How Sellers Can Maximize Value During Times of Inflation
Higher inflation, higher real estate valuations
Driven by the economy reopening and increasing consumer demand, the US economy is experiencing the biggest surge in inflation in over a decade. The Fed expects higher-than-usual inflation to continue throughout the year, but believes it is transitory and will level off next year as supply chain bottlenecks caused by the pandemic resolve. Although inflation is often associated with negative factors such as higher prices for consumer goods and higher labor costs, corporate owner-occupiers can benefit from a surge in demand for hard assets through a sale-leaseback of their corporate real estate.
In a sale-leaseback, a company sells its real estate to an investor for cash and simultaneously enters into a long-term lease. The seller works with the buyer to structure a lease for a period that meets its needs without having to worry about refinancing. The seller can then use the cash to grow its business, reduce debt or execute on other higher-return core business initiatives.
While there are numerous reasons to leverage this cost-effective financing tool in all market conditions, there are added benefits for sellers amid rising inflation:
- Increased property values: During inflationary periods there is higher demand for hard assets such as commercial real estate, as it is a natural inflation hedge due to its appreciation over time. This means that more buyers are in the market, increasing competition and driving real estate prices higher.
- Less supply: Inflation leads to increased material and labor costs, which disincentivizes developers from building new properties and limits supply. This puts a premium on existing, high-quality properties, which reinforces the fact that sellers can unlock more value out of their real estate.
- Higher borrowing costs: The cost of borrowing is typically impacted during inflationary periods, as inflation devalues the currency and forces lenders to raise interest rates. As a result, loans will be a more expensive option for companies when compared to long-term sale-leaseback financing from all-equity buyers who are better positioned in an inflationary environment.
- Favorable rents: Before the Fed’s anticipated hike of interest rates next year, sellers have the opportunity to lock in current low rates on a very long-term basis. The lease term on a sale-leaseback is typically anywhere from 15 to 25 years compared a five- or even 10-year term on a commercial mortgage. Sale-leasebacks also enable the seller to unlock 100% of the value of the real estate compared to a bank mortgage, where 70% to 75% loan-to-value ratio is more likely.
For corporate sellers seeking working capital this means now is the time to act. When considering a sale-leaseback, it’s important to partner with an experienced, all-equity buyer with both the expertise to close quickly and the capital to support its tenants’ long-term business objectives. W. P. Carey has specialized in sale-leasebacks for nearly 50 years and prides itself on being a long-term partner to its tenants. If you or your client are interested in selling your corporate real estate, contact us today.
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The Net Lease Market Finds Its Footing
Net lease investors have been on a wild ride over the last few years. The large run-up in benchmark rates beginning in 2022 created challenges around pricing expectations. However, Jason Patterson, executive director, investments at W. P. Carey, notes that despite some trade volatility and other factors, more stability in long-term rates over the past two years has helped those on both sides of a transaction find more common ground on where pricing should land. Bid-Ask Spreads Narrow as Pricing Stabilizes For much of the reset period, sellers were anchored in 2022-era valuations, while buyers priced deals on materially wider rates, and that gap has begun to narrow. “A slightly more range-bound 10-year Treasury provides some confidence on where pricing should shake out,” says Patterson. He adds that increased capital inflows to the net lease space have also further compressed bids, driving more transactions to pencil out on both sides. Where sellers once struggled to meet the market, a more stable pricing environment has made that alignment more achievable. Tighter Credit Spreads and Sale-Leasebacks Support Deal Flow Patterson explains that credit spreads broadly had been near record lows until recently, a condition that he describes as helping keep cap rates from widening significantly. Tighter spreads benefit net lease investors both in how deals are capitalized and in the cap rates at which tenants and developers expect to transact. Patterson notes that he expects to see an increase in sale-leaseback interest driven by a pickup in private equity and M&A activity. He also adds that lower short-term rates may stimulate deal flow in private equity, and a change in ownership often serves as the catalyst for a sale-leaseback arrangement. Moving forward, Patterson points to interest rate volatility and credit as two of the most important factors for net lease investors. Rate volatility, he notes, can quickly undermine returns. He also flags credit as a persistent area of focus, noting that while recent headlines have raised broader concerns, the long-term nature of net lease real estate may make those risks more muted than in other sectors. And as the market moves into a more active phase, those who keep a close eye on both will be best positioned to capitalize on what Patterson sees as a period of growing opportunity ahead.
