MIPIM 2025: Is the European Real Estate Market on the Rise?
Head of European Investments Christopher Mertlitz provides his insights ahead of next week’s conference
The annual real estate gathering in Cannes, MIPIM 2025, is set to kick off next week. As in previous years, more than 20,000 delegates will gather to discuss both the opportunities and challenges facing the European real estate industry. While concerns about the market remain—including geopolitical tensions, inflation and future monetary policy decisions—investors have entered the year with a sense of cautious optimism. As real estate professionals gear up for an insightful conference, here are the key questions they will be looking to address.
Will the European deal environment improve in 2025?
2024 was a year of transition for the real estate industry, with inflation gradually aligning with target levels and interest rates reaching their peak. In the latter half of the year, central banks began to lower interest rates, albeit slower—and in smaller increments—than some expected.
Despite analysts projecting only modest European economic growth in 2025, the real estate investment market stands poised for a gradual recovery. Market participants have largely come to the realization that rates will remain higher for longer, bringing some stability to transaction markets. This has further narrowed the bid-ask spread as buyers and sellers align on pricing.
Furthermore, lower cost of capital will be accretive to returns for some investors and support increased investment volumes. As a result, we expect more robust investment activity in 2025.
What’s the outlook for the European sale-leaseback market?
Even with interest rates declining, sale-leasebacks will continue to be an attractive solution for companies looking to boost cash flow.
First and foremost, a sale-leaseback frees up capital tied up in illiquid real estate, allowing for greater financial resilience and flexibility without disrupting operations. Companies that pursue a sale-leaseback also benefit from predictable rental payments, making these deals a lower-risk alternative to volatile investments like the bond market. This combination of predictability and adaptability make sale-leasebacks a practical capital solution for companies with real estate assets.
In addition, analysts expect the M&A market to rebound in 2025 as sponsor activity increases, regulatory and monetary dynamics normalize, and corporates continue to streamline and simplify their portfolios. When M&A activity increases, there is often an uptick in sale-leaseback opportunities, as private equity firms look to leverage sale-leaseback financing as part of the capital stack for new acquisitions or to support portfolio company growth.
How will ESG reporting requirements impact the European real estate market?
Sustainability is no longer “just a buzzword” in European real estate strategies. Investor demands, tenant preferences and regulatory requirements are driving companies to prioritize energy efficiency and carbon reduction. With the EU setting ambitious targets for carbon neutrality, businesses that own real estate must find ways to fund necessary upgrades.
What some may not realize is that sale-leasebacks offer a great solution, allowing companies to unlock the value of owned real estate to finance energy efficiency upgrades, solar installations and other sustainability-driven improvements. This not only ensures compliance with evolving regulations but also helps reduce their carbon footprint—all while maintaining full operational control of their facility.
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Expectations for MIPIM 2024
MIPIM, the world's largest real estate conference, will get underway in Cannes next month with over 20,000 delegates expected to attend. As in years past, many will be looking for the conference to bring some clarity on what the real estate industry should be looking out for in the year ahead. While the industry outlook remains murky, investors entered 2024 with a sense of optimism. Here are the biggest questions delegates will be looking to answer at MIPIM 2024. Have Eurozone interest rates reached their peak? The market consensus is generally that the European Central Bank (ECB) has completed or is nearing the end of its rate hiking cycle. However, much to the disappointment of the market, the ECB did not give an indication on when rates would be cut. As a result, a continued upward pressure on yields and downward pressure on real estate valuations is expected through 2024. On a positive note, interest rates reaching their plateau should help jump start the investment market. Greater predictability will contribute to value discovery, cap rate stabilization and tightening bid-ask spreads. This will result in greater transaction activity and hopefully many discussions around prospective deals at MIPIM! What's the outlook for the European sale-leaseback market? Given borrowing costs are expected to remain high in 2024, sale-leasebacks will continue to be an attractive solution for companies to unlock the value of otherwise illiquid real estate assets. Furthermore, with a large share of speculative-grade debt expected to mature in 2025 and 2026, more companies will likely leverage sale-leasebacks for additional proceeds to get refinancing done. Sale-leasebacks offer permanent, long-term capital with no refinancing risk or balloon payments, which remains a very attractive alternative for companies in need of extra cash. In addition, M&A activity is expected to increase in 2024, with private equity firms sitting on over $2.5 trillion in dry powder. Typically when M&A activity increases, there is an uptick in sale-leaseback opportunities, as private equity firms are increasingly leveraging sale-leaseback financing as part of the capital stack for new acquisitions. How can the real estate industry make ESG commitments a reality? The rollout of the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) has put increased pressure on real estate companies to both implement and report on their ESG initiatives. As a result, companies are developing strategic plans to create and maintain sustainable real estate portfolios while also preparing to meet upcoming compliance standards. The challenge the real estate industry faces today is turning commitments into reality. One of the most important steps companies can take is creating more efficient and automated processes for the procurement and management of ESG data. The use of business intelligence and building technology significantly enhances the data collection process, allowing companies to evaluate potential building improvements, review opportunities to reduce emissions and meet future reporting requirements. MIPIM offers a valuable platform for the industry to discuss new ideas and possible solutions related to ESG.
