Logistics
The Outlook for Industrial
The industrial real estate sector continues to stand out as a resilient and adaptive asset class, even amid economic uncertainty and shifting global dynamics. As we move through 2025, several dominant trends are shaping the trajectory of the market—from a fundamental shift in global supply chains to rising sustainability expectations, technological advancements and recalibration of capital strategies. Here’s a look at what’s driving the market: Onshoring and Supply Chain Reconfiguration The reshoring of manufacturing and logistics operations is no longer a speculative trend—it’s a structural shift. Spurred by pandemic-era supply chain disruptions and ongoing tariff concerns, companies are doubling down on operational resilience. This has led to a surge in demand for modern industrial space in inland and secondary markets, particularly near major highway corridors and intermodal hubs. This shift is putting pressure on developers to deliver new inventory quickly, even as construction costs and permitting timelines remain elevated. In particular, industrial locations in non-coastal metros are seeing increased activity as firms diversify away from traditional port-adjacent markets. Demand for Sustainable Real Estate Sustainability is no longer a “nice to have”—it’s a core tenant demand. Industrial occupiers are increasingly seeking energy-efficient, environmentally responsible facilities that align with their business goals and lower operational costs. This includes buildings equipped with solar-ready rooftops, LED lighting, EV charging infrastructure and LEED certifications. The push for greener buildings is also being driven by investors, who are factoring sustainability into underwriting and long-term asset value. Sustainable assets typically observe higher value in the market and are likely to lease up faster. Advancements in Technology From AI-enabled automation to smart building systems and robotics, technology is revolutionizing industrial and warehouse properties. In fact, more than a quarter of U.S. warehouse inventory is expected to be automated by 2027. Industrial occupiers leverage automation to create a more efficient process for moving products through their facilities, speeding up order fulfillment and improving inventory management. Properties equipped with automation and robust digital infrastructure are also typically viewed as “future proof,” making them more attractive to investors over the long term. Capital Markets and the Rise of Sale-Leasebacks Tariff concerns, economic volatility and tightened liquidity are prompting many corporate occupiers to turn toward alternative sources of capital, such as sale-leasebacks. This trend is especially pronounced in the industrial sector due to the strong investment profiles of these assets. The primary benefit of a sale-leaseback is the ability to immediately convert an illiquid real estate asset into liquid capital to meet both short- and long-term needs. Sale-leasebacks can also help boost a company’s balance sheet by putting them in a better cash position and improving their debt-to-equity ratio, enabling them to secure more attractive debt financing in the future should they need it. The Future is Bright Despite short-term headwinds such as tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainty, the industrial real estate market in 2025 is defined by transformation and opportunity. Onshoring is redrawing the logistics map, sustainability is reshaping development, technology is boosting efficiency and output, and capital markets are evolving to meet new financial realities. For stakeholders across the supply chain—from developers and investors to tenants and brokers—understanding these trends, and opportunities, is essential for navigating the road ahead.
Is the Net Lease Industrial Market Still "Red Hot"?
The single-tenant net lease industrial market has been on fire in recent years. Buoyed by e-commerce growth, industrial properties were seeing record low cap rates and record high competition from investors following the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the sector has not been immune to recent macro-economic volatility. Search -In fact, quarterly transaction volume fell more than 46 percent in the first quarter of 2023, making it the slowest quarter reported by the net lease industrial sector since mid-2017. Does this mean that the industrial market is losing its steam? While some investors are waiting on the sidelines, trends including onshoring, supply/demand dynamics and rising interest in sale-leasebacks will help bolster the industrial market in the long term. Here’s why: Impact of onshoring Supply chain issues during the pandemic have been a major catalyst for onshoring in the industrial market. Having manufacturing facilities overseas meant accessibility was limited (or in some cases, completely restricted), which had a major impact on companies’ ability to get their product to consumers. As a result, more companies have focused on bringing their facilities back to the U.S., which has only been supported by lower labor-related costs, better automation technology and an accessible highway and interstate system. Technology companies have largely been leading the onshoring charge, with companies like Intel, Micron and Texas Instruments committing to building large manufacturing plants in the U.S. This has led to a steady rise in demand for warehouse and industrial spaces from U.S. companies, with notable growth seen in the Southeast. Supply/demand dynamics After several years of growth post-COVID, warehouse construction is on the decline due to higher interest rates, a slower economy and Amazon’s reduced spend on new facilities for 2023. 6,700 warehouses are expected to be built in 2023, a 35% reduction compared to the 10,000 built in 2022. Despite this, e-commerce growth is expected to keep demand for warehouse space strong, with rents anticipated to increase over the next year. The good news for investors is that cap rates are also on the rise – Search -up 35 basis points from record lows in 2022. As the buyer-seller price gap continues to close, more investors will likely jump back into the market, strengthening transaction volume in 2024. Uptick in sale-leaseback interest The volatility in the capital markets environment has certainly been challenging for companies, with cost of capital rising considerably given increasing interest rates. Alternative forms of financing such as sale-leasebacks have come to the forefront as companies look for ways to unlock capital. Sale-leasebacks offer a “naturally accretive” funding source, particularly for companies that own fungible, mission-critical real estate and are willing to sign a long-term lease. Industrial facilities have inherent criticality which makes them uniquely attractive to investors, making owners of these types of facilities great candidates for sale-leasebacks. While inflation is starting to cool, experts predict that the Fed won’t start cutting interest rates until 2024, which will encourage more industrial companies to pursue a sale-leaseback. With more opportunities likely coming to market and investors poised to execute (particularly all-equity buyers), we believe industrial will maintain its position as the “darling” of net lease for the foreseeable future.
