Commercial Real Estate
The Future of Net Lease Retail
Retail investors in 2025 face shifting market conditions, including tariff concerns, interest rate volatility, higher construction costs, and increased institutional competition. According to Michael Fitzgerald, executive director and head of US retail investments at W. P. Carey, these forces will continue to influence retail investments in the months ahead. “You have many factors pushing cap rates in different directions, with new entrants and fresh capital coming into the market,” says Fitzgerald. “That increased demand naturally drives rates down. But at the same time, rising 10-year interest rates and investors trying to protect their spread are pushing cap rates up. In the end, we’ve actually seen some stability since this time last year.” Still, in the current conditions, investors are reassessing how they evaluate risk, structure leases, and identify long-term value. Pressure Points Grow Rising construction and financing costs as well as the increasing cost of imported goods have become pressure points across the sector. According to Fitzgerald, those costs translate to higher rents, especially for new sale-leaseback deals. Even with those increases, Fitzgerald emphasizes that the need to ensure profitability still holds up at the store level. “We need to make sure the metrics still make sense,” he says. Additionally, inflation has made flat leases a tough sell for investors. “It’s fair to say the age of flat leases is over,” adds Fitzgerald. “Outside of grocery, there’s really not much appetite for retail leases with flat escalations.” Sale-leaseback Opportunities Remain Despite these headwinds, the retail sale-leaseback market has continued to see growth because the structure has basic advantages over other forms of financing. Sale-leasebacks offer long-term capital with no refinancing risk and typically without the restrictive debt covenants or balloon payments of traditional debt. As a result, companies that need capital and have a real estate footprint will continue to tap this form of financing despite overall higher cap rates. According to Fitzgerald, the best candidates for sale-leasebacks are growing retailers in healthy retail segments. This includes companies that provide discount non-discretionary products and services, convenience stores, service-based segments and fitness. How Disciplined Investors Move Forward When evaluating retail assets, Fitzgerald emphasizes the EBITDAR-to-rent ratio as a key metric. “It’s the single most important metric for understanding whether a retail location is a good long-term investment. Locations with a history of consistent profit will tend to stay open and can support a fair amount of rent.” Beyond that, Fitzgerald highlights that W. P. Carey also looks at the rent relative to market and the cost basis of the property relative to its construction cost or replacement cost. The corporate credit profile also plays a major role. Fitzgerald emphasizes he often looks for companies with strong credit, market leadership, conservative capitalization, solid management, a proven track record of success, and a conservative approach to growth. “W. P. Carey has a strong history of smart credit underwriting, and in some cases, our deep understanding of credit allows us to pursue investment ideas others will not.” Despite changing market conditions, Fitzgerald believes disciplined investors still have room to thrive. For instance, he points to W. P. Carey’s access to capital, as well as their overall balance sheet strength. “We are differentiated by our large balance sheet that allows us to make all-cash offers at large scale without any financing contingencies. This enables us to consistently offer certainty of close, which is often the most important factor sellers point to when choosing a sale-leaseback partner.”
