the right questions upfront The last criterion for a sale-leaseback is that you must be willing to sign a long-term lease with the investor, typically 10-30 years. Before signing a long-term lease, it’s important to consider some critical factors, including: Space requirements: Evaluate your current and future space requirements to ensure the leased property will accommodate your needs for the duration of the lease. If additional space is needed, it’s possible your sale-leaseback partner will work with you on an expansion or build-to-suit of a brand-new asset. Renewal options: Does the lease come with renewal options? Find out the renewal terms for which the lessor is willing to extend the lease period so that you can continue occupying the property once the initial period for the lease expires. Maintenance and repairs: Know who's responsible for any maintenance and repair needs of the leased commercial property. In a triple-net lease, for instance, the tenant is responsible for all insurance, taxes and maintenance expenses, which also means the tenant maintains full operational control. By considering all the above factors, you can make an informed decision and confidently enter into a long-term lease. When to Consider a Sale-leaseback? While sale-leaseback financing is an excellent alternative to loans and other debt financing, it's not ideal for every company in every circumstance. Here are a few examples of when it makes sense to consider a sale-leaseback for your business. When you need capital for growth Sale-leasebacks are an excellent tool to unlock cash for growth initiatives, particularly for companies with limited access to traditional forms of financing. Proceeds from sale-leasebacks can be channeled to investments in new equipment, technology, personnel or additional facilities. And the best part is that a sale-leaseback enables you to raise capital without losing control of your property. To support M&A If you're considering an M&A transaction, you may need to raise additional capital to fund the purchase of the target company—or to pay down debt following an acquisition—which may be the case for companies and private equity firms alike. Usually, the cost of capital for commercial real estate investors is quite competitive as a real estate investor will acquire your property at market rate, creating an immediate arbitrage between the real estate multiple and the acquired business EBITDA multiple. To strengthen your balance sheet A sale-leaseback can help strengthen your business’ balance sheet by shoring up much-needed cash. You can use the raised capital to pay off existing debt, boost your debt-to-equity ratio or invest in other revenue-driving areas of your business. Remember the composition of your business’ balance sheet determines how lenders, investors and shareholders view your company's risk profile. If you have less debt, your business will be more attractive to these parties. Final thoughts A sale-leaseback transaction is an excellent alternative for companies, especially during periods when traditional sources of financing are limited. When choosing a sale-leaseback partner, consider an experienced, long-term investor who can buy on an all-equity basis and who is willing to work with you throughout your lease (and beyond). W. P. Carey has been a leader in sale-leasebacks since 1973 and is well-positioned to continue helping companies unlock capital even in today’s challenging economic environment. Maximize your real estate and unlock immediate capital by contacting our team today!
Corporate Capital Report - H1 2025
Written by Colliers Corporate Capital Solutions, the report outlines the biggest factors that impacted the corporate real estate market in H1 2025, including improving debt markets, a renewed focus on corporate agility and the accelerating impact of technological innovation. The report also features contributed content from Christopher Mertlitz, Head of European Investments at W. P. Carey, on sale-leasebacks playing a pivotal role in Europe’s real estate resurgence. Access the full report below.
