M&A
2026 Net Lease Outlook
After several years marked by inflation, interest rate uncertainty and selective buyer activity, the U.S. net lease market enters 2026 with more clarity – and more momentum. As pricing resets work through the real estate sector and investors gain confidence in the direction of capital markets, we expect an increase in transaction volume in the year ahead. Below are three predictions set to shape the U.S. net lease landscape in 2026. Transaction Volume Will Rebound as Pricing Stabilizes The reset in valuations throughout 2024 and 2025 has narrowed bid‑ask spreads and revived buyer activity. As the sector digested Fed policy shifts and debt markets steadied, transaction activity began increasing meaningfully – particularly in industrial and logistics. As a result, we expect a measurable uptick in volume in 2026 as investors lean into improved cost‑of‑capital visibility. Colliers forecasts that U.S. CRE transaction volume will grow 15–20% in 2026. Industrial Will Continue to Dominate Industrial demand is positioned to remain strong in 2026. As trade‑policy uncertainty eased in late 2025, many companies who had paused expansion or relocation decisions finally moved forward, bringing a wave of leasing activity that is carrying into the new year. E‑commerce also continues to be a powerful structural driver, underpinning robust leasing demand as retailers and logistics operators expand fulfillment capacity to meet consumer needs. At the same time, development pipelines have slowed, allowing the market to work through new supply. As a result, vacancy is expected to stabilize in 2026, reinforcing a fundamentally balanced environment for investors and occupiers alike. Rising M&A Activity Will Drive New Sale‑Leaseback Opportunities An anticipated rise in M&A activity will likely fuel an increase in sale‑leaseback opportunities in 2026. Private equity firms often use sale-leasebacks to reduce upfront equity requirements and enhance returns when acquiring a new business, especially in deals where real estate represents a meaningful share of the purchase price. On the post-acquisition side, sale-leasebacks can offer PE firms considerable financial flexibility, supporting reinvestment into the portfolio company’s business or even future follow-on acquisitions. Altogether, the anticipated surge in M&A is expected to expand the pipeline of high‑quality real estate coming to market, providing ample opportunity for sale-leaseback investors. Final Thoughts As 2026 unfolds, the U.S. net lease market is entering a period of renewed stability and opportunity. With transaction volumes rebounding, industrial demand holding firm and sale-leaseback activity accelerating alongside M&A trends, investors have multiple avenues to deploy capital strategically. Staying attuned to these drivers will be essential for navigating the year ahead.
Sale-leaseback Activity Expected to Grow as Capital Conditions Improve in 2026
After a slow start, sale-leaseback activity saw a resurgence in the second half of 2025. Early in the year, activity was dampened by uncertain fundamentals and macroeconomic headwinds, but momentum returned as market conditions stabilized. “It was a year of growth, particularly for industrial middle-market sale-leasebacks, which are a large part of W. P. Carey’s business,” says Tyler Swann, managing director, investments, at W. P. Carey. With interest rates stabilizing and companies continuing to explore innovative ways to raise capital, sale-leaseback activity is expected to remain strong in the new year. Falling Rates Support a Strong Outlook For many businesses, changing capital conditions play a major role in decision-making. Swann notes that long-term rates, which directly impact sale-leaseback pricing, have been trending downward. He explains that the 10-year US Treasury rate started the year in the mid to high fours, before settling around 4%, improving the cost of capital and creating stronger incentives for companies to act. “Lower cost of debt and equity enabled us to offer lower cap rates to potential tenants,” says Swann. He adds that when interest rates decline, companies often feel more comfortable making longer-term capital commitments, including sale-leasebacks with 10-, 15- or 20-year terms. Improved Trade Clarity Continues to Strengthen Activity Uncertainty around trade policy has created pockets of hesitation among many companies as they weigh their decisions. “Some people didn’t want to make long-term commitments to facilities, not knowing exactly what the trade policy was going to look like,” says Swann. “However, the threat of tariffs has begun to temper and, as a result, activity is getting stronger.” He notes that trade uncertainty has also pushed some companies to double down on their commitments to domestic supply chains. Swann adds that industrial vacancy remains low in many markets and rental rates have generally held steady or increased, reinforcing investors’ appetite to acquire these types of assets through sale-leasebacks. Improving Capital Conditions Create a Tailwind for 2026 With long-term rates stabilizing or slightly declining over the past year, Swann expects these shifts to remain a positive influence on sale-leasebacks. “I anticipate this stability to be a tailwind for investment activity for the same reason it was in 2025,” he says. He also points to merger and acquisition activity as another area to watch. Swann believes a pickup in private equity transactions could further boost sale-leaseback volume in the coming year. As interest rates continue to inch lower, he notes that activity may resemble more active periods of previous cycles, setting the stage for a strong 2026.