Net Lease REITs Poised for Continued Growth
In a commercial real estate market where transaction activity remains subdued, net lease REITs have been busy deploying billions in capital and steadily growing their portfolios. Many companies in the sector have good liquidity and a desire to grow and are expected to actively pursue deals they view as attractive—despite ongoing market volatility. Net lease REITs are by nature an acquisitive group. They need to make accretive investments to grow their FFO per share, and the sector is coming off a robust year of deal-making with an especially active fourth quarter. Notable highlights include: Realty Income Corp. (NYSE: O) invested $3.9 billion last year, with $1.7 billion occurring in the fourth quarter. Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE: EPRT) invested $1.2 billion last year, which included $333.4 million in the fourth quarter W. P. Carey Inc. (NYSE: WPC) closed on $1.6 billion in acquisitions in 2024, including a record high of $840 million in the fourth quarter. Agree Realty Corp. (NYSE: ADC) invested $951 million in 2024, with $371 million in the fourth quarter. “One can make the argument, isn't the fourth quarter usually the biggest acquisition quarter in the year?” says Scott Merkle, managing director at SLB Capital Advisors, a real estate advisory firm specializing in sale-leasebacks. “That's usually accurate, and that probably played a role here. But more importantly, the net lease REITs coming into 2025 were trading at very attractive levels, so they had good currency with which to acquire properties.” Fourth quarter investment activity also accelerated along with signals that the Federal Reserve was moving into a rate-easing cycle, adds Jason Fox, president and CEO of W. P. Carey. “That flowed through to the 10-year Treasury and helped propel sellers who had largely been on the sidelines for much of 2024 into action, with bid-ask spreads between buyers and sellers coming in meaningfully,” he says. Appetite for Growth Despite market volatility fueled by President Trump’s proposed tariff policy, net lease REITs are maintaining cautious optimism for more growth ahead with guidance, thus far, that is similar to 2024. “The appetite to do deals and deploy capital is still there. We're seeing it every day in the transactions that we're working on with REITs that are actively offering on sale-leasebacks,” Merkle says. Net lease REITs are buying existing net lease properties and also investing in sale-leasebacks, both on a one-off and portfolio basis. However, all buyers are being a bit more cautious right now given uncertainty surrounding the impact from tariffs on consumer spending, supply chains, and the global economy. “The biggest headwind to the sector is volatility,” says Spenser Glimcher, managing director, self-storage & net lease, at Green Street. “It's one thing if the economy is slowing, but it's the uncertainty of the swings in markets week-to-week or day-to-day,” she adds. Companies are navigating in a market where there is less certainty around the ability to deploy capital and execute on acquisition opportunities. Will deals take longer to get done? And will buyers and sellers try to renegotiate different pricing or cap rates? “The volatility in the market, if anything, has made it even more important in terms of having balance sheets and liquidity because there is a certain amount of acquisition expectation that's built into this sector every year,” says Haendel St. Juste, managing director and senior REIT analyst at Mizuho Americas. Net lease REITs rely on acquisitions because it is not an internal high-growth sub-sector. Historically, more than two-thirds of growth in the sector has come from acquisitions, he notes. Tapping Equity Markets Historically, net lease REITs have funded acquisitions with roughly 50-50 equity and debt, and they’re often tapping equity via ATMs as well as traditional equity issuance. For example, EPRT has pre-funded its growth for the coming year thanks to an upsized stock offering in March that raised $254.2 million. “Because these companies are serial acquirers, the sub-sector requires lots more fresh equity every year,” St. Juste says. “Their stock price and cost of capital matters because they’re spread investing, and that’s why you see their balance sheets a little bit more liquid.” Investors often gravitate to net lease REIT stocks during cyclical downturns and volatility because of the bond-like characteristics of the sector. And the defensive nature of the sector has garnered attention this year as investors have looked for a safe spot to place capital. Net lease REITs have diversified tenancy with long-term leases that also have embedded rent bumps. Balance sheets are typically liquid and low-levered, and investors also like the steady dividend yield they deliver. “From a positioning perspective, we've seen a number of investors that have built their portfolios a bit more towards long-duration sectors in the last couple of months. If you look at what's worked year to date, it's been health care, towers, gaming, and triple net,” St. Juste says. Varied Approach to Acquisitions Although the desire to grow is there, the capacity for growth within the sector is a mixed bag. Most net lease REITs like to invest on a leverage-neutral basis and tend to be conservative allocators of capital. “If you're not trading in a premium–5% or greater to your NAV–you're kind of in the cost of capital penalty box because you're not able to go out and issue equity to grow,” Glimcher says. Triple net REITs without the need to raise any additional capital to reach, and potentially exceed, acquisition targets should be net winners, according to St. Juste. W. P. Carey is among the net lease REITs sitting in a strong capital position. “We've talked this year about having a clear path to fund our investments in 2025 without the need to raise any equity,” Fox says. The REIT plans to fund acquisitions with the sale of non-core operating assets, primarily dispositions of its legacy self-storage properties. The