The Ins and Outs of Sale-leasebacks
What Is a Sale-Leaseback? In a sale-leaseback (or sale and leaseback), a company sells its commercial real estate to an investor for cash and simultaneously enters into a long-term lease with the new property owner. In doing so, the company extracts 100% of the property's value and converts an otherwise illiquid asset into working capital, while maintaining full operational control of the facility. This is a great capital tool for companies not in the business of owning real estate, as their real estate assets represent a significant cash value that could be redeployed into higher-earning segments of their business to support growth. What Are the Benefits? Sale-leasebacks are an attractive capital raising tool for many companies and offer an alternative to traditional bank financing. Whether a company is looking to invest in R&D, expand into a new market, fund an M&A transaction, or simply de-lever, sale-leasebacks serve as a strategic capital allocation tool to fund both internal and external growth in all market conditions. Key Benefits Include: Immediate access to capital to reinvest in core business operations and growth initiatives with higher equity returns. 100% market value realization of otherwise illiquid assets compared to debt alternatives. Alternative capital source when conventional financing is unavailable or limited. Ability to retain operational control of real estate with no disruption to day-to-day operations. Potential to gain a long-term partner with the capital to fund future expansions, building renovations, energy retrofits and more. Who Qualifies for a Sale-Leaseback? There are several factors that determine whether a sale-leaseback is the right fit for a company. To be eligible, companies must meet the following criteria: Own Their Real Estate The first and most obvious criterion for qualification is that the company owns its real estate or have an option to purchase any existing leased space. Manufacturing facilities, corporate headquarters, retail locations, and other forms of real estate can be potential candidates for a sale-leaseback. Unlocking the value of these locations and redeploying that capital into higher yielding parts of the business is a key driver for companies pursuing sale-leasebacks. Be Willing to Commit to Operating in the Space While the term of the lease in a sale-leaseback can vary, most investors will want a commitment from a future tenant to occupy the space for a 10+ year term. Assets critical to a company’s operations are often good candidates for a sale-leaseback because a company is willing to sign a long-term lease for those locations. This makes it a more attractive investment for sale-leaseback investors as they have more security that the tenant will stay in the facility for the long term. Have a Strong Credit Profile Companies do not need to be investment-grade quality to pursue a sale-leaseback. However, some credit history is typically required so the sale-leaseback investor knows that the business can make rental payments over the course of the lease. Sub-investment-grade businesses are still eligible as long as they have a strong track record of revenue and cashflow from which to judge their creditworthiness; however, they may need to find an investor who has the underwriting capabilities to assess their business. Minimum revenue and profitability requirements will vary based firm to firm, so it’s best to ask about this upfront before engaging with any particular sale-leaseback partner. Qualities to Look for in a Sale-leaseback Investor When considering a sale-leaseback, finding the right buyer is critical in order to ensure a company is maximizing the value of their real estate. Here are some of the key qualities to look for in a sale-leaseback investor. Experience A knowledgeable investor can offer more flexibility and guide sellers through the process, creating customized deal structures to meet all of a company’s unique objectives and avoid potential pitfalls. Additionally, experienced investors can typically navigate all market cycles and offer certainty of close (some in as little as 30 days), ensuring the deal closes in a timeframe that works for the company and their fiscal requirements. An All-Equity Buyer When looking for a sale-leaseback partner, finding an all-equity buyer is important, particularly when dealing with timing constraints. All-equity buyers don't have to worry about third-party debt or financing contingencies, meaning there’s less likelihood of a re-trade in the late stages of negotiation. All-equity buyers can also typically close faster as they do not need to wait on approval from banks or lenders, providing a smoother process overall. A Long-Term Real Estate Holder Finding a long-term investor is vital. Sellers don’t want someone who is simply looking to flip a property for a quick profit. Instead, look for an investor who will remain a committed partner to you over the long run and one that can provide capital for future projects such as expansions, renovations, or energy retrofits. Diverse Knowledge and Experience Different industries, property types and locations require unique expertise to efficiently and effectively partner with sellers to structure a deal that address the needs of all parties. Working with an investor with experience in the company’s specific industry, property type and/or country ensures that all potential risks and opportunities are considered before entering into a sale-leaseback agreement. For example, if you are considering a cross-border, multi-country transaction it’s critical you look for an investor with local teams in those countries who speak the language and understand the local rules. What is a Build-to-Suit? When looking into a sale-leaseback, another term companies may encounter is a build-to-suit. In a build-to-suit, a company funds and manages the construction of a new facility or expansion of an existing one to meet the specifications of a prospective or existing tenant. Upon completion, the company enters into a long-term lease, similar to a sale-leaseback. For companies looking for a brand-new property, this is a great solution that requires no upfront capital. The Main Benefits of Build-to-Suits Include: Development of a custom-built facility in a location of the company’s choice. No upfront capital required, enabling the company to preserve capital for its business. Ability to retain operational control of the facility post construction. Potential to gain a long-term partner with the capital to fund future expansions, building renovations, energy retrofits and more. Conclusion While sale-leasebacks may seem intimidating for companies who have never pursued one, working with an experienced and well-capitalized investor can make the process easy. When working with an investor like W. P. Carey, sellers can ensure they are working with a partner that can understand the unique requirements of their business while having the added option of closing in as little as 30 days and the added advantage of gaining a long-term partner who can support its tenants through flexibility and additional capital should they wish to pursue follow-on projects such as expansions or energy retrofits as their business and real estate needs evolve. In all market conditions, sale-leasebacks are a great financing tool to unlock otherwise illiquid capital that can be reinvested into a company’s business to support future growth. Think a sale-leaseback is right for your company? Contact our team today!