Net Lease Investors Adapt as Economic Uncertainty Lingers
Tariffs, interest rate fluctuations and macroeconomic uncertainties continue to reshape the net lease investment market. As these factors evolve, investors are working to make long-term decisions in an uncertain environment. “There’s a lot of volatility, especially around tariffs and trade policy,” says Jason Patterson, executive director of investments at W. P. Carey. “It’s difficult for a CFO or CEO to commit to a 20-year lease when so many of these factors are changing day to day.” This unpredictability has tempered deal volume, but as conditions stabilize, Patterson expects a resurgence in activity later in the year. The Impact of Interest Rate Volatility Interest rates have been a focal point for investors, particularly given their impact on pricing and transaction volumes. While rates have been trending downward recently, the past year has seen continued fluctuations, making it challenging for buyers and sellers to align on pricing expectations. “Investors really track the 10-year US Treasury as a guidepost for risk and pricing,” Patterson says. “The volatility we’ve seen has widened the bid-ask gap in many cases, making it harder for deals to come together.” He notes that as interest rates stabilize, market conditions should improve, leading to increased deal flow. Sale-Leasebacks Still Attractive Alternative to Unlocking Capital Uncertain economic conditions often prompt corporate real estate owners to explore sale-leaseback transactions as a means of unlocking capital. While Patterson hasn’t seen a major uptick yet, he expects that to change as 2025 progresses. “There are early signs of increased sale-leaseback activity,” Patterson says. “While we haven’t seen a huge spike just yet, M&A activity has been improving, and sale-leaseback volume often follows that trend.” He also notes that while uncertainty can sometimes deter companies from making long-term commitments, it can also push them toward alternative capital options, such as sale-leasebacks, to improve liquidity. Preparing for What’s Next With so much uncertainty, investors are focusing on proactive strategies to reduce risk and position themselves for long-term success. According to Patterson, much of this work happens upfront, from structuring leases with protective provisions to ensuring asset selection aligns with long-term needs. “The good thing about net leases is that once you’ve bought a building and signed a lease, there’s an expectation of long-term stability and predictability,” he explains. “The key is making sure those early decisions — such as lease structuring and tenant selection — are as strong as possible.” Active asset management also plays an important role. Maintaining strong relationships with tenants, tracking performance and being flexible with their needs can help investors handle potential challenges in the future. While economic uncertainty continues to persist, investors who remain disciplined and adaptable will be well positioned for success, and Patterson remains optimistic about the net lease market in the months ahead. “I don’t see an impending cliff or major downturn,” he says. “The best approach is to stay informed, track policy changes and make smart, forward-looking decisions.”
MIPIM 2025: Is the European Real Estate Market on the Rise?