MIPIM 2026: Where Capital, Conviction and Opportunity Converge
As the industry gathers once again in Cannes for MIPIM 2026, the European real estate investment landscape appears to be at an important inflection point. After several years defined by volatility, repricing and constrained liquidity, there are growing signs of stabilisation — though the recovery remains uneven and market-specific. Against that backdrop, three questions are likely to dominate conversations at MIPIM this year: Are European transaction volumes expected to improve? How will the sale‑leaseback market evolve amid a significant wall of maturing debt? Which sectors appear best positioned as investors recalibrate their strategies? The Outlook for European Transaction Volumes Pricing expectations between buyers and sellers have adjusted meaningfully over the past 18–24 months, following one of the sharpest repricing cycles the European real estate market has experienced in decades. After a prolonged period of stalled activity, valuations across many markets now show clear signs of stabilisation, supported by greater transparency around interest‑rate policy and financing costs. While long‑term rates remain elevated relative to the pre‑2022 environment, the pace of change has slowed, allowing investors to underwrite returns with greater confidence and begin re‑engaging selectively with the market. This improved clarity around cost of capital is starting to translate into renewed deal momentum in several core European markets. Savills reports that European investment volumes are expected to rise by around 18% in 2026 as pricing firms up, macroeconomic conditions stabilise and institutional capital returns more consistently across the main sectors. That said, recovery is unlikely to be uniform. We continue to see divergence between markets and sectors, with liquidity gravitating toward assets where fundamentals are strongest and underwriting assumptions can be supported over the long term. Sale‑leasebacks and the Growing Need for Capital One of the most prominent themes we expect to discuss at MIPIM 2026 is the growing demand for alternative sources of capital — particularly as a significant amount of corporate and real estate debt comes due this year and next. Across Europe, many owner-occupiers are facing refinancing challenges in an environment where traditional bank lending remains selective and difficult to access. At the same time, businesses are contending with higher operating costs, investment requirements linked to competitiveness, and the need to preserve balance‑sheet flexibility. In this context, sale‑leasebacks are increasingly being viewed as a strategic financing tool. By unlocking capital tied up in real estate, owner-occupiers can redeploy funds toward growth initiatives, operational requirements and debt paydown, while retaining long‑term operational control of their assets. Sectors to Watch: Industrial and Retail When it comes to sector preferences, industrial and retail assets continue to stand out, provided they are underpinned by strong occupier fundamentals. In the industrial space, manufacturing and logistics assets that play a critical role in supply chains remain attractive. Structural trends such as nearshoring, supply‑chain resilience and e‑commerce continue to support demand in many European markets. Assets that are modern, well‑located and tailored to tenant needs are increasingly difficult to replace, reinforcing their long‑term importance. Retail also remains an area of opportunity — particularly for formats that serve non‑discretionary or value‑oriented consumer demand. Grocery‑anchored retail, DIY, and other essential retail categories have demonstrated resilience through economic cycles, supported by consistent foot traffic and defensive spending patterns. A Measured but Constructive Outlook MIPIM 2026 comes at a time when optimism is returning to European real estate markets. While challenges remain, there is growing evidence that capital is being deployed at more significant levels — particularly where opportunities are grounded in fundamentals rather than short-term trends. The conversations in Cannes this year are likely to reflect that balance: pragmatic, selective, but increasingly forward‑looking. For long‑term investors focused on durable cash flows and partnership‑driven transactions, the environment continues to present compelling opportunities.