Lease Accounting Made Clear: IFRS vs. US GAAP for Sellers Considering a Sale-leaseback
Lease accounting has never been simple, but the arrival of ASC 842 in the US and IFRS 16 internationally has made it even more challenging. Both standards bring leases onto the balance sheet, yet they take very different approaches. If you only report under one standard, the rules are relatively straightforward. But for many European and multinational companies that report under both, the differences can create extra complexity. And for companies consider a sale-leaseback this matters – because you’re moving from being an owner (with property recorded as PP&E) to a lessee (with right-of-use assets and lease liabilities). Here’s a look at how IFRS and US GAAP diverge, and what that means in practice. One set of rules vs. two IFRS 16 uses one set of rules for all leases – they’re recorded on the balance sheet as a right-of-use asset and a lease liability, and expenses ares split between interest and amortization. Under US GAAP (ASC 842), all leases also go on the balance sheet the same way, but the difference shows up on the income statement. Finance leases follow the IFRS approach (interest and amortization), while operating leases are recorded as a single, straight-line rent expense. Importantly, classification under US GAAP depends on the terms of the lease contract (e.g. does ownership transfer, does the lessee have a bargain purchase option, does the term cover most of the asset’s usable life, and does the present value of the lease payments equal or exceed substantially all of the fair value of the asset). How changing lease payments are handled Another key difference is how variable lease payments are treated. Under IFRS, if lease payments go up or down because they are tied to something like inflation (i.e. CPI), the lease liability on the balance sheet (essentially what a company still owes for future lease payments) is updated to reflect that change. Under US GAAP, however, the balance sheet stays the same and the changes flow through to the income statement as expenses as they occur. Short-term exceptions Both frameworks make an exception for very short-term leases (under 12 months), allowing them off the balance sheet. Why It Matters These differences affect how your financials look, how ratios move and how investors view your business. For companies that have to report under both standards, it’s especially important to understand the nuances. For companies doing a sale-leaseback, the accounting may differ, but the underlying economics don’t. What changes is how the results are presented. That’s why it’s important to work with an experienced, international partner like W. P. Carey who can understand your goals and help you navigate both frameworks Want to dive deeper? Check out our full breakdown of IFRS vs. US GAAP lease accounting. This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered accounting advice. Please consult your own advisor regarding your specific situation.
Commercial Lease Types Explained: Find the Best Lease for Your Business
People who are relatively new to leasing commercial real estate often mistakenly think it is similar to a residential lease on a house or apartment. In fact, commercial leases are quite different and often much more complicated. There are different commercial real estate lease types, each of which suits the needs of different businesses and landlords. It's vital to understand what kind of lease you are being offered for your commercial property so you can ensure it’s the right lease for your business. Here are the various lease types and how they work. Gross Lease A gross lease is one where you pay a flat rental fee that includes everything. This means taxes, insurance, utilities and maintenance costs are all included in the lease. You might compare this with the rare residential lease that includes utilities and possibly cable. Gross leases work well if you are renting office space or retail space in a mall. The lease is calculated to include your share of all of the common operating costs of the space. In other words, your rent will include a prorated share of real estate tax, utilities, building insurance and janitorial costs. This allows landlords to avoid having to meter individual spaces. Gross leases are typically calculated by analysis or past data, but you can often negotiate specific terms of the lease. For example, the standard lease on an office building might include your share of janitorial services in common areas and other common area maintenance, but it can be to your benefit to negotiate a lease that also includes janitorial services inside the office. This saves money because you are paying for extra time from a company that is already coming in vs. hiring a new company altogether. Modified Gross Lease This is a lease where you might have negotiated not to pay for certain things, such as electric utility. This is also very common for commercial spaces with multiple tenants. Full-Service Lease This is a lease where you only have to worry about your rent. Everything else