The annual real estate gathering in Cannes, MIPIM 2025, is set to kick off next week. As in previous years, more than 20,000 delegates will gather to discuss both the opportunities and challenges facing the European real estate industry. While concerns about the market remain—including geopolitical tensions, inflation and future monetary policy decisions—investors have entered the year with a sense of cautious optimism. As real estate professionals gear up for an insightful conference, here are the key questions they will be looking to address. Will the European deal environment improve in 2025? 2024 was a year of transition for the real estate industry, with inflation gradually aligning with target levels and interest rates reaching their peak. In the latter half of the year, central banks began to lower interest rates, albeit slower—and in smaller increments—than some expected. Despite analysts projecting only modest European economic growth in 2025, the real estate investment market stands poised for a gradual recovery. Market participants have largely come to the realization that rates will remain higher for longer, bringing some stability to transaction markets. This has further narrowed the bid-ask spread as buyers and sellers align on pricing. Furthermore, lower cost of capital will be accretive to returns for some investors and support increased investment volumes. As a result, we expect more robust investment activity in 2025. What’s the outlook for the European sale-leaseback market? Even with interest rates declining, sale-leasebacks will continue to be an attractive solution for companies looking to boost cash flow. First and foremost, a sale-leaseback frees up capital tied up in illiquid real estate, allowing for greater financial resilience and flexibility without disrupting operations. Companies that pursue a sale-leaseback also benefit from predictable rental payments, making these deals a lower-risk alternative to volatile investments like the bond market. This combination of predictability and adaptability make sale-leasebacks a practical capital solution for companies with real estate assets. In addition, analysts expect the M&A market to rebound in 2025 as sponsor activity increases, regulatory and monetary dynamics normalize, and corporates continue to streamline and simplify their portfolios. When M&A activity increases, there is often an uptick in sale-leaseback opportunities, as private equity firms look to leverage sale-leaseback financing as part of the capital stack for new acquisitions or to support portfolio company growth. How will ESG reporting requirements impact the European real estate market? Sustainability is no longer “just a buzzword” in European real estate strategies. Investor demands, tenant preferences and regulatory requirements are driving companies to prioritize energy efficiency and carbon reduction. With the EU setting ambitious targets for carbon neutrality, businesses that own real estate must find ways to fund necessary upgrades. What some may not realize is that sale-leasebacks offer a great solution, allowing companies to unlock the value of owned real estate to finance energy efficiency upgrades, solar installations and other sustainability-driven improvements. This not only ensures compliance with evolving regulations but also helps reduce their carbon footprint—all while maintaining full operational control of their facility.
How Sale-Leasebacks Help PE Raise Capital in a Tight Market
Funding for growth, refinancing corporate debt, and merger and acquisition activities are top priorities for many private equity firms. A recent PwC report noted that 60% of CEOs plan to make at least one acquisition in the next three years. The report further explains that lower levels of M&A activity during 2023 created “pent-up buyer demand” moving into the current year. However, tapping into capital isn’t always easy when it is locked in assets. “It’s quite inefficient for private equity firms to have capital tied up in real estate assets that aren’t earning for them,” says Tyler Swann, managing director, investments at W. P. Carey. “An alternative is doing a sale-leaseback, which provides a much lower cost of accessing capital than traditional financing methods.” Understanding sale-leasebacks and their advantages can help private equity firms strategically manage growth funding, debt maturities and other capital needs. The advantages of sale-leasebacks With traditional financing strategies such as mortgages, terms are often shorter and exposed to higher market volatility. Accessing capital can also be time-consuming, a challenge for firms that need to move quickly for acquisition deals. That’s not the case with sale-leasebacks, notes Swann. “Sale-leasebacks are very flexible,” says Swann. “The processing time can be as short as 30 to 45 days between the initial call and the actual funding. It’s not unusual for us to get a call from a private equity firm saying, ‘We’re closing on a business in 30 days; can you be there to close with us as acquisition financing?’ And that’s something we can do.” He explains that capital uses also have very few restrictions, with the most common purposes being acquisition financing, dividend payments, and refinancing maturing debt. Misconceptions about sale-leasebacks As private equity firms consider sale-leasebacks, questions often linger regarding who qualifies for this type of financing. Many believe that because their real estate is in a secondary or tertiary market, or their asset doesn’t have a huge value, they won’t qualify. But according to Swann, that’s not necessarily true. “If you have a specialized manufacturing facility in a small market, you may think it won’t qualify because it’s not a high-quality warehouse in a market like Southern California,” says Swann. “Despite where an asset is located, if it’s profitable and contributing to the bottom line of a business, it could be a great candidate for a sale-leaseback.” As the market progresses through 2024, Swann expects sale-leaseback activity to continue upward, partly due to M&A activity and its flexibility to tap into capital quickly. “Every year, sale-leasebacks become a little more accepted in the private equity community as a source of financing,” says W. P. Carey’s Swann. “Ten or 20 years ago, corporate debt was by far the dominant option, but we continue to see an increase in sale-leaseback deals every year.”