REIT also has a $2 billion credit facility that’s largely undrawn. W. P. Carey started 2025 with guidance for acquisitions in a range between $1 billion and $1.5 billion. “I've characterized that as appropriately conservative given the market uncertainty,” Fox says. The REIT has completed about $449 million in investments through April, primarily involving single-tenant industrial assets. The biggest and obvious headwind is the uncertainty in the world right now, where interest rates are going, where tariffs are going to land, and how that’s all going to flow through to inflation. “This uncertainty tends to chill transaction markets, and we'll probably see some of that, especially from portfolio sellers who may not be as motivated to be in the market right now,” Fox notes. However, some of those same challenges also could provide tailwinds by creating buying opportunities and perhaps motivate sellers to pursue a sale-leaseback to raise capital for their business. “We've done some of our best deals over the years during times of significant uncertainty or when there's capital markets dislocation,” he adds. Searching for Buying Opportunities Finding buying opportunities could be a near-term challenge with uncertainty that may keep sellers on the sidelines. The M&A market is typically a big source of investment opportunities for REITs as sale-leasebacks are often used as a financing tool. However, the pipeline for M&A deals has been relatively quiet this year, given the uncertainty and volatility in capital markets that make pricing more challenging. REITs also are seeing increased competition from private equity groups. According to SLB Capital Advisors, there were three large sale-leaseback deals announced in first quarter by SouthState Bank, AT&T and REI totaling more than $1.5 billion, and all three of those deals went to private equity buyers. “We hear from all the buyers we talk to that there is a shortage of quality sale-leasebacks out there, so there’s probably not as much acquisition volume as they would like, but REITs are actively pursuing those deals that they view as being attractive,” Merkle says. REITs also are well-positioned to win deals when they choose to do so, he says. “They're not stretching; they're not overpaying; but when they like an acquisition they're going after it and putting forth attractive, compelling offers,” he adds. Despite an appetite for growth, net lease REITs are keeping a close eye on their capital costs, potential credit risk and slowing economic growth. “I think the sub-sector is a net winner here, and acquisitions will be part of the story,” St. Juste says. “But we'll probably hear of deals taking a little bit longer, and in some cases, maybe a bit more competition from new private equity sources in the space.”
Net Lease Investors Adapt as Economic Uncertainty Lingers
Tariffs, interest rate fluctuations and macroeconomic uncertainties continue to reshape the net lease investment market. As these factors evolve, investors are working to make long-term decisions in an uncertain environment. “There’s a lot of volatility, especially around tariffs and trade policy,” says Jason Patterson, executive director of investments at W. P. Carey. “It’s difficult for a CFO or CEO to commit to a 20-year lease when so many of these factors are changing day to day.” This unpredictability has tempered deal volume, but as conditions stabilize, Patterson expects a resurgence in activity later in the year. The Impact of Interest Rate Volatility Interest rates have been a focal point for investors, particularly given their impact on pricing and transaction volumes. While rates have been trending downward recently, the past year has seen continued fluctuations, making it challenging for buyers and sellers to align on pricing expectations. “Investors really track the 10-year US Treasury as a guidepost for risk and pricing,” Patterson says. “The volatility we’ve seen has widened the bid-ask gap in many cases, making it harder for deals to come together.” He notes that as interest rates stabilize, market conditions should improve, leading to increased deal flow. Sale-Leasebacks Still Attractive Alternative to Unlocking Capital Uncertain economic conditions often prompt corporate real estate owners to explore sale-leaseback transactions as a means of unlocking capital. While Patterson hasn’t seen a major uptick yet, he expects that to change as 2025 progresses. “There are early signs of increased sale-leaseback activity,” Patterson says. “While we haven’t seen a huge spike just yet, M&A activity has been improving, and sale-leaseback volume often follows that trend.” He also notes that while uncertainty can sometimes deter companies from making long-term commitments, it can also push them toward alternative capital options, such as sale-leasebacks, to improve liquidity. Preparing for What’s Next With so much uncertainty, investors are focusing on proactive strategies to reduce risk and position themselves for long-term success. According to Patterson, much of this work happens upfront, from structuring leases with protective provisions to ensuring asset selection aligns with long-term needs. “The good thing about net leases is that once you’ve bought a building and signed a lease, there’s an expectation of long-term stability and predictability,” he explains. “The key is making sure those early decisions — such as lease structuring and tenant selection — are as strong as possible.” Active asset management also plays an important role. Maintaining strong relationships with tenants, tracking performance and being flexible with their needs can help investors handle potential challenges in the future. While economic uncertainty continues to persist, investors who remain disciplined and adaptable will be well positioned for success, and Patterson remains optimistic about the net lease market in the months ahead. “I don’t see an impending cliff or major downturn,” he says. “The best approach is to stay informed, track policy changes and make smart, forward-looking decisions.”