A Bumpy Road Ahead, but Reasons for Optimism: Key Takeaways from MIPIM 2023
Last month, 23,000 CRE professionals traveled to Cannes for MIPIM 2023 – Europe’s largest real estate conference. Attendees soaked in the French Riviera sun on La Croisette as they gathered to discuss today’s real estate market and the potential opportunities and challenges that lie ahead. Shakeups and surprises in the financial markets took center stage, but optimism about the future of the commercial real estate market remained. Here were the three biggest topics that dominated the discussion and our perspective on what it means for the future. Financial market turmoil The conference kicked off amidst the largest banking failure in more than a decade with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), followed by the dramatic fall in the stock price of Credit Suisse and the subsequent announcement that UBS would be acquiring the company. The banking sector turmoil became a hot topic of conversation, with delegates divided over the economic impact of these micro-shocks. Some believed the downfall of SVB and Credit Suisse were not a signal for the entire economy, given SVB operated in a very specific ecosystem and Credit Suisse had faced a number of problems going back several years. Others felt it was eerily similar to the bank failures in 2008 and an indication we are moving into a financial crisis. Laser focus on interest rates For some delegates, the outlook off the back of the banking turmoil remained positive, as many thought the banking crisis would help stave off the Central Bank’s appetite for rate increases in their battle against inflation. Ultimately, this proved to be short-lived given the European Central Bank’s decision to raise interest rates across the Eurozone by 0.5 percentage points on March 16 and the Federal Reserve’s move to raise rates by 0.25 percentage points the following week. Interest rates, and the broader discussion concerning the pace of hikes, were topics already in focus long before MIPIM began. However, during the conference, there emerged a growing consensus that we are entering a new stage of the market with higher interest rates likely staying for the foreseeable future and old pricing levels now a thing of the past. Opportunities still available Where to source attractive investment opportunities was another key topic in Cannes. Similar to years prior, logistics led the way with regard to positive investor sentiment. Attendees agreed the fundamentals for the asset class remain strong, although in some markets many pointed out that logistics cap rates were slow to adjust to rising interest rates. Office, on the other hand, has largely fallen out of favor with investors given work-from-home and hybrid schedules remaining in place for many companies. Our perspective If an economic downturn is on our horizon, W. P. Carey is well positioned to weather the storm given we have a 50-year history of operating in all economic cycles. Our portfolio diversification, disciplined underwriting and lease structuring, and our well-positioned balance sheet, make us one of the safest REITs in terms of downside protection. As an all-equity buyer, W. P. Carey also remains well positioned to execute on deals and offer certainty of close given we aren’t reliant on third-party debt financing. For example, we recently announced a cross-border sale-leaseback of an industrial portfolio in Spain and Italy with Siderforgerossi, a leading manufacturer of specialized forged metal components. The facilities represent a significant portion of the company’s manufacturing footprint and are triple-net leased for a term of 25 years with annual rent increases. Despite the bumpy road ahead, I remain optimistic about the future. Rising interest rates make sale-leasebacks a more attractive financing option for corporates on a relative basis, meaning we’ll likely see an influx in opportunities in 2023. We always say that sale-leasebacks are a good tool in good times, but a great tool in uncertain times, and this sentiment couldn’t ring more true than it does today.
The Return to Cannes: Takeaways from MIPIM 2022
Following a pandemic-induced hiatus, MIPIM, Europe’s largest real estate event of the year, finally returned to the idyllic city of Cannes. More than 20,000 attendees eagerly came out to meet in-person and discuss the most prevalent topics and issues impacting the real estate sector. During my experience at the four-day event, the following major themes unsurprisingly dominated most of the conversations: rising interest rates and inflation, the conflict in Ukraine and ESG. Here’s my take on how those may impact our business and the broader European real estate market. Interest Rates and Inflation Similar to the U.S., inflation in Europe is reaching highs not seen in several decades with euro area inflation hitting 5.8% in February, driven primarily by rising energy prices and supply chain challenges. As a result of fast-rising inflation, central banks worldwide will likely pursue an increasingly hawkish strategy, bringing forward interest rate increases. All-equity buyers like W. P. Carey may be better positioned to execute on deals in this environment since they are not reliant on third-party debt financing. From a seller’s perspective, the timing to pursue a sale-leaseback may have never been better – locking in a long-term rental rate now while cap rates remain low, and before interest rates begin to rise significantly. War in Ukraine We are incredibly saddened by the events unfolding in Ukraine and are committed to doing our part to support those in need. As of now, it’s difficult to say how exactly the war will impact the real estate market but it will likely continue to stoke the flame of rising inflation globally due to economic disruptions which could further impact interest rates and borrowing costs. It’s also possible that some companies may take a “wait and see” approach to investing in neighboring countries to Ukraine and Russia until there’s more clarity on when the conflict will end. Focus on ESG ESG remained a prominent topic, particularly as regulatory and disclosure requirements continue to increase, forcing companies to define concrete, measurable goals. With the main theme of MIPIM being “driving urban change,” there was certainly a lot of discussion surrounding how the real estate industry can tackle climate change and net zero emissions as well as ensuring sustainability of new developments. At W. P. Carey, we are intensely focused on ESG. In 2021, we invested in several green buildings, including the acquisition of a 1.1-million-square-foot, BREEAM-certified logistics facility in the U.K., net leased to Jaguar Land Rover. We also issued our first green bond offering last year with $350 million of proceeds earmarked for green projects. From an asset management perspective, we take a proactive approach to communicating with our tenants on sustainability projects that can reduce their environmental impact and reduce operating costs, such as solar panels and building efficiency retrofits. For example, we worked with our tenant Sonae MC in Portugal on the installation of a solar roof which was completed last year. We also worked with our tenant Nippon Express on the installation of a one-million-square-foot solar roof, which is now one of the largest solar rooftops in Europe. While we still have much progress to make, we are focused on reducing the carbon footprint of our portfolio and believe that green buildings are not only beneficial for the environment but can also have a significant business impact for W. P. Carey, including increasing property values, driving higher rents and attracting high-caliber tenants.