Looking into the Crystal Ball
2023 was undoubtedly a challenging year for the net lease sector. High inflation, rising interest rates and other economic uncertainty caused a notable decrease in overall transaction volume, sparking apprehension about the trajectory of the industry. However, there have been some signs of renewed life in the market. Most experts believe we have hit the interest rate peak and expect cuts to be made in 2024. In addition, dealmakers generally anticipate that the M&A environment will improve given the market has stabilized, which could bring more investment opportunities to the market. While no one has a perfect crystal ball about what the future will hold, there are certainly reasons for optimism in 2024. Here are three net lease market predictions for the year ahead. Boost in net lease deal volume fueled by projected interest rate cuts The U.S. Federal Reserve indicated in its latest summary of economic projections that three cuts may be coming in the year ahead. The cuts are expected to be slow and gradual and will be dependent on the state of the economy, but investors reliant on third-party debt are hoping for a much-needed reduction in borrowing costs to remain competitive. The signaling of rate cuts is positive news for the market as it means interest rates have most likely reached their peak. This should help the market stabilize therefore narrowing the bid-ask spread between buyers and sellers, leading to a more active deal environment in 2024. In addition, many investors who have stood on the sidelines in anticipation that there will be more favorable opportunities down the road are likely to start jumping back into the market in 2024 and new entrants are expected to join in. Uptick in private equity sale-leasebacks as M&A surges The dealmaking environment in 2024 is already off to a better start than 2023. Inflation has declined, interest rates have likely reached their peak and private credit has become more widely available for more kinds of deals, while traditional credit markets are starting to improve. Private equity firms are also sitting on an unprecedented amount of dry powder – $2.59 trillion – with mounting pressures to deploy that capital into new investments. As a result, M&A activity is expected to increase in 2024. Along with an uptick in dealmaking, savvy private equity firms are expected to continue looking for alternative strategies for growth given lingering economic and geopolitical uncertainties. One effective strategy is through the sale-leaseback of their portfolio company real estate, which allows private equity firms to unlock immediate capital to redeploy into other initiatives, such as new acquisitions or portfolio company growth. Typically, when M&A activity surges, sale-leaseback opportunities follow, so more private equity-backed real estate deals will likely emerge in 2024. Pandemic office trends remain while industrial holds steady More than three years since the start of the pandemic, the real estate industry has finally accepted that the office sector will not return to the way it was before – and hybrid- and- remote work models are here to stay. As a result, offices have lost much of their appeal for investors, with transactions declining more than twice as much as any other property sector in 2023. W. P. Carey announced its strategic plan to exit office last year, through the spin-off of 59 office properties into Net Lease Office Properties and an office sale program to dispose of the remaining on-balance sheet assets. This trend is expected to continue into 2024 and some office investors will likely start to look for alternative uses for office assets – such as residential or industrial. Industrial, on the other hand, will continue to perform well into 2024, as re-shoring and nearshoring provide a boost to the sector. While the asset class is showing some signs of softening post-pandemic as the need for robust inventory decreases, the long-term outlook remains positive. Moody’s Analytics CRE forecasts that annual rent growth for warehouse and distribution properties will track at approximately 5-6% per year over the next 10 years, suggesting that the sector has moved on from its huge boom into a steadier state of growth.