MIPIM 2025: Is the European Real Estate Market on the Rise?
The annual real estate gathering in Cannes, MIPIM 2025, is set to kick off next week. As in previous years, more than 20,000 delegates will gather to discuss both the opportunities and challenges facing the European real estate industry. While concerns about the market remain—including geopolitical tensions, inflation and future monetary policy decisions—investors have entered the year with a sense of cautious optimism. As real estate professionals gear up for an insightful conference, here are the key questions they will be looking to address. Will the European deal environment improve in 2025? 2024 was a year of transition for the real estate industry, with inflation gradually aligning with target levels and interest rates reaching their peak. In the latter half of the year, central banks began to lower interest rates, albeit slower—and in smaller increments—than some expected. Despite analysts projecting only modest European economic growth in 2025, the real estate investment market stands poised for a gradual recovery. Market participants have largely come to the realization that rates will remain higher for longer, bringing some stability to transaction markets. This has further narrowed the bid-ask spread as buyers and sellers align on pricing. Furthermore, lower cost of capital will be accretive to returns for some investors and support increased investment volumes. As a result, we expect more robust investment activity in 2025. What’s the outlook for the European sale-leaseback market? Even with interest rates declining, sale-leasebacks will continue to be an attractive solution for companies looking to boost cash flow. First and foremost, a sale-leaseback frees up capital tied up in illiquid real estate, allowing for greater financial resilience and flexibility without disrupting operations. Companies that pursue a sale-leaseback also benefit from predictable rental payments, making these deals a lower-risk alternative to volatile investments like the bond market. This combination of predictability and adaptability make sale-leasebacks a practical capital solution for companies with real estate assets. In addition, analysts expect the M&A market to rebound in 2025 as sponsor activity increases, regulatory and monetary dynamics normalize, and corporates continue to streamline and simplify their portfolios. When M&A activity increases, there is often an uptick in sale-leaseback opportunities, as private equity firms look to leverage sale-leaseback financing as part of the capital stack for new acquisitions or to support portfolio company growth. How will ESG reporting requirements impact the European real estate market? Sustainability is no longer “just a buzzword” in European real estate strategies. Investor demands, tenant preferences and regulatory requirements are driving companies to prioritize energy efficiency and carbon reduction. With the EU setting ambitious targets for carbon neutrality, businesses that own real estate must find ways to fund necessary upgrades. What some may not realize is that sale-leasebacks offer a great solution, allowing companies to unlock the value of owned real estate to finance energy efficiency upgrades, solar installations and other sustainability-driven improvements. This not only ensures compliance with evolving regulations but also helps reduce their carbon footprint—all while maintaining full operational control of their facility.