is handled by the landlord. This is often a lot more expensive than other lease types, but it can be easier to budget as you don't have to worry about, for example, seasonal increases in utility bills. It is also called a service gross lease. Choosing a gross lease may seem like the simpler option, but you will pay a bigger rent check every month compared to other lease types. You also need to trust that the landlord will keep up their end of the bargain and ensure that everything is paid for, and maintenance gets done when needed. Net Lease A net lease, on the other hand, is one which works from the base assumption that the tenant will be taking on responsibility for some or all of the costs of running and maintaining the building. This is more common with single-tenant buildings such as warehouses or restaurants, although can be executed in multi-tenant buildings as well. A pure net lease makes you responsible for all the costs related to a property. The rent is thus lower, and although you are responsible for other costs you can typically keep operating costs down by exploring sustainable retrofit projects like a solar panel installation if your facility does not already have. One advantage beyond the benefit of a lower base rent of a net lease is that you often have more control over the property and thereby maintain a sense of ownership. You can, for example, freely choose your own utility providers and maintenance workers instead of being stuck with the landlord's preferred vendor. While your operating costs may be less predictable compared to a gross lease, net leases tend to be long-term in nature so the uncertainty of operating costs is offset by the predictability in rental fees. Here are the three major types of net leases: Single-Net Lease: In a single-net lease, the tenant pays property tax and other taxes and rent while the landlord covers everything else. Also called an N lease. Double-Net Lease: In a double-net lease, the tenant pays taxes, rent and property insurance while the landlord covers everything else. Also called an NN lease. Triple-Net Lease: In a triple-net lease, the tenant pays all costs related to property management including taxes, rent, property insurance, maintenance and other costs. Also called an NNN lease. This is the most common type of net lease. Percentage Lease A percentage lease is a lease where instead of paying a fixed rent, you pay your landlord a percentage of your sales. This includes a certain amount of base rent, and also a negotiated break-even point, which might be a fixed amount or the base rent divided by the agreed percentage. Percentage leases can sometimes be beneficial to both parties for retail space, especially in a mall or shopping center. The terms can be net or gross, with the amount of the base rent set according to what the landlord is responsible for in terms of operating costs. Operating versus Capital Lease Most commercial real estate leases are operating leases, meaning you do not get ownership of the property after the lease is done. In many cases you will be able to renew and renegotiate the lease. With a capital lease, the property is treated as a purchase for accounting purposes, and you may gain ownership at the end of the lease. Capital leases have fairly strict requirements and are relatively rare in commercial real estate. They are similar to finance leases, where you automatically gain ownership at the end of the lease term. Ground Lease A ground lease is when you own the building, but another party owns the land it is located on. Ground leases tend to be very long, averaging 50 to 99 years (compared to the 10 to 30 year lease term of net leases and the typically even shorter gross leases). While ground leases can offer you full control over the building, with some limitations, you are adding another stakeholder with other interests and opinions. It can also be harder to get out of a ground lease if you need to relocate your business. So, what is the best type of commercial lease agreement? The answer is that it depends on your business and the kind of space you are leasing. W. P. Carey is a long-term owner of real estate focused on triple-net leases. We primarily own single-tenant industrial properties that tend to be critical to business operations and therefore unlikely to be vacated for many years. This type of lease makes the most sense for these businesses as it gives the tenant full operational control over the property and is most similar to ownership. The added benefit of selling to W. P. Carey is that we are a long-term holder of real estate and do not look to flip our assets. We have a vested interest in maintaining the quality of our portfolio and pride ourselves in serving as a partner to our tenants should you have additional real estate or capital needs past the point of initial sale. That said, with over 50 years of experience providing customized solutions to our sellers, W. P. Carey can work with you on a lease type that is best for you and your business. Want to learn more? Contact & start the conversation with W. P. Carey today!
