Countdown to ICSC Las Vegas
Unveiling the biggest trends and opportunities within the retail sector
ICSC Las Vegas, one of the largest tradeshows for the retail industry, is on the horizon with an expected 30,000 attendees eager to network and reconnect face-to-face with industry leaders and peers. After a somewhat sluggish 2023, attendees will be looking to the conference to shed some light on the retail landscape and offer insights on new trends and opportunities within the sector. Consumer spending, retail vacancies and sale-leaseback activity will be among the most pressing topics discussed at the show. Here's an overview of each:
Consumer spending remains steady
Despite inflationary concerns, consumer spending has remained steady over the past year, as core retail sales, excluding gasoline, food service and auto vehicle purchases, increased by 3.3% at the end of 2023. As a result, demand for retail space has remained strong and the market is starting to see in uptick in new developer-built retail locations coming online. W. P. Carey has completed several deals that align with this trend – for example, the acquisition of 22 recently built and to-be-completed car wash facilities across the U.S., leased to Tidal Wave Auto Spa, a prominent car wash operator. With interest rates projected to decrease in late 2024, the market will likely continue to see a ramp up in new development over the coming months.
Retail vacancies at record lows
Strong demand for retail space has resulted in record-low vacancy rates, with total retail vacancy reaching 4.2% at the end of 2023. Low vacancy rates are a positive sign for investors like W. P. Carey as it provides greater confidence in long-term leases and the ability to re-lease vacant buildings if the need arises. However, it also means more competition for less space which is pushing retail rents significantly higher. This makes it more expensive for retailers looking to expand and acquire new space, which in turn increases operational costs.
Sale-leaseback activity picks up
With rents rising significantly, retailers – particularly those looking to grow their real estate footprints – will be seeking new ways to access capital. This will likely contribute to greater demand for sale-leasebacks, where a retailer sells its real estate to an investor (like W. P. Carey) for cash and simultaneously enters into a long-term lease. This is a valuable business decision for most retail companies because owning real estate can serve as a drag on their balance sheet. By unlocking the value of their real estate through a sale-leaseback, retailers can reinvest proceeds into their core competencies, leading to better overall returns and long-term growth.
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Retail Revitalization: Key Takeaways from ICSC Las Vegas
After a two-year hiatus, ICSC Las Vegas – one of the largest conventions for the retail industry – made its big comeback with over 22,000 attendees getting together to discuss the opportunities and trends in the sector. Retailers, brokers and real estate investors were among the exhibitors on the conference floor, where a number of topics dominated the discussion. Rising rates and inflation, the retail recovery and resurgence of brick-and-mortar were among the biggest themes at the conference. Here’s an overview of each: Financing amid rising interest rates and inflation Inflation continues to rise at its fastest pace in 40 years, with the consumer price index reaching 8.6% for the 12 months ending in May. Interest rates have also been surging, with the Fed raising benchmark rates in its most aggressive hike since 1994. This challenging and volatile economic environment has made it difficult for retailers to secure traditional debt financing at attractive rates. However, one method of financing that has been gaining traction in the retail sector is the sale-leaseback – where a company sells its real estate to an investor for cash and simultaneously enters into a long-term lease. Big names such as 7-Eleven, Sherwin Williams and Mister Car Wash have made sale-leasebacks a core part of their growth strategies due to the ability to quickly unlock otherwise illiquid capital and reinvest those proceeds into their business. Retailers can also lock in a long-term rental rate which is especially advantageous in the current economic landscape while not having to worry about short-term refinancing or restrictive debt covenants. Retail revival Despite the challenging market environment, there was a lot of optimism for the retail sector at ICSC Las Vegas. Virtually all retail property types from grocery to c-stores experienced an increase in leasing activity over the past year – with retail tenants absorbing 91 million square feet of space nationally over the past 12 months. Furthermore, the retail sector is now seeing the lowest levels of bankruptcy filings in the past five years in addition to a steady uptick in foot traffic in physical stores. This is indicative of a larger retail recovery, leaving the sector in its best position since the pandemic began. Resurgence of brick-and-mortar Perhaps the biggest topic of discussion at the conference was the resurgence of brick-and-mortar retail. While many had predicted that e-commerce would be the way of the future, consumers have proved them wrong by returning to physical stores en masse. In 2021, retail sales totaled $5 trillion – with only about 13% of that stemming from e-commerce. Online shopping actually decreased year-over-year, demonstrating that consumers were eager to return to physical stores as the pandemic subsided. This increased demand also spurred many existing retailers to expand their store footprints and some online-only retailers to open physical stores. However, not all segments within retail are created equal, with some property types like movie theaters continuing to struggle while others like restaurants have thrived. Regardless, retailers have continued to adapt to meet the evolving demands of consumers, with omnichannel – a combination of e-commerce and brick-and-mortar – emerging as the prevailing strategy for success. Conclusion Despite a challenging few years for the retail sector, fundamentals continue to improve in 2022 as demand for high-quality retail assets returns and retailers look to cash in on owned real estate to improve balance sheet health and fund future growth. Interest rates, inflation and a rumored recession lingered in the air at this year's ICSC Las Vegas, but attendees were confident that the retail revival is underway.