The Ins and Outs of Build-to-Suits
What is a build-to-suit? A build-to-suit is a real estate solution where a company secures a custom-built facility without the upfront capital investment. In a build-to-suit, a developer or investor funds and manages the construction of a new facility or expansion of an existing one to meet the specifications of a prospective or existing tenant. Upon completion, the company enters into a long-term lease, similar to a sale-leaseback. For companies in need of a new, purpose-built facility, a build-to-suit is an efficient and capital-saving alternative to buying or retrofitting an existing building. What are the key benefits of a build-to-suit? Custom-built facility in the company’s preferred location No upfront capital required, enabling the company to preserve capital for business growth Operational control of the facility post construction Potential for future expansions, renovations or energy retrofits through an investor partnership Who should consider a build-to-suit? Build-to-suits are best suited for companies that: Have specialized layouts, equipment or other design requirements Prefer a new property instead of retrofitting an older building Want to preserve capital rather than tie up funds in real estate development Can commit to a long-term lease (typically 10-30 years) How does the build-to-suit process work? Companies can pursue a build-to-suit through three main approaches: Developer-led build-to-suit: Based on the building specifications, a tenant will hire a commercial developer. The developer will take on the responsibilities (and risk) of land acquisition and building construction. Often, they will work with an investor, like W. P. Carey, as a capital partner to either finance the construction or acquire the building upon completion. The tenant will then lease the property, typically on a long-term basis, from the owner. Reverse build-to-suit / sale-leaseback: In this scenario, the tenant takes on the initial responsibilities of land acquisition, financing and hiring a general contractor for construction. Upon completion, an investor like W. P. Carey acquires the building. This allows the tenant to recoup the acquisition cost and reinvest that capital into their business. Investor-led build-to-suit: With this option, a tenant can bypass the developer and work directly with an investor like W. P. Carey that offers in-house project management services. The investor would work hand-in-hand with the tenant on site selection, land acquisition, design and construction, delivering a building that meets the tenant’s unique needs with no upfront capital required. The investor would own the building and lease it to the tenant on a long-term basis upon completion. How long does a build-to-suit take? Build-to-suits can take anywhere from 12-36 months depending on the size, location, permitting and other specifications. Rent payments typically do not begin until the building is substantially complete and operational. The lease term of a build-to-suit property is also usually longer than those of a typical commercial lease, ranging anywhere from 10-30 years. Conclusion: Is a build-to-suit right for your business? While build-to-suits may seem intimidating for companies who have never pursued one, they are a great solution for custom-built real estate with little to no upfront capital involved. W. P. Carey has extensive experience working with tenants and developers to structure customized build-to-suit financing programs that meet their specific needs – whether it be traditional construction funding, financing upon completion or a full scope of in-house project management services. Considering a custom-built property for your company? Reach out to our team today!
Will the Net Lease Market Thrive in 2025?
The net lease industry has faced significant challenges in recent years, grappling with widespread economic uncertainty, soaring inflation and elevated interest rates leading to muted growth. However, a turning point came in the second half of 2024, when the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates, ushering in lower cost debt and injecting some optimism into the market. While most industry experts believe net lease is poised for an upswing in 2025, the extent of the recovery remains in question. As the industry gears up to “thrive in ‘25”, here are three predictions for the year ahead. Transaction volume will likely increase, but uncertainty around interest rates will remain After three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve last year, real estate investors have gained more confidence in the market, signaling the beginning of a turnaround for transaction volume. Colliers latest outlook forecasts a 25-33% growth in aggregate volume in 2025, driven by a strong economy, improving fundamentals and growing demand for key asset classes. The bid-ask spread between buyers and sellers will also continue to narrow in 2025, supporting more robust investment activity. However, the predicted boost in transaction volume is largely tied to the future of interest rates which is uncertain. The timing and pace of further rate decisions will depend on many factors, including the impact of the incoming administration’s policies – mainly surrounding tariffs and immigration – on inflation. Net lease investors will explore new property types as technology and innovation drive trends Shifting economic factors and trends will also likely lead to a change in where net lease investors will look to allocate their capital. One of the fastest growing sectors over the past year has been data centers, which have seen a huge uptick in demand because of growing digital infrastructure needs and the advent of artificial intelligence. The average vacancy rate among primary North American data center markets in 2024 hit a record low of 2.8%, according to CBRE. The firm also forecasts the average preleasing rate for data centers to rise to 90% or more in 2025. Another sector to watch is healthcare, with an aging population, growing healthcare spending and new technologies supporting increased investor demand. In particular, medical outpatient buildings are well-positioned to benefit from these trends, in addition to shifting consumer preferences for accessing healthcare in more convenient locations. Industrial and retail will remain steady as positive tailwinds support demand Despite new sectors potentially drawing investor interest, the net lease sector will remain underpinned by two of its core property types – industrial and retail. Driven by e-commerce needs, warehouses and other industrial real estate properties are still in demand. In Q3 2024, industrial vacancy rates dipped slightly to 6.7%, according to Moody’s CRE. Furthermore, changes in trade policy will likely boost demand for industrial facilities near the U.S.-Mexico border – bolstering markets such as San Antonio, Austin and Dallas/Fort Worth. Retail enters the new year with the lowest vacancy rate of any commercial real estate sector and will remain steady throughout 2025. Demand for retail continues to be primarily driven by location – with assets in densely populated areas garnering the most investor interest. Increased consumer spending as a result of easing inflation will also be a positive tailwind for retail growth in 2025.
