Three Ways Supply Chain Disruptions are Impacting the Commercial Real Estate Market
Rising demand for warehouse space, re-shoring and last-mile logistics among the biggest trends
The emergence of the coronavirus in early 2020 caused a drastic slowdown in supply chains across the globe. Labor shortages, fluctuating consumer demand, disruptions in shipping lanes, COVID-19 restrictions as well as general economic uncertainty caused major disturbances in the flow of goods. The war in Ukraine further compounded these issues by cutting off the supply of critical raw materials and ratcheting up energy costs. These disruptions have caused several challenges and opportunities for commercial real estate as the industry focuses on restoring the reliability of the global supply chain. Here are three of the most significant impacts:
Rising demand for warehouse space
During the pandemic, many companies struggled to restock in-demand products driven by a steep increase in online orders amid global lockdowns. Once lockdown restrictions loosened, this led to an “inventory bullwhip effect” as companies over-purchased merchandise to avoid future inventory shortages. Sustained supply-chain bottlenecks led retailers to continue over-purchasing—shifting from “just-in-time” inventory management to a “just-in-case” model in an effort to keep more inventory onsite. As a result, the demand for warehouse space skyrocketed.
The impact of this rising demand is significant. On one hand, warehouse sellers can get a significant premium for their property if they pursue a sale-leaseback of their real estate. However, companies looking to acquire or rent warehouse space might have a difficult time as vacancies are at record lows—for U.S. industrial properties it’s just 4.1%. Supply chain disruptions causing delays in construction materials also increase the build time for new warehouses, meaning many companies are left waiting several years for the space they need to accommodate today’s surging retail inventories.
From an investor perspective, rising demand often translates to low cap rates for well-located warehouses despite inflationary pressures and rising interest rates. However, the shortage in available space also enhances the criticality of these properties to tenants, making them less likely to vacate at the end of the lease term.
Re-shoring supply chains
Supply chain disruptions highlighted the risk of off-shore operations for many manufacturers. As a result, many manufacturers are making the decision to re-shore their production facilities to protect against such disruptions in the future. In fact, in 2021, a record 1,800 companies re-shored their production operations in the U.S.
Companies looking to re-shore production are choosing locations with a high availability of land for development, a large pool of skilled labor and well-developed transportation infrastructure including railways and ports. This has led to an increase in development in the Midwest and South due to both regions’ access to rail infrastructure and seaports respectively.
While re-shoring has contributed to the rising demand for warehouse space, it has also opened up new opportunities for investors as companies look to rent existing warehouses in tertiary markets that may not have historically been attractive, but have access to transportation infrastructure and land available for development.
Increased interest in last-mile logistics space
With limited warehouse space available, companies are having to get creative with their distribution strategies. One such method is through last-mile warehouses, which facilitate the movement of goods in the supply chain to the final destination. These warehouses are typically located close to the consumer and therefore decrease supply-chain costs while minimizing delivery time. As a result, warehouses situated near major highways and bridges that lead into metropolitan hubs are becoming highly in-demand for companies looking to make their distribution network more nimble. This presents an opportunity for investors who own these types of facilities to capitalize on demand and secure high-quality tenants on long-term leases.
Related Topics:
You May Also Like:
An Interview with Gino Sabatini
Gino Sabatini, our Head of Investments, was recently a guest on the Net Lease Observer podcast. In the podcast, Gino discusses: His background in the restaurant business The history of W. P. Carey His view on how the investment market has changed over the years; and His outlook for 2026 and beyond Watch now An interview with Gino Sabatini, W. P. Carey, and Sean Hostert, Net Lease Observer. The referenced media source is missing and needs to be re-embedded.
