2026 Net Lease Outlook
Three predictions for the year ahead
After several years marked by inflation, interest rate uncertainty and selective buyer activity, the U.S. net lease market enters 2026 with more clarity – and more momentum. As pricing resets work through the real estate sector and investors gain confidence in the direction of capital markets, we expect an increase in transaction volume in the year ahead.
Below are three predictions set to shape the U.S. net lease landscape in 2026.
Transaction Volume Will Rebound as Pricing Stabilizes
The reset in valuations throughout 2024 and 2025 has narrowed bid‑ask spreads and revived buyer activity. As the sector digested Fed policy shifts and debt markets steadied, transaction activity began increasing meaningfully – particularly in industrial and logistics.
As a result, we expect a measurable uptick in volume in 2026 as investors lean into improved cost‑of‑capital visibility. Colliers forecasts that U.S. CRE transaction volume will grow 15–20% in 2026.
Industrial Will Continue to Dominate
Industrial demand is positioned to remain strong in 2026. As trade‑policy uncertainty eased in late 2025, many companies who had paused expansion or relocation decisions finally moved forward, bringing a wave of leasing activity that is carrying into the new year. E‑commerce also continues to be a powerful structural driver, underpinning robust leasing demand as retailers and logistics operators expand fulfillment capacity to meet consumer needs. At the same time, development pipelines have slowed, allowing the market to work through new supply. As a result, vacancy is expected to stabilize in 2026, reinforcing a fundamentally balanced environment for investors and occupiers alike.
Rising M&A Activity Will Drive New Sale‑Leaseback Opportunities
An anticipated rise in M&A activity will likely fuel an increase in sale‑leaseback opportunities in 2026. Private equity firms often use sale-leasebacks to reduce upfront equity requirements and enhance returns when acquiring a new business, especially in deals where real estate represents a meaningful share of the purchase price. On the post-acquisition side, sale-leasebacks can offer PE firms considerable financial flexibility, supporting reinvestment into the portfolio company’s business or even future follow-on acquisitions. Altogether, the anticipated surge in M&A is expected to expand the pipeline of high‑quality real estate coming to market, providing ample opportunity for sale-leaseback investors.
Final Thoughts
As 2026 unfolds, the U.S. net lease market is entering a period of renewed stability and opportunity. With transaction volumes rebounding, industrial demand holding firm and sale-leaseback activity accelerating alongside M&A trends, investors have multiple avenues to deploy capital strategically. Staying attuned to these drivers will be essential for navigating the year ahead.
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Will the Net Lease Market Thrive in 2025?
The net lease industry has faced significant challenges in recent years, grappling with widespread economic uncertainty, soaring inflation and elevated interest rates leading to muted growth. However, a turning point came in the second half of 2024, when the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates, ushering in lower cost debt and injecting some optimism into the market. While most industry experts believe net lease is poised for an upswing in 2025, the extent of the recovery remains in question. As the industry gears up to “thrive in ‘25”, here are three predictions for the year ahead. Transaction volume will likely increase, but uncertainty around interest rates will remain After three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve last year, real estate investors have gained more confidence in the market, signaling the beginning of a turnaround for transaction volume. Colliers latest outlook forecasts a 25-33% growth in aggregate volume in 2025, driven by a strong economy, improving fundamentals and growing demand for key asset classes. The bid-ask spread between buyers and sellers will also continue to narrow in 2025, supporting more robust investment activity. However, the predicted boost in transaction volume is largely tied to the future of interest rates which is uncertain. The timing and pace of further rate decisions will depend on many factors, including the impact of the incoming administration’s policies – mainly surrounding tariffs and immigration – on inflation. Net lease investors will explore new property types as technology and innovation drive trends Shifting economic factors and trends will also likely lead to a change in where net lease investors will look to allocate their capital. One of the fastest growing sectors over the past year has been data centers, which have seen a huge uptick in demand because of growing digital infrastructure needs and the advent of artificial intelligence. The average vacancy rate among primary North American data center markets in 2024 hit a record low of 2.8%, according to CBRE. The firm also forecasts the average preleasing rate for data centers to rise to 90% or more in 2025. Another sector to watch is healthcare, with an aging population, growing healthcare spending and new technologies supporting increased investor demand. In particular, medical outpatient buildings are well-positioned to benefit from these trends, in addition to shifting consumer preferences for accessing healthcare in more convenient locations. Industrial and retail will remain steady as positive tailwinds support demand Despite new sectors potentially drawing investor interest, the net lease sector will remain underpinned by two of its core property types – industrial and retail. Driven by e-commerce needs, warehouses and other industrial real estate properties are still in demand. In Q3 2024, industrial vacancy rates dipped slightly to 6.7%, according to Moody’s CRE. Furthermore, changes in trade policy will likely boost demand for industrial facilities near the U.S.-Mexico border – bolstering markets such as San Antonio, Austin and Dallas/Fort Worth. Retail enters the new year with the lowest vacancy rate of any commercial real estate sector and will remain steady throughout 2025. Demand for retail continues to be primarily driven by location – with assets in densely populated areas garnering the most investor interest. Increased consumer spending as a result of easing inflation will also be a positive tailwind for retail growth in 2025.
Is the Net Lease Industrial Market Still "Red Hot"?