A Bumpy Road Ahead, but Reasons for Optimism: Key Takeaways from MIPIM 2023
Last month, 23,000 CRE professionals traveled to Cannes for MIPIM 2023 – Europe’s largest real estate conference. Attendees soaked in the French Riviera sun on La Croisette as they gathered to discuss today’s real estate market and the potential opportunities and challenges that lie ahead. Shakeups and surprises in the financial markets took center stage, but optimism about the future of the commercial real estate market remained. Here were the three biggest topics that dominated the discussion and our perspective on what it means for the future. Financial market turmoil The conference kicked off amidst the largest banking failure in more than a decade with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), followed by the dramatic fall in the stock price of Credit Suisse and the subsequent announcement that UBS would be acquiring the company. The banking sector turmoil became a hot topic of conversation, with delegates divided over the economic impact of these micro-shocks. Some believed the downfall of SVB and Credit Suisse were not a signal for the entire economy, given SVB operated in a very specific ecosystem and Credit Suisse had faced a number of problems going back several years. Others felt it was eerily similar to the bank failures in 2008 and an indication we are moving into a financial crisis. Laser focus on interest rates For some delegates, the outlook off the back of the banking turmoil remained positive, as many thought the banking crisis would help stave off the Central Bank’s appetite for rate increases in their battle against inflation. Ultimately, this proved to be short-lived given the European Central Bank’s decision to raise interest rates across the Eurozone by 0.5 percentage points on March 16 and the Federal Reserve’s move to raise rates by 0.25 percentage points the following week. Interest rates, and the broader discussion concerning the pace of hikes, were topics already in focus long before MIPIM began. However, during the conference, there emerged a growing consensus that we are entering a new stage of the market with higher interest rates likely staying for the foreseeable future and old pricing levels now a thing of the past. Opportunities still available Where to source attractive investment opportunities was another key topic in Cannes. Similar to years prior, logistics led the way with regard to positive investor sentiment. Attendees agreed the fundamentals for the asset class remain strong, although in some markets many pointed out that logistics cap rates were slow to adjust to rising interest rates. Office, on the other hand, has largely fallen out of favor with investors given work-from-home and hybrid schedules remaining in place for many companies. Our perspective If an economic downturn is on our horizon, W. P. Carey is well positioned to weather the storm given we have a 50-year history of operating in all economic cycles. Our portfolio diversification, disciplined underwriting and lease structuring, and our well-positioned balance sheet, make us one of the safest REITs in terms of downside protection. As an all-equity buyer, W. P. Carey also remains well positioned to execute on deals and offer certainty of close given we aren’t reliant on third-party debt financing. For example, we recently announced a cross-border sale-leaseback of an industrial portfolio in Spain and Italy with Siderforgerossi, a leading manufacturer of specialized forged metal components. The facilities represent a significant portion of the company’s manufacturing footprint and are triple-net leased for a term of 25 years with annual rent increases. Despite the bumpy road ahead, I remain optimistic about the future. Rising interest rates make sale-leasebacks a more attractive financing option for corporates on a relative basis, meaning we’ll likely see an influx in opportunities in 2023. We always say that sale-leasebacks are a good tool in good times, but a great tool in uncertain times, and this sentiment couldn’t ring more true than it does today.