REIT Access to Equity Markets Could Accelerate Acquisitions in the Coming Year
REITs are working to find a seat at the table as active buyers for commercial real estate property as the transaction market regains momentum. One sign that REITs are positioning to take advantage of buying opportunities is a recent flurry of equity raising. Five REITs went to the market with secondary offerings in February, raising a combined $1.3 billion. W. P. Carey Inc. (NYSE: WPC) raised $496.8 million Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE: EPRT) raised $350 million NETSTREIT Corp. (NYSE: NTST) raised $208 million Curbline Properties Corp. (NYSE: CURB) raised $204 million Getty Realty Corp. (NYSE: GTY) raised $131 million W. P. Carey is coming off a record $2.1 billion in new acquisitions in 2025. “It's a really good market right now for us. The stability in interest rates has brought bid-ask spreads in, and sellers who have been on the sidelines for the last few years are now back into the market. So, we took advantage of that in 2025,” says CEO Jason Fox. The company is targeting primarily manufacturing and logistics facilities, as well as select retail, both in the United States and Europe. The REIT is poised for more growth in 2026 thanks to a strong balance sheet that includes roughly over $850 million in equity forwards, a credit facility of more than $2 billion that is largely undrawn, and annual free cash flow of about $300 million per year. The company has issued conservative guidance for acquisitions of between $1.25 billion and $1.75 billion, with the expectation that those numbers will be adjusted depending on how the year progresses. “Our cost of capital is as strong as it's been for quite some time. That supports accretive investment activity, and it allows us to be competitive on pricing when needed,” Fox says. “I think a lot of REITs find themselves in a similar position.” For all those reasons, REITs are likely to be more active acquirers this year. That's reflected in deal volume to date, as well as many of the guidance numbers for 2026, he adds. Across the board, it’s safe to say that REITs have been preparing for an acquisition spree. “Operationally, REITs are very much ready to handle a significant increase in number of properties, and some of that's being helped by the technology investments that companies have been making to be efficient and manage more with less,” says Matthew Werner, managing director, REIT strategies, at Chilton Capital Management. REITs also have worked to strengthen balance sheets. Many are under-levered with some of the lowest debt ratios they’ve ever had and very low levels of floating-rate debt specifically. “They have tons of capital capacity, but except for a few sectors, their cost of equity doesn’t make sense for them to go and do transactions,” Werner says. Cost of Capital Hurdles After multiple years of low transactions volume, commercial real estate transaction volume started to recover and rose 23% last year to $545.3 billion, according to MSCI. Certainly, REITs were among the group of buyers. In fact, four REITs—Welltower Inc. (NYSE: WELL), Agree Realty Corp. (NYSE: ADC), W. P. Carey, and Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (NYSE: STWD)—ranked in the top 12 for most active buyers last year based on the total number of properties acquired, according to MSCI. However, REITs as a group were noticeably less active last year. REITs accounted for 5.5% of the total transaction volume compared to 9.6% of transaction volume the prior year, and more than 10% of transaction volume in 2020 and 2021, according to JLL. The key reason for that decline is that most REITs have been trading at discounts to NAV since mid-2022, when the Federal Reserve first began its rate-hiking cycle. “A lot of REITs, through no fault of their own, have been trading at perpetual discounts to NAV,” says Steve Hentschel, senior managing director and leader of the M&A and corporate advisory platform at JLL. “It's very hard to raise new equity when it's dilutive, and without raising new equity, it's hard to be an active acquirer,” he says. Over the last few years, many publicly traded REITs have been trading at discounts to both their underlying asset values and the broader equity markets. That dynamic constrained opportunities to make new investments, and instead resulted in some take-private activity, adds Bryan Connolly, chair of DLA Piper’s U.S. real estate practice. “Looking ahead, as the underlying real estate fundamentals improve, interest rates stabilize and potentially decrease, and values in the private market continue to adjust, there should be more opportunities for growth by public REITs,” he says. Haves and Have Nots The spike in interest rates and pricing volatility that sent both buyers and sellers to the sidelines in 2023 and 2024 appears to be reversing course. The availability of debt, cost of debt, and comfort level with valuations are all improving, which is good news for commercial real estate sales activity in general. For REITs, the ability to transact is still divided into those “haves” and “have nots” in terms of NAV. The “haves” are those sectors that are trading at large premiums to NAV, notably health care, net lease retail, and data centers. Health care REITs in particular are trading at historically large premiums that are 50%, 100%, or even close to 150% above NAV in some cases. As a result, companies such as Welltower, Ventas, Inc. (NYSE: VTR), American Healthcare REIT, Inc. (NYSE: ATR) and CareTrust REIT, Inc. (NYSE: CTR) have been very acquisitive. Welltower, for example, completed $13.9 billion in new investments in the fourth quarter alone, which is larger than the total asset size of some public REITs. CareTrust invested $1.8 billion in 2025, including $562 million in fourth quarter. At REITworld last December, CareTrust