The single-tenant net lease industrial market has been on fire in recent years. Buoyed by e-commerce growth, industrial properties were seeing record low cap rates and record high competition from investors following the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the sector has not been immune to recent macro-economic volatility. Search -In fact, quarterly transaction volume fell more than 46 percent in the first quarter of 2023, making it the slowest quarter reported by the net lease industrial sector since mid-2017. Does this mean that the industrial market is losing its steam? While some investors are waiting on the sidelines, trends including onshoring, supply/demand dynamics and rising interest in sale-leasebacks will help bolster the industrial market in the long term. Here’s why: Impact of onshoring Supply chain issues during the pandemic have been a major catalyst for onshoring in the industrial market. Having manufacturing facilities overseas meant accessibility was limited (or in some cases, completely restricted), which had a major impact on companies’ ability to get their product to consumers. As a result, more companies have focused on bringing their facilities back to the U.S., which has only been supported by lower labor-related costs, better automation technology and an accessible highway and interstate system. Technology companies have largely been leading the onshoring charge, with companies like Intel, Micron and Texas Instruments committing to building large manufacturing plants in the U.S. This has led to a steady rise in demand for warehouse and industrial spaces from U.S. companies, with notable growth seen in the Southeast. Supply/demand dynamics After several years of growth post-COVID, warehouse construction is on the decline due to higher interest rates, a slower economy and Amazon’s reduced spend on new facilities for 2023. 6,700 warehouses are expected to be built in 2023, a 35% reduction compared to the 10,000 built in 2022. Despite this, e-commerce growth is expected to keep demand for warehouse space strong, with rents anticipated to increase over the next year. The good news for investors is that cap rates are also on the rise – Search -up 35 basis points from record lows in 2022. As the buyer-seller price gap continues to close, more investors will likely jump back into the market, strengthening transaction volume in 2024. Uptick in sale-leaseback interest The volatility in the capital markets environment has certainly been challenging for companies, with cost of capital rising considerably given increasing interest rates. Alternative forms of financing such as sale-leasebacks have come to the forefront as companies look for ways to unlock capital. Sale-leasebacks offer a “naturally accretive” funding source, particularly for companies that own fungible, mission-critical real estate and are willing to sign a long-term lease. Industrial facilities have inherent criticality which makes them uniquely attractive to investors, making owners of these types of facilities great candidates for sale-leasebacks. While inflation is starting to cool, experts predict that the Fed won’t start cutting interest rates until 2024, which will encourage more industrial companies to pursue a sale-leaseback. With more opportunities likely coming to market and investors poised to execute (particularly all-equity buyers), we believe industrial will maintain its position as the “darling” of net lease for the foreseeable future.
What’s Next for Net Lease?
The effect of rising interest rates registers in many ways around the real estate world, but perhaps the starkest impact can be seen in the investment volume differential in one of CRE’s most popular sectors. Net lease investment volume decreased roughly 35% year over year in the third quarter, according to Jason Patterson of W. P. Carey. The VP of investments at one of the largest diversified net lease REITs notes the Fed’s impact on market players has been far-reaching. “Net lease volume prior to the Fed moves had been near or at record levels so the run-up in rates certainly impacted people getting on the same page with the value of real estate or what they were willing to commit to on a cap rate basis,” Patterson said. “A high level of volatility in a space where people are making long-term investments is not the ideal environment.” A Debt Market in Disarray Call it a pause, a disconnect, or total debt market disarray, 2022 has brought major headwinds to a CRE industry and net lease sector that have gotten accustomed to cheap capital. Yet, Patterson reports still seeing a lot of attractive opportunities in the market. “Private equity-backed sellers or tenants continue to use sale-leasebacks as an attractive form of unlocking tied-up capital in their acquisitions, a counter-inflationary move that in some cases has been beneficial to us,” he said. “They’re viewing it more and more as a regular, very attractive component of the capital stack, which I think is good from a broad industry perspective.” Unencumbered by rising capital costs, equity investors have certainly found more room to work within the net lease market “The current environment favors people in a high certainty or all-cash type of capital structure like W. P. Carey,” Patterson said. “We’ve seen increased focus on certainty of close as levered buyers signed up for deals maybe in the early part of the summer and then with rising debt costs their assumptions didn’t pan out. You see deals come back to market as more investors have to reevaluate pricing in this period of volatility.” 2023 Outlook Citing the first half 2022 industrial deal volume exceeding more than 50% of the STNL market, Patterson forecasts that industrial product will continue to be a very attractive investment target. He added though that not all industrial product types are created or viewed equally. “Rather than just lump everything into broad industrial, we’re looking for real estate that is extremely critical to operations for our tenants,” he said. “Maybe we’re willing to give up a little bit in terms of fungibility for increased certainty that tenants are going to renew and keep paying rent for the long term. Asset classes such as cold storage and food production are extremely important to users and they don’t have a ton of alternative options available.” A $75 million sale-leaseback W. P. Carey completed in the second quarter embodies the above trends. The 25-year net lease for six mission-critical specialty manufacturing facilities totaling approximately 1.1 million square feet in three countries is backed by private equity. “There continue to be more and more deals getting done with private equity sponsorship, and we’d expect that to largely continue in 2023,” Patterson said. “The trend, a positive one for the industry, really is private equity ownership looking toward sale-leasebacks.”