A Bumpy Road Ahead, but Reasons for Optimism: Key Takeaways from MIPIM 2023
Head of European Investments Christopher Mertlitz discusses key themes emerging from this year's MIPIM conference
Last month, 23,000 CRE professionals traveled to Cannes for MIPIM 2023 – Europe’s largest real estate conference. Attendees soaked in the French Riviera sun on La Croisette as they gathered to discuss today’s real estate market and the potential opportunities and challenges that lie ahead. Shakeups and surprises in the financial markets took center stage, but optimism about the future of the commercial real estate market remained. Here were the three biggest topics that dominated the discussion and our perspective on what it means for the future.
Financial market turmoil
The conference kicked off amidst the largest banking failure in more than a decade with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), followed by the dramatic fall in the stock price of Credit Suisse and the subsequent announcement that UBS would be acquiring the company. The banking sector turmoil became a hot topic of conversation, with delegates divided over the economic impact of these micro-shocks. Some believed the downfall of SVB and Credit Suisse were not a signal for the entire economy, given SVB operated in a very specific ecosystem and Credit Suisse had faced a number of problems going back several years. Others felt it was eerily similar to the bank failures in 2008 and an indication we are moving into a financial crisis.
Laser focus on interest rates
For some delegates, the outlook off the back of the banking turmoil remained positive, as many thought the banking crisis would help stave off the Central Bank’s appetite for rate increases in their battle against inflation. Ultimately, this proved to be short-lived given the European Central Bank’s decision to raise interest rates across the Eurozone by 0.5 percentage points on March 16 and the Federal Reserve’s move to raise rates by 0.25 percentage points the following week.
Interest rates, and the broader discussion concerning the pace of hikes, were topics already in focus long before MIPIM began. However, during the conference, there emerged a growing consensus that we are entering a new stage of the market with higher interest rates likely staying for the foreseeable future and old pricing levels now a thing of the past.
Opportunities still available
Where to source attractive investment opportunities was another key topic in Cannes. Similar to years prior, logistics led the way with regard to positive investor sentiment. Attendees agreed the fundamentals for the asset class remain strong, although in some markets many pointed out that logistics cap rates were slow to adjust to rising interest rates. Office, on the other hand, has largely fallen out of favor with investors given work-from-home and hybrid schedules remaining in place for many companies.
Our perspective
If an economic downturn is on our horizon, W. P. Carey is well positioned to weather the storm given we have a 50-year history of operating in all economic cycles. Our portfolio diversification, disciplined underwriting and lease structuring, and our well-positioned balance sheet, make us one of the safest REITs in terms of downside protection.
As an all-equity buyer, W. P. Carey also remains well positioned to execute on deals and offer certainty of close given we aren’t reliant on third-party debt financing. For example, we recently announced a cross-border sale-leaseback of an industrial portfolio in Spain and Italy with Siderforgerossi, a leading manufacturer of specialized forged metal components. The facilities represent a significant portion of the company’s manufacturing footprint and are triple-net leased for a term of 25 years with annual rent increases.
Despite the bumpy road ahead, I remain optimistic about the future. Rising interest rates make sale-leasebacks a more attractive financing option for corporates on a relative basis, meaning we’ll likely see an influx in opportunities in 2023. We always say that sale-leasebacks are a good tool in good times, but a great tool in uncertain times, and this sentiment couldn’t ring more true than it does today.
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The Return to Cannes: Takeaways from MIPIM 2022
Following a pandemic-induced hiatus, MIPIM, Europe’s largest real estate event of the year, finally returned to the idyllic city of Cannes. More than 20,000 attendees eagerly came out to meet in-person and discuss the most prevalent topics and issues impacting the real estate sector. During my experience at the four-day event, the following major themes unsurprisingly dominated most of the conversations: rising interest rates and inflation, the conflict in Ukraine and ESG. Here’s my take on how those may impact our business and the broader European real estate market. Interest Rates and Inflation Similar to the U.S., inflation in Europe is reaching highs not seen in several decades with euro area inflation hitting 5.8% in February, driven primarily by rising energy prices and supply chain challenges. As a result of fast-rising inflation, central banks worldwide will likely pursue an increasingly hawkish strategy, bringing forward interest rate increases. All-equity buyers like W. P. Carey may be better positioned to execute on deals in this environment since they are not reliant on third-party debt financing. From a seller’s perspective, the timing to pursue a sale-leaseback may have never been better – locking in a long-term rental rate now while cap rates remain low, and before interest rates begin to rise significantly. War in Ukraine We are incredibly saddened by the events unfolding in Ukraine and are committed to doing our part to support those in need. As of now, it’s difficult to say how exactly the war will impact the real estate market but it will likely continue to stoke the flame of rising inflation globally due to economic disruptions which could further impact interest rates and borrowing costs. It’s also possible that some companies may take a “wait and see” approach to investing in neighboring countries to Ukraine and Russia until there’s more clarity on when the conflict will end. Focus on ESG ESG remained a prominent topic, particularly as regulatory and disclosure requirements continue to increase, forcing companies to define concrete, measurable goals. With the main theme of MIPIM being “driving urban change,” there was certainly a lot of discussion surrounding how the real estate industry can tackle climate change and net zero emissions as well as ensuring sustainability of new developments. At W. P. Carey, we are intensely focused on ESG. In 2021, we invested in several green buildings, including the acquisition of a 1.1-million-square-foot, BREEAM-certified logistics facility in the U.K., net leased to Jaguar Land Rover. We also issued our first green bond offering last year with $350 million of proceeds earmarked for green projects. From an asset management perspective, we take a proactive approach to communicating with our tenants on sustainability projects that can reduce their environmental impact and reduce operating costs, such as solar panels and building efficiency retrofits. For example, we worked with our tenant Sonae MC in Portugal on the installation of a solar roof which was completed last year. We also worked with our tenant Nippon Express on the installation of a one-million-square-foot solar roof, which is now one of the largest solar rooftops in Europe. While we still have much progress to make, we are focused on reducing the carbon footprint of our portfolio and believe that green buildings are not only beneficial for the environment but can also have a significant business impact for W. P. Carey, including increasing property values, driving higher rents and attracting high-caliber tenants.