President and CEO Dave Sedgwick said that with a larger team and broader platform, the “table is set” for another strong year. The REIT kicked off 2026 with the January announcement of a $142 million acquisition of six skilled nursing facilities in the Mid-Atlantic region. “We've always said, if you’ve got it, flaunt it, and we’re seeing that now from a lot of these health care REITs where they are appropriately using that cheaper cost of equity to be acquisitive in the markets they operate in,” says Daniel Ismail, co-head of strategic research, managing director, at Green Street. Health care REITs have the added benefit of finding good buying opportunities within sub-sectors, particularly in senior housing, he adds. Net lease is another sector that has been leveraging its cost of capital advantage to make accretive acquisitions. And many of the same players that were active last year expect to keep their foot on the gas. For example, Agree Realty acquired $1.45 billion in retail net lease properties last year, and the company recently increased guidance for 2026 to $1.6 billion to be deployed across its three external growth platforms. “Our pipeline to start the year is very healthy, filled with typical assets and pricing that investors would anticipate from Agree Realty,” says CEO Joey Agree. However, the REIT is watching to see how the expectation of lower interest rates this year will play out in terms of pricing, sellers, and the competitive landscape. “One important misconception is that publicly listed and private capital are chasing the same assets,” he adds. “It’s important for investors to understand the size and scope of the net lease market and appreciate the divergent strategies and execution of the many players.” Positioning for Acquisitions On the opposite side of the spectrum, a number of sectors are trading at discounts to NAV of between roughly 10% and 20%, including office, apartments, industrial, self-storage, and lodging. REITs in those sectors are still buying assets, but they are less active. “It will be hard to see them ramp up acquisition activity throughout 2026, and they likely will be highly selective in the type of deals they do,” Ismail says. Digging into individual property sectors, there are multiple examples of companies that have done a lot of hard work to put themselves in better positions for the acquisitions to “turn back on,” Werner adds. “The market is paying attention to that and rewarding these companies,” he says. FrontView REIT, Inc. (NYSE: FVR), for example, was able to source a convertible preferred investment and now has the opportunity to prove their acquisition strategy. As a result, their share price is on a path toward being able to issue common equity again, and the company will be able to continue acquisitions after they use the cash from the convertible preferred issuance, Werner notes. REITs also have another lever to pull that could give them an edge in acquisitions—the ability to utilize the tax advantages of the REIT structure to allow private operators to sell their assets to REITs. Instead of a cash sale, an owner could consider an UPREIT, which would allow them to transfer their basis into operating partnership (OP) units. There have been one or two examples of that in strip centers, which has been experiencing good fundamentals. “So, we could see a few more of those as the year goes on,” Ismail says. Outlook for M&A Activity In addition to property sales, the environment could be more conducive for M&A deals this year, both in public-to-public and take-private deals. One recent announcement was the acquisition of Veris Residential, Inc. (NYSE: VRE) by a group led by Affinius Capital for $3.4 billion in cash. “If the math doesn't work for a REIT to go buy something on the private market, why not buy a public peer with an exchange,” Werner says. “I think the sector is ripe for that, but I do think that it's also ripe for take-privates because the debt markets are very open.” Many of the M&A deals that have occurred in the last year were take-privates that involved deals below $3 billion. Some of those transactions are getting done in “chunks” with perhaps one buyer acquiring a large portion of the portfolio, with other assets or smaller portions being sold off separately, Hentschel notes. For example, Aimco is reportedly sold seven of its Chicago-area properties to an investment group for $455 million as part of its liquidation. Buying Opportunities Ahead REITs could find more buying opportunities ahead in a market where transaction volume is rising and the bid-ask pricing gap between buyers and sellers is narrowing. Although transaction markets have not been entirely frozen, the inventory of for-sale properties has been thin, with more sellers that have opted to hold onto properties and wait out market volatility. “There was plenty of liquidity, but there was a bid-ask gap between buyers and sellers, and now that gap is closing, and more product is coming to market,” Hentschel says. In its 2025 Year-End Real Estate Trends Report, DLA Piper is predicting that U.S. commercial real estate transaction volume will increase by another 15% to 20% this year. “We expect REITs will be most active in sectors perceived to benefit from multi-year tailwinds such as health care and housing-related assets, including senior housing and multifamily properties,” Connolly says. Data centers are likely to continue to command interest, as well as manufacturing and logistics due to supply chain challenges, continued expansion of e-commerce, and on-shoring. “Public REITs have been challenged by the gap between how the public market values their stock and how the private market values the underlying real estate,” Connolly points out. “However, as private market values continue to adjust to the new reality, this headwind should diminish.”