Optimism Amidst Uncertainty: Key Takeaways from EXPO Real
Earlier this month, Europe’s largest real estate trade show EXPO Real returned in Munich. Nearly 40,000 attendees gathered to network and discuss trends, innovation and opportunities in the real estate market. Traditionally, EXPO is a place “where deals get done” but given the current challenges in the macroeconomic environment attendees were more focused on understanding where the market is heading into 2023. Here were three of the most prominent topics discussed. Rising interest rates With the European Central Bank announcing its third consecutive rate hike this month, interest rates were the main topic of discussion at EXPO Real. Largely, attendees were focused on how assets should be priced to reflect rising rates, with the consensus that we’ll continue to see cap rates rise and property prices fall into next year. However, a big challenge that attendees are facing is how to bridge the gap between seller expectations and the pricing buyers will need to generate adequate returns. To compound the issue, inflation remains at record highs in Europe which means more interest rate increases are certainly on the horizon. This will create an even more challenging environment for real estate investors that require third-party debt financing to close transactions, making all-equity buyers better positioned to execute on deals. Logistics still dominant Despite the macroeconomic doom and gloom, the current market still has room for certain sectors to thrive. Logistics remains the darling of the real estate world, with Europe seeing record logistics investment volumes in the first half of 2022. 20% of all real estate investment in Europe is in the logistics sector, suggesting there is still a very strong investor appetite for the asset class. The sector continues to benefit from tailwinds amplified by COVID such as the rise of e-commerce, which continues to drive occupier demand for logistics and warehouse space. Record-low inventory and high demand have meant the logistics sector has been slower to see cap rate increases than others; however, many are seeing a re-pricing period take place which is critical for investors looking to close transactions. Sale-leasebacks gaining prominence as bank lending becomes more restrictive Amidst all the uncertainty at EXPO Real, there was still an undercurrent of optimism among attendees. Historically, we’ve seen more sale-leaseback opportunities come to market in challenging economic environments as a result of companies seeking ways to shore up capital to support ongoing business operations and growth. With banks becoming more restrictive with lending, alternative forms of capital such as sale-leasebacks provide an immediate opportunity to plug the financing gap for companies. And with interest rates likely to continue rising into 2023, now is a great time to pursue a sale-leaseback and lock in an attractive rental rate for the long-term.
Three Ways Supply Chain Disruptions are Impacting the Commercial Real Estate Market
The emergence of the coronavirus in early 2020 caused a drastic slowdown in supply chains across the globe. Labor shortages, fluctuating consumer demand, disruptions in shipping lanes, COVID-19 restrictions as well as general economic uncertainty caused major disturbances in the flow of goods. The war in Ukraine further compounded these issues by cutting off the supply of critical raw materials and ratcheting up energy costs. These disruptions have caused several challenges and opportunities for commercial real estate as the industry focuses on restoring the reliability of the global supply chain. Here are three of the most significant impacts: Rising demand for warehouse space During the pandemic, many companies struggled to restock in-demand products driven by a steep increase in online orders amid global lockdowns. Once lockdown restrictions loosened, this led to an “inventory bullwhip effect” as companies over-purchased merchandise to avoid future inventory shortages. Sustained supply-chain bottlenecks led retailers to continue over-purchasing—shifting from “just-in-time” inventory management to a “just-in-case” model in an effort to keep more inventory onsite. As a result, the demand for warehouse space skyrocketed. The impact of this rising demand is significant. On one hand, warehouse sellers can get a significant premium for their property if they pursue a sale-leaseback of their real estate. However, companies looking to acquire or rent warehouse space might have a difficult time as vacancies are at record lows—for U.S. industrial properties it’s just 4.1%. Supply chain disruptions causing delays in construction materials also increase the build time for new warehouses, meaning many companies are left waiting several years for the space they need to accommodate today’s surging retail inventories. From an investor perspective, rising demand often translates to low cap rates for well-located warehouses despite inflationary pressures and rising interest rates. However, the shortage in available space also enhances the criticality of these properties to tenants, making them less likely to vacate at the end of the lease term. Re-shoring supply chains Supply chain disruptions highlighted the risk of off-shore operations for many manufacturers. As a result, many manufacturers are making the decision to re-shore their production facilities to protect against such disruptions in the future. In fact, in 2021, a record 1,800 companies re-shored their production operations in the U.S. Companies looking to re-shore production are choosing locations with a high availability of land for development, a large pool of skilled labor and well-developed transportation infrastructure including railways and ports. This has led to an increase in development in the Midwest and South due to both regions’ access to rail infrastructure and seaports respectively. While re-shoring has contributed to the rising demand for warehouse space, it has also opened up new opportunities for investors as companies look to rent existing warehouses in tertiary markets that may not have historically been attractive, but have access to transportation infrastructure and land available for development. Increased interest in last-mile logistics space With limited warehouse space available, companies are having to get creative with their distribution strategies. One such method is through last-mile warehouses, which facilitate the movement of goods in the supply chain to the final destination. These warehouses are typically located close to the consumer and therefore decrease supply-chain costs while minimizing delivery time. As a result, warehouses situated near major highways and bridges that lead into metropolitan hubs are becoming highly in-demand for companies looking to make their distribution network more nimble. This presents an opportunity for investors who own these types of facilities to capitalize on demand and secure high-quality tenants on long-term leases.