Five Benefits of Sale-leasebacks Over Traditional Debt Financing
In today’s environment, having access to capital is crucial in order to maintain ongoing operations and invest in growth. However, traditional debt financing is becoming less attractive for companies in light of refinancing risks and the potential for balloon payments. As a result, some CFOs are investigating alternative sources of capital. For companies that own real estate, one method worth exploring is the sale-leaseback – where a company sells its real estate to an investor for cash and simultaneously enters into a long-term lease. For companies considering a sale-leaseback, here are five key benefits of this alternative capital solution: 1. Convert an illiquid asset into working capital The primary benefit of a sale-leaseback is the ability to immediately convert an illiquid asset into liquid capital to meet both short- and long-term needs, such as paying off debt, purchasing new equipment or investing in growth initiatives. From an accounting perspective, sale-leasebacks can also help boost a company’s balance sheet by putting them in a better cash position and improving their debt-to-equity ratio, enabling them to secure more attractive debt financing in the future should they need it. 2. Unlock 100% of the property's value Sale-leasebacks enable companies to extract 100% fair market value for their real estate, compared to about 80% or less for a mortgage loan. With real estate valuations on the rise, sale-leasebacks will likely yield more cash than traditional financing, enabling corporate sellers to maximize proceeds and invest more capital back into their business. 3. Benefit from long-term financing With traditional debt, companies typically have to refinance after three, five or ten years which can create interest rate and risk exposure to future economic downturns. Through sale-leasebacks, sellers sign a long-term lease – often 20 to 30 years – and lock in an attractive long-term rental rate that creates security and predictability for a company. The ability to lock in an attractive long-term rental rate today is especially advantageous in a volatile interest rate environment. 4. Maintain operational control and flexibility Compared to other types of financing, sale-leasebacks offer sellers more control over the structure and terms of the deal. Sale-leaseback financing typically does not include restrictive debt covenants or balloon payments and can include flexibility for future growth, such as capital for an expansion. When structured as a triple-net lease, the seller maintains full operational control of the property, avoiding disruption to the day-to-day operation of the business. 5. Gain a long-term capital partner One of the most overlooked benefits of a sale-leaseback is the potential to gain a long-term partner with the capital to support future real estate needs including, expansions, build-to-suits of new commercial properties, renovations, green energy installations and more. Long-term real estate investors like W. P. Carey are committed to owning the property for the duration of the lease and beyond, and are willing to invest capital into the building well after the lease is signed to ensure the property is meeting the tenant’s long-term needs.
Will the Net Lease Market Thrive in 2025?
The net lease industry has faced significant challenges in recent years, grappling with widespread economic uncertainty, soaring inflation and elevated interest rates leading to muted growth. However, a turning point came in the second half of 2024, when the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates, ushering in lower cost debt and injecting some optimism into the market. While most industry experts believe net lease is poised for an upswing in 2025, the extent of the recovery remains in question. As the industry gears up to “thrive in ‘25”, here are three predictions for the year ahead. Transaction volume will likely increase, but uncertainty around interest rates will remain After three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve last year, real estate investors have gained more confidence in the market, signaling the beginning of a turnaround for transaction volume. Colliers latest outlook forecasts a 25-33% growth in aggregate volume in 2025, driven by a strong economy, improving fundamentals and growing demand for key asset classes. The bid-ask spread between buyers and sellers will also continue to narrow in 2025, supporting more robust investment activity. However, the predicted boost in transaction volume is largely tied to the future of interest rates which is uncertain. The timing and pace of further rate decisions will depend on many factors, including the impact of the incoming administration’s policies – mainly surrounding tariffs and immigration – on inflation. Net lease investors will explore new property types as technology and innovation drive trends Shifting economic factors and trends will also likely lead to a change in where net lease investors will look to allocate their capital. One of the fastest growing sectors over the past year has been data centers, which have seen a huge uptick in demand because of growing digital infrastructure needs and the advent of artificial intelligence. The average vacancy rate among primary North American data center markets in 2024 hit a record low of 2.8%, according to CBRE. The firm also forecasts the average preleasing rate for data centers to rise to 90% or more in 2025. Another sector to watch is healthcare, with an aging population, growing healthcare spending and new technologies supporting increased investor demand. In particular, medical outpatient buildings are well-positioned to benefit from these trends, in addition to shifting consumer preferences for accessing healthcare in more convenient locations. Industrial and retail will remain steady as positive tailwinds support demand Despite new sectors potentially drawing investor interest, the net lease sector will remain underpinned by two of its core property types – industrial and retail. Driven by e-commerce needs, warehouses and other industrial real estate properties are still in demand. In Q3 2024, industrial vacancy rates dipped slightly to 6.7%, according to Moody’s CRE. Furthermore, changes in trade policy will likely boost demand for industrial facilities near the U.S.-Mexico border – bolstering markets such as San Antonio, Austin and Dallas/Fort Worth. Retail enters the new year with the lowest vacancy rate of any commercial real estate sector and will remain steady throughout 2025. Demand for retail continues to be primarily driven by location – with assets in densely populated areas garnering the most investor interest. Increased consumer spending as a result of easing inflation will also be a positive tailwind for retail growth in 2025.