MIPIM 2026: Where Capital, Conviction and Opportunity Converge
As the industry gathers once again in Cannes for MIPIM 2026, the European real estate investment landscape appears to be at an important inflection point. After several years defined by volatility, repricing and constrained liquidity, there are growing signs of stabilisation — though the recovery remains uneven and market-specific. Against that backdrop, three questions are likely to dominate conversations at MIPIM this year: Are European transaction volumes expected to improve? How will the sale‑leaseback market evolve amid a significant wall of maturing debt? Which sectors appear best positioned as investors recalibrate their strategies? The Outlook for European Transaction Volumes Pricing expectations between buyers and sellers have adjusted meaningfully over the past 18–24 months, following one of the sharpest repricing cycles the European real estate market has experienced in decades. After a prolonged period of stalled activity, valuations across many markets now show clear signs of stabilisation, supported by greater transparency around interest‑rate policy and financing costs. While long‑term rates remain elevated relative to the pre‑2022 environment, the pace of change has slowed, allowing investors to underwrite returns with greater confidence and begin re‑engaging selectively with the market. This improved clarity around cost of capital is starting to translate into renewed deal momentum in several core European markets. Savills reports that European investment volumes are expected to rise by around 18% in 2026 as pricing firms up, macroeconomic conditions stabilise and institutional capital returns more consistently across the main sectors. That said, recovery is unlikely to be uniform. We continue to see divergence between markets and sectors, with liquidity gravitating toward assets where fundamentals are strongest and underwriting assumptions can be supported over the long term. Sale‑leasebacks and the Growing Need for Capital One of the most prominent themes we expect to discuss at MIPIM 2026 is the growing demand for alternative sources of capital — particularly as a significant amount of corporate and real estate debt comes due this year and next. Across Europe, many owner-occupiers are facing refinancing challenges in an environment where traditional bank lending remains selective and difficult to access. At the same time, businesses are contending with higher operating costs, investment requirements linked to competitiveness, and the need to preserve balance‑sheet flexibility. In this context, sale‑leasebacks are increasingly being viewed as a strategic financing tool. By unlocking capital tied up in real estate, owner-occupiers can redeploy funds toward growth initiatives, operational requirements and debt paydown, while retaining long‑term operational control of their assets. Sectors to Watch: Industrial and Retail When it comes to sector preferences, industrial and retail assets continue to stand out, provided they are underpinned by strong occupier fundamentals. In the industrial space, manufacturing and logistics assets that play a critical role in supply chains remain attractive. Structural trends such as nearshoring, supply‑chain resilience and e‑commerce continue to support demand in many European markets. Assets that are modern, well‑located and tailored to tenant needs are increasingly difficult to replace, reinforcing their long‑term importance. Retail also remains an area of opportunity — particularly for formats that serve non‑discretionary or value‑oriented consumer demand. Grocery‑anchored retail, DIY, and other essential retail categories have demonstrated resilience through economic cycles, supported by consistent foot traffic and defensive spending patterns. A Measured but Constructive Outlook MIPIM 2026 comes at a time when optimism is returning to European real estate markets. While challenges remain, there is growing evidence that capital is being deployed at more significant levels — particularly where opportunities are grounded in fundamentals rather than short-term trends. The conversations in Cannes this year are likely to reflect that balance: pragmatic, selective, but increasingly forward‑looking. For long‑term investors focused on durable cash flows and partnership‑driven transactions, the environment continues to present compelling opportunities.