Lease Accounting 101
Classifying leases as finance or operating is fundamental to how companies manage leased assets and report them under today’s U.S. GAAP standards. Regardless of whether a company is entering into a traditional lease or a sale-leaseback, understanding the distinctions is essential for accurate financial reporting and decision-making. What is a finance lease? Leases are classified as ‘finance’ when they have characteristics that make them similar to financing the purchase of the underlying asset. To qualify as a finance lease, one or more of the following criteria must be met: Transfer of Ownership: Ownership transfers to the lessee at the end of the lease Lease Purchase Option: The lessee has an option to buy the asset (and likely will) Lease Term: The lease term represents most of the asset’s remaining economic life (typically 75% or more) Present Value: The present value of the lease payments (and any residual value guarantee) is equal to or exceeds substantially all of the asset’s fair market value (typically 90% or more) Under a finance lease, the lessee is deemed to have control over the asset. As such, finance leases are accounted for as if the lessee has ownership of the asset. Accordingly, the lessee recognizes the rent expense as a bifurcated expense between interest expense and depreciation on the income statement as well as a right-of-use asset and lease liability on the balance sheet. Given the nature of the arrangement, finance leases require careful consideration due to the impact on said financial statements. What is an operating lease? An operating lease is much more like a typical lease arrangement, where the lessor permits the lessee to utilize an asset for a set period of time. Under older accounting standards, these assets and related liabilities were not recorded on balance sheet, but that changed in 2016 with ASC 842, in which lessees are now required to bring operating leases on their balance sheet. Leases are categorized as operating if none of the four criteria for finance leases listed above are met. With an operating lease, ownership is not transferred at the end of the lease period. This carries with it the risk that when the lease term ends, a company may be asked to leave or offered unfavorable terms to renew the lease. However, this could also be a plus if the company is looking to move locations. On financial statements, operating leases are accounted for as a right-of-use asset and a lease liability, with all rent expense being recorded as an operating cost. Special considerations for sale-leasebacks Sale-leasebacks have an added layer to consider. For the transaction to qualify as a true sale under ASC 842, the sale-leaseback must be classified as an operating lease. If it is classified as a finance lease for any of the reasons above, it is treated as a ‘failed sale.’ When the sale fails, the seller/lessee: Does not derecognize the asset on its balance sheet and instead records the proceeds as a loan Pays down the loan through lease payments, which are split into principal and interest expense. The interest rate is based on the seller’s incremental borrowing rate W. P. Carey can help Understanding the differences between finance and operating leases is crucial for businesses, especially those considering a sale-leaseback. With both lease types now displayed on balance sheet, it’s important for companies to understand the nuances of each so they can best adhere to accounting standards and make well-informed decisions about their lease agreements. For a deeper breakdown into lease accounting, take a look at Lease Accounting: IFRS vs. US GAAP. In this article, we explore the key differences in lease classification, measurement and presentation under IFRS 16 and ASC 842 and go into more detail on the implications of failed sale accounting for buyers and sellers. W. P. Carey has more than 50 years of experience executing sale-leasebacks and helping companies structure customized leases that make the most sense for their business. While W. P. Carey can help, lessees should consult their accounting professional to address their specific needs.
What’s Next for Commercial Real Estate?