How Private Equity Can Leverage Sale-leasebacks
Sale-leasebacks are often used by private equity firms to raise capital to support portfolio company growth. Through a sale-leaseback, private equity firms can unlock otherwise illiquid capital tied up in portfolio company real estate and reinvest the proceeds into its core business. Here’s how private equity firms can leverage sale-leasebacks to generate long-term value: Maximize portfolio company value by reinvesting sale-leaseback capital into its operations Following the completion of a sale-leaseback, private equity firms can immediately invest the proceeds into its portfolio company’s business operations to support long-term growth. These include investments in new facilities, technology, equipment, R&D and human capital. The benefit of pursuing a sale-leaseback instead of other debt alternatives is that PE firms can realize 100% fair market value for the portfolio company real estate. For example, W. P. Carey worked with a middle-market private equity firm on the $19 million sale-leaseback of two industrial facilities leased to a global distributor of plastics. The private equity firm used the transaction proceeds to secure long-term capital to expand portfolio company operations and fund future growth initiatives. Pay down existing debt and provide portfolio companies with balance sheet flexibility Private equity firms can use sale-leasebacks as a method to recapitalize and strengthen the credit metrics of their portfolio companies. Particularly for smaller, non-credit-rated companies that cannot access the capital markets, a sale-leaseback is a great tool to provide balance sheet flexibility and enable portfolio companies to pay down maturing debt and other liabilities. By improving the balance sheet, private equity firms can position a portfolio company for a credit upgrade or even an IPO, maximizing the long-term value of the company. In 2020, W. P. Carey provided a private equity firm $40 million in sale-leaseback financing for a manufacturing facility leased to a global leader in barbecue grills and accessories. Proceeds were used to pay down debt and improve the balance sheet, helping position the company for a positive credit improvement. Shortly after the sale-leaseback, the company completed an IPO raising over $250 million. Compete more effectively for new acquisitions and M&A Sale-leasebacks can be used by private equity firms to help finance add-on acquisitions – where a PE firm acquires a new company and mergers it with an existing portfolio company to generate growth. By carving out real estate from a business during or post-acquisition, private equity firms can unlock substantially higher value for the real estate due to the spread between the lower cash flow multiple paid to acquire the business and the much higher cash flow multiple received from the sale of the real estate itself. As a result, sale-leasebacks are a capital-efficient way to maximize portfolio company growth while also serving as a positive arbitrage opportunity for private equity firms. W. P. Carey worked with a private equity firm on the $29 million sale-leaseback of four industrial facilities leased to a global manufacturer and distributor of vehicle-mounted aerial lifts. Proceeds from the transaction were used to partially fund the manufacturer’s acquisition of a German company in the same industry, enabling them to expand their market share in Europe. Conclusion Sale-leasebacks are a highly attractive capital allocation tool with many strategic and financial benefits for sponsored companies. Real estate financing can be an extremely effective way to fund growth and add value to portfolio companies, particularly in today's high-interest rate environment. In order to maximize proceeds, PE firms considering a portfolio company sale-leaseback should work with an all-equity buyer with experience working with all types of credits. W. P. Carey has partnered with private equity firms and their advisors on these types of transactions since 1973, and has provided over $5.7 billion in capital to PE firms and their portfolio companies. If you’re interested in pursuing a portfolio company sale-leaseback, please contact us at globalinvestments@wpcarey.com.
What to Know When Leveraging Sale-leasebacks to Finance M&A
The global M&A market experienced record activity in 2021, topping $5 trillion for the first time as unprecedented dry powder, a low cost of capital and demand for inorganic growth fueled dealmaking. Savvy corporate acquirers and private equity investors looking to jump in on the action have seized the opportunity to use creative financing options that unlock equity, strengthen balance sheets and free up capital for strategic initiatives and additional transactions. Enter stage right, the sale-leaseback. In 2021, sale-leaseback volume topped $24 billion, up from nearly $13 billion in 2020. For those interested in joining the growing number of investors and acquirers leveraging sale-leaseback financing alternatives to supplement M&A activity, here’s what you need to know. How do you know if a sale-leaseback should be part of an M&A transaction? There are a couple of key considerations in determining whether to pursue a sale-leaseback as part of an M&A strategy. First, identifying whether or not owned real estate is critical to the pro forma business in the long run. A sale-leaseback is a long-term source of financing, so it’s important that the real estate involved is not only critical to the pro forma entity’s operations, but that the company is comfortable with committing to a meaningful lease term. Just as important is understanding the market’s appetite for the specific real estate and rent cash flow in contrast to the entity’s cost of capital. Tenant credit, facility criticality and quality of the real estate are all factors that contribute