Navigating a Rapidly Changing Retail Industry
Over 20,000 real estate investors, developers, property managers, retailers and brokers convened in Las Vegas last month for the annual ICSC convention. In the midst of a volatile market, attendees sought answers on how to navigate current challenges impacting the retail industry. Below were three of the biggest themes to emerge. Retail resiliency amid market headwinds Just a few years ago, the outlook for the retail industry was grim. Consumers weren’t shopping due to the pandemic, brick-and-mortar stores were closing and many large retailers were filing for bankruptcy. However, the market surprisingly bounced back post-covid as consumers returned to stores with a desire to spend. As the real estate industry as a whole now contends with new challenges including higher interest rates and economic uncertainty, the silver lining is that retail has been somewhat less impacted than other asset classes. Office continues to face return-to-work challenges and industrial is contending with supply chain bottlenecks and overall supply shortages. While retail has not been entirely insulated, the fundamentals have remained quite sound – leasing remains strong, occupancy is high and companies are continuing to announce new store openings. The consensus at ICSC was that there are certainly challenges ahead, but that the retail industry is well positioned to weather the storm and come out in a position of strength. Trend toward mixed-use retail One of the biggest challenges in today’s retail environment is adapting to the growing and changing needs of the everyday consumer. As a result, landlords, retail owners and developers are increasingly exploring mixed-use developments – which blend multiple uses such as retail, residential and entertainment. For instance, a landlord may decide to redevelop an existing retail center by incorporating entertainment facilities, residential apartments and hotel amenities that attract consumers while also helping drive sales and boost profits. Landlords are also embracing a more experiential approach to retail centers by incorporating movie theaters, fitness centers, spas and other lifestyle attractions. Particularly now when ground-up retail development is not the most attractive given the current market, converting existing retail centers into mixed-use sites is a unique way for landlords to maximize value and grab consumer attention. Sale-leasebacks as a solution for rising development costs Rising interest rates continue to impact retail development. Developers’ capital costs have increased drastically, and as a result they are demanding higher asking rents from retailers. This is forcing more retailers to turn toward in-house development, which means the development costs are held on the balance sheet of the company. To offset these costs, retailers are exploring sale-leasebacks – where a company sells its real estate to an investor for cash and simultaneously enters into a long-term lease. This enables the retailer to receive a significant cash infusion while maintaining full operational control of the property. Developers can also take advantage of the sale-leaseback model. If they’re developing a building in which a tenant has already been secured, developers can work with an investor on a forward commitment in which the investor funds construction costs and acquires the building upon completion, or the investor purchases the building once complete. This enables the developer to recoup costs while still collecting a development fee. With an interest rate decrease not likely for 2023, sale-leasebacks are expected to continue growing in popularity for retailers looking to expand their footprints and developers, providing opportunity for investors that specialize in these types of transactions (like W. P. Carey!).
Retail's Latest Transformation Has Investors Watching
Retail has been the commercial real estate chameleon, changing and adapting with the times, including the rise of e-commerce and COVID-19. The post-pandemic rebirth of the sector has made major headlines and many retail operators and owners see flying colors. Michael Fitzgerald, executive director and head of US retail investments at W. P. Carey, sees three major trends that sector stakeholders should be watching: the strength of needs-based retail, a development switch favoring sale-leaseback investors and the continued recalibration of buyer-seller expectations. Targets & Tactics “An interesting thing about COVID was how resilient certain areas of retail actually were,” said Fitzgerald. “We saw immediate and sustained growth after that short period of shutdowns.” Non-discretionary, core-good retail including grocery stores and services-based tenants, such as auto services, have been “very strong,” according to Fitzgerald. Low-cost discount stores are a good place to do deals given the economic worries. And family entertainment centers, such as arcades and bowling alleys with full-service restaurants, have seen sustained periods of same-store sales growth and high profitability, benefitting from the post-COVID pent-up consumer demand. “When you’re very flexible, have tons of ability to evaluate business models, take a partnership approach and meet with management teams to understand how they position themselves in the market, you’ll have a lot of good investment options,” said Fitzgerald, who prefers master leases of 15- to 25-year term with escalations every five years. “We can do anything from convenience stores to an automotive service business to grocery and sporting goods. We’re pretty agnostic as to the types of retail we pursue.” Rate Responses As the impact of rising interest rates continues to unfold, Fitzgerald has found that most tenants and retailers are somewhat hesitant to raise their prices so as not to alienate or even “destroy” their customer base. There’s an opportunity to boost profitability, but also a concern about the outcome if companies go down that path and then the economic “switch flips” and customers stop spending. Increased interest rates affect retail development negatively, but Fitzgerald believes a specific shift in that regard that could yield investment opportunity. Retailers planning to grow their footprint have traditionally partnered with merchant developers, but with higher capital costs the latter’s return requirements “have increased significantly” and, in turn, their hiked asking rents have forced retailers to look for alternatives. As a result, retailers are doing more of their own development, whether in-house or through fee developers. “So a lot of these developments will be held on the balance sheet of retail companies, which is good because a lot of companies will likely decide to do sale-leasebacks,” he said. “Given that’s our company’s prime target, we think that’s a good trend to come from the higher rates.” Outlook Fitzgerald maintains that it’s still too early to make a prediction for overall transaction volume in the retail sector in 2023, adding that since last fall cap rate expectations have gone up 45 to 50 basis points in many cases. “What we’re seeing is that retailers that need to grow their footprint and monetize new developments are going to meet the market and are going to do deals,” he said. “If retailers continue to meet the market I think it’ll be a good, active year. If there’s a standoff I think it’s going to be more difficult.”