It's Sale-Leaseback's Time to Shine
The current capital environment has tested the adaptability of many companies, as increasing interest rates have made the cost of capital rise uncomfortably. And while it’s unknown if recent events will calm the Federal Reserve’s zeal for future hikes, some companies are already availing themselves of an alternative capital source: the sale-leaseback. In fact, the transaction type matched its 2019 peak in Q4 of 2021, and there are signs it may not be slowing. Zachary Pasanen, managing director, investments at W. P. Carey, sees two big factors playing into the current interest in sale-leaseback: cheaper cost of capital and extra liquidity during tough times. A Corporate Alternative to Expensive Capital A major concern for corporate real estate holders is reducing the cost of capital for the next several years. As Pasanen notes, while they are “not quite desperate yet, the lag between interest rates and cap rates hadn’t caught up six months ago, but it’s starting to now. Prudent CFOs are looking to maximize capital and a long-term sale-leaseback is a great way to do that.” A sale-leaseback offers a “naturally accretive” alternative funding source. Holders of good, fungible, mission-critical real estate that are willing to sign a long-term lease with market or better rental increases built in will likely find that the underlying rate with which they can monetize those assets is inside the going long-term borrowing rate, according to Pasanen. The 50-year-old REIT’s predominant focus has been on warehousing, specialty manufacturing and food production, but it also delves into the education and retail sectors, the latter ranging from experiential sites to fitness-related products to auto repair locations. “By and large, we’ll look at anything as long as there’s criticality to it, meaning the stuff is made at our subject facilities or there’s a really strong location story to it or rent coverage or just a good real estate fundamental story,” Pasanen says. A Liquidity Solution for Tough Times Another consideration facing corporate real estate owners is having the capital on hand to weather the current economic instability. Rates again become a major problem, especially for companies or properties that might be lower on the credit spectrum. “For companies facing challenges that don’t have the ability to finance at attractive rates it’s a very simple calculus: if your borrowing costs go up that’s going to eat into your profit margins and there are only so many levers you can play with when operating a business,” Pasanen said. “They have to be laser-focused on how to get through this period of instability and unknowns.” Sale-leasebacks appeal here as well, allowing companies to put money back into their core competencies or pay down shorter-term debt that’s gotten more expensive, or perhaps even expand given that acquisition targets may have become cheaper. But Pasanen also notes that W. P. Carey’s sale-leaseback business is not just a capital product for troubled times, whether or not it’s on top of mind for companies and owners. “A sale-leaseback is a good tool in good times and a great tool in really uncertain times,” says Pasanen.
Where Net Lease is Heading
With financing options restricted by interest rate uncertainty, corporate real estate sellers have been turning to sale-leasebacks. It’s easy to see why: these deals offer liquidity and immediacy. For the net lease sector at large, Tyler Swann, managing director, investments at W. P. Carey, is seeing US deal flow coming almost exclusively from new sale-leasebacks versus acquisitions of existing leases, a change largely driven by the changing capital markets landscape. CRE Psychology Playing Catch-up As interest rates have risen and asset values have fallen, the pricing expectations of sellers have not followed suit. That’s led the market to favor new sale-leasebacks as opposed to investment properties that are acquired from third-party landlords, Swann says. "There's a disconnect between what buyers can realistically pay given current capital markets and what a seller wants,” he says. “It takes time for psychological expectations of sellers to reset and I think we haven't seen that play out just yet, which is why those existing lease deals haven't really been moving or coming to market at all.” New sale-leaseback sellers are more realistic, comparing and choosing the costs of such a deal versus the current cost of capital, especially the added expense of raising debt in the current high interest rate environment. The benefits of the here and now – unlocking their CRE equity means it's "go time" for deals, unlike the often disparate expectations of a third-party landlord seller. Open Opportunity, With Caveats While there are fewer overall opportunities in the net-lease market compared to the last couple of years, there are fewer market challengers due to the more restricted financing options. “Plenty of investors who were very competitive just a couple of years ago, for example, were reliant on CMBS debt and are now no longer nearly as competitive as they used to be,” Swann says. “And that's given us a leg up.” Office demand continues to suffer from uncertainty, mainly from lagging return-to-office efforts and hard-to-figure valuations given the large amounts of vacant and shadow space. On the plus side, Swann views the industrial sector as the most favored by net lease investors, as strong demand post-COVID for logistics facilities persists, with companies building out their supply chains amid a more general move to on-shoring production. Earlier this year, W. P. Carey completed an approximately $468 million, 20-year lease sale-leaseback with Apotex for a portfolio of pharmaceutical manufacturing assets in the greater Toronto area. Swann points out that the combination of sector (industrial), type (new vs. existing lease) and trend (taking advantage of better cost of capital through a sale-leaseback) all led to the deal getting done. “In a lot of ways I think that Apotex deal is a good example of where the market is going,” says Swann.