After several challenging years contending with the impacts of a global pandemic, the commercial real estate market finally seems to be healing. As noted in the latest Emerging Trends in Real Estate report from PwC and the Urban Land Institute, the Fed's 50-basis-point cut in September and subsequent 25-basis-point cut in November have generated some optimism in the CRE community that we are entering a new expansionary phase in the real estate cycle. Here are four of the top emerging trends taking shape as a result. 1. Interest Rates and Capital Cost Concerns Have Eased, but Still Remain In the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, the Fed attempted to revive the economy by lowering the federal funds rate to near zero. What followed was nearly a decade in which cheap debt became a way of life. However, starting in the spring of 2022, with inflation surging, the federal funds rate was increased 11 times, pushing the rate from zero to over 5 percent, bringing real estate investment activity to a near standstill. Reflecting on the market today, interest rates and cost of capital remain among the top concerns of respondents to the PwC Emerging Trends in Real Estate survey, but those concerns have eased since last year. While respondents largely agree that the rate cuts so far are not enough to alter deal economics fundamentally, the monetary policy movements have still injected optimism into the market. In addition, more than 80% believe that commercial mortgage rates will decrease in 2025, with 75% believing those rates will continue to decrease over the next five years. As an industry that relies heavily on leverage to get deals done, signs of lower-costing debt bode well for the future and will support more robust deal volume. That said, the Fed’s future decisions on rate cuts will depend on how inflation and the overall economic outlook evolve. 2. Acquisitions, Refinancing and Development Markets Improving The acquisitions, refinancing and development markets are slowly starting to heal, the Emerging Trends report noted, pointing to steady improvement in liquidity and more bids in the market, as well as tighter prices and debt spreads. Industry participants are also optimistic about debt conditions ahead, with lending expected to grow by 24% in 2025, indicating a full recovery to pre-pandemic levels and further signaling that normalization and stability are on the horizon. Another key factor market participants are looking at is the stabilization of recent real estate price declines. Cap rates began rising when prices peaked in mid-2022 and continued increasing until plateauing in early 2024. The most recent figures suggest prices might be turning positive again, although this may simply reflect that higher-quality real estate is accounting for a larger share of transactions. 3. Occupied Space Now Exceeds Pre-Pandemic Levels in Most Sectors The pandemic created significant changes in how tenants use space, and where. There are fewer office workers commuting to the workplace, more consumers shopping online and more goods being stored in warehouses. However, despite these changes, overall demand for space has more than recovered from the pandemic and remains robust across most property types, with the exception of office. When looking at the future of the retail market, survey respondents indicated that location is key. While newness is a significant priority for some property types like office, retail spaces tend to derive much of their value and demand based on their location. Frequently, older retail centers command the best locations, preventing newer entrants from gaining a foothold and making them more attractive to investors. In the industrial sector, net absorption has been positive, meaning more space is occupied than ever before. Yet demand has not kept pace with new supply, leading to an increase in vacant space. This has given more negotiating power to tenants, who are increasingly seeking spaces with more modern features such as high energy efficiency, LED lighting and higher clear heights. However, this “flight to quality” trend should abate slightly as the pipeline for new product slows and the supply/demand dynamics balance out. 4. There Is Less Movement Due to the High Costs of Relocation The pandemic not only created a shift in the demand for commercial property, but also shifted where people want to live and work. After years of increasing interstate migration, many areas are experiencing slower population growth or even outright population losses due to soaring home prices, fewer renters having the ability to transition to home ownership, and fewer households relocating for new jobs. The report notes that climate change is also becoming a greater factor in location decisions. The report points to a Freddie Mac analysis that shows natural disaster concerns have prompted one in seven households to consider other places to live. Many commercial properties are also at risk of damage from natural disasters and commercial property owners are facing increasing insurance premiums as a result. Conclusion As the real estate market transitions into a new cycle in 2025, we remain cautiously optimistic for the future. With change comes opportunity, and we’re excited to see how the landscape evolves as we enter a phase of recovery and renewal. With more than 50 years of experience operating in all market cycles, we’re well positioned to continue helping companies unlock otherwise illiquid capital from their real estate assets. If you're interested in learning more, contact us today.
Corporate Capital Outlook - Q3 2024
Written by Colliers Corporate Capital Solutions, the report details the current state of the global economy and how that’s impacting the net lease sector. The report also features contributed content from Christopher Mertlitz, Head of European Investments at W. P. Carey, on what to expect as we enter a new real estate cycle and the outlook for sale-leasebacks.