to how competitive a sale-leaseback strategy might be against more traditional financing strategies in supporting a transaction. How do the current inflation levels and the Fed’s rate hike impact M&A volume and attractiveness of sale-leasebacks? There are certainly some headwinds, with rising rates, the expected tightening of regulation and potential for changes in tax policy all driving a “wait and see” approach for some acquirers. However, activity so far in 2022 is still visible and the recent rate hikes and overall volatility in the debt capital markets make alternatives to traditional debt financing, such as sale-leasebacks, an even more attractive option in funding M&A strategies. What are the advantages of sale-leasebacks compared to more traditional routes of financing? There are quite a few advantages to financing via a sale-leaseback: the avoidance of many traditional debt challenges such as a balloon payment or need to refinance at the end of the term, and in some cases, less stringent financial covenants. In addition, many companies also benefit from the flexibility of extension options and operating lease treatment, all without immediately forgoing control of critical real estate or disrupting day-to-day operations. Depending on the buyer, sellers may also gain a long-term capital partner who can work with them far into the future to ensure their real estate continues to meet their evolving business needs. It’s also important to remember the cost of capital for a real estate investor is often extremely competitive. In some cases, this—coupled with the fact that a real estate investor is better suited for property ownership as it aligns with its core competency—means a real estate investor will buy assets at a higher multiple compared to an M&A target’s valuation, thereby unlocking a value creation opportunity that benefits from the combined operating business and real estate value. In addition, some companies find that by converting illiquid real estate assets into liquid capital at a favorable cost, the pro forma company is able to optimize its cost of capital. Conclusion With optimism that M&A activity will remain strong despite the current market headwinds, I anticipate sale-leaseback activity will continue to soar in 2022, particularly as awareness of this valuable financing strategy among private equity investors and corporate owner-occupiers becomes more prevalent. When working with an experienced real estate investor, sale-leasebacks can be a powerful and reliable tool to finance acquisitions and fuel corporate growth.
Sale-leasebacks Have Become a Critical Tool for PE Firms. Here’s Why.
Growing PE Fund Sizes 2019 first quarter middle market private equity deal activity slowed compared to 2018, with declines in public markets and the government shutdown creating adverse pricing for PE backed IPO exits. Despite decreased deal volume and exit values, fundraising figures remained steady in the quarter, boosting dry powder available for new investments. Strong investor demand led PE firms and sponsors to grow the scale of their funds, with vehicles between $1 billion and $5 billion accounting for over three-quarters of capital raised. In fact, the average PE fund in 2019 has raised 70% more compared to the whole of 2018, demonstrating the substantial increase in fund size, based on data compiled by Pitchbook. Elevated Deal Multiples Multiples on new deals have remained elevated, fueled by the swelling dry powder base. The challenge for PE fund managers is to be competitive on securing new investments while meeting investor return expectations. Consequently, dividend recaps and add-ons have become more common as GPs endeavor to boost returns in the current elevated pricing environment. Increased Deal Sizes and Longer Holding Periods Along with larger funds, deals have grown in size and complexity, and longer holding times for investments are becoming more prevalent. Traditionally PE portfolio companies have been held for three to five years before being exited. Fewer than 50% of middle market exits occur in under five years, with the median holding time currently at 6.8 years. The top 25% of exits are hovering around a decade. As a result, there are increasing numbers of long-dated funds with investment periods extending to 15 years or more. Sale-leasebacks: An Innovative Capital Source to Mitigate Risk and Increase IRR To mitigate the risk of larger deal sizes, higher multiples, longer holding periods and uncertainty around longer-term interest rates, many GPs are turning to sale-leasebacks as a critical component of the capital stack. Because land and buildings tend to sell at higher valuations than the company itself, PE firms can sell a portfolio company real estate asset and rent it back under a long-term lease, thereby capturing a multiple arbitrage and blending down the initial purchase price multiple. Post-acquisition, a sale-leaseback can create liquidity, allowing an earlier return of cash to investors, thereby boosting IRRs. Conclusion In the current environment a sale-leaseback can effectively decrease acquisition multiples and allow PE firms to be more competitive in bidding for new acquisitions. A well-structured sale-leaseback with an experienced capital partner like W. P. Carey provides PE firm portfolio companies with access to an efficient, alternative and flexible source of long-term capital. In addition to helping PE firms achieve targeted investor returns, W. P. Carey works with its tenants on an ongoing basis to support their longer-term operating objectives through follow-on projects including expansions, building upgrades and build-to-suit funding for new facilities. W. P. Carey’s net lease portfolio comprises diverse property types and a range of asset classes in 31 industries and 25 countries, enabling us to work with a wide range of companies.