WPC in the News
Three Ways Real Estate Investors Can Recession-Proof Their Portfolios
Economic experts are continuing to signal that a recession could be on the horizon. A number of factors are contributing to this sentiment, but recent bank failures, tightening credit, interest rate increases and sustained high inflation are among the biggest. To help prepare in case of a downturn, below are three things real estate investors can do to “recession-proof” their portfolios and position their business for long-term success. Prioritize diversification When it comes to portfolio resiliency, diversification is key. Investing in a range of geographies, asset types and industries reduces potential risks tied to individual market volatility. If one particular asset class is more heavily impacted by a recession than others, having a diverse portfolio comprising several asset classes reduces the overall impact. Portfolio diversification also allows investors to allocate capital to where they are seeing the best risk-adjusted returns. This means investors can be nimble and take advantage of unique opportunities should they arise. Focus on mission-critical real estate To be successful in commercial real estate investing, it’s important to focus on properties with strong fundamentals, such as location, size and quality. However, when positioning a portfolio to weather all economic cycles, arguably the most important aspect of a property to focus on is “mission criticality,” or how important the property is to the tenant’s operations. When a property is mission critical, a tenant is more likely to remain in the facility – both in good times and in bad – for the long term. The worst thing that could happen during an economic downturn is to have a portfolio of vacant assets – and therefore limited rent payments – so by focusing on mission criticality, investors can better ensure durable, long-term cash flows. Analyze tenant credit and business Disciplined credit underwriting is critical to long-term portfolio success. Large tenants with a strong underlying credit and revenue history will be better equipped to weather downturns through access to liquidity, or in a worse-case scenario, have the ability to restructure and continue operating in their mission-critical properties. In addition to a tenant’s financials, it’s also important to examine the long-term outlook of the tenant’s business and industry. For instance, a tenant that produces electric car engines may have a better long-term outlook – and therefore be better suited to a long-term lease – than one that produces gas-powered engines given the trend toward electric vehicles. Final thoughts It’s never too late for real estate investors to look at their investment strategies and take steps to enhance their portfolio resiliency. Focusing on long-term stability – through diversification, mission-critical real estate and creditworthy tenants – versus short-term gains will help investors to build portfolios that will carry them through all market cycles.
Where Net Lease is Heading
With financing options restricted by interest rate uncertainty, corporate real estate sellers have been turning to sale-leasebacks. It’s easy to see why: these deals offer liquidity and immediacy. For the net lease sector at large, Tyler Swann, managing director, investments at W. P. Carey, is seeing US deal flow coming almost exclusively from new sale-leasebacks versus acquisitions of existing leases, a change largely driven by the changing capital markets landscape. CRE Psychology Playing Catch-up As interest rates have risen and asset values have fallen, the pricing expectations of sellers have not followed suit. That’s led the market to favor new sale-leasebacks as opposed to investment properties that are acquired from third-party landlords, Swann says. "There's a disconnect between what buyers can realistically pay given current capital markets and what a seller wants,” he says. “It takes time for psychological expectations of sellers to reset and I think we haven't seen that play out just yet, which is why those existing lease deals haven't really been moving or coming to market at all.” New sale-leaseback sellers are more realistic, comparing and choosing the costs of such a deal versus the current cost of capital, especially the added expense of raising debt in the current high interest rate environment. The benefits of the here and now – unlocking their CRE equity means it's "go time" for deals, unlike the often disparate expectations of a third-party landlord seller. Open Opportunity, With Caveats While there are fewer overall opportunities in the net-lease market compared to the last couple of years, there are fewer market challengers due to the more restricted financing options. “Plenty of investors who were very competitive just a couple of years ago, for example, were reliant on CMBS debt and are now no longer nearly as competitive as they used to be,” Swann says. “And that's given us a leg up.” Office demand continues to suffer from uncertainty, mainly from lagging return-to-office efforts and hard-to-figure valuations given the large amounts of vacant and shadow space. On the plus side, Swann views the industrial sector as the most favored by net lease investors, as strong demand post-COVID for logistics facilities persists, with companies building out their supply chains amid a more general move to on-shoring production. Earlier this year, W. P. Carey completed an approximately $468 million, 20-year lease sale-leaseback with Apotex for a portfolio of pharmaceutical manufacturing assets in the greater Toronto area. Swann points out that the combination of sector (industrial), type (new vs. existing lease) and trend (taking advantage of better cost of capital through a sale-leaseback) all led to the deal getting done. “In a lot of ways I think that Apotex deal is a good example of where the market is going,” says Swann.
Why Net Lease Continues to Draw Investors
The net lease retail sector continues to outperform despite changing interest rates, with a growing number of retailers expanding their footprints or developing new properties against a “compelling” cap rate environment. That’s according to Michael Fitzgerald, executive director, head of US Retail, W. P. Carey, who told GlobeSt at ICSC Las Vegas that many retailers are “aggressively expanding” in their markets. “We’ve seen a lot of activity in sale-leaseback and we are bullish on net lease retail,” Fitzgerald says. “The retail sector is enormous – and we’re chasing deals.” Fitzgerald also discusses: The state of retail fundamentals How investors are responding to changing interest rates and economic uncertainty What makes W. P. Carey stand out from its competitors in terms of investment opportunities Watch now An interview with Michael Fitzgerald, W. P. Carey, and Holly Amaya, GlobeSt.com.
Retail's Latest Transformation Has Investors Watching
Retail has been the commercial real estate chameleon, changing and adapting with the times, including the rise of e-commerce and COVID-19. The post-pandemic rebirth of the sector has made major headlines and many retail operators and owners see flying colors. Michael Fitzgerald, executive director and head of US retail investments at W. P. Carey, sees three major trends that sector stakeholders should be watching: the strength of needs-based retail, a development switch favoring sale-leaseback investors and the continued recalibration of buyer-seller expectations. Targets & Tactics “An interesting thing about COVID was how resilient certain areas of retail actually were,” said Fitzgerald. “We saw immediate and sustained growth after that short period of shutdowns.” Non-discretionary, core-good retail including grocery stores and services-based tenants, such as auto services, have been “very strong,” according to Fitzgerald. Low-cost discount stores are a good place to do deals given the economic worries. And family entertainment centers, such as arcades and bowling alleys with full-service restaurants, have seen sustained periods of same-store sales growth and high profitability, benefitting from the post-COVID pent-up consumer demand. “When you’re very flexible, have tons of ability to evaluate business models, take a partnership approach and meet with management teams to understand how they position themselves in the market, you’ll have a lot of good investment options,” said Fitzgerald, who prefers master leases of 15- to 25-year term with escalations every five years. “We can do anything from convenience stores to an automotive service business to grocery and sporting goods. We’re pretty agnostic as to the types of retail we pursue.” Rate Responses As the impact of rising interest rates continues to unfold, Fitzgerald has found that most tenants and retailers are somewhat hesitant to raise their prices so as not to alienate or even “destroy” their customer base. There’s an opportunity to boost profitability, but also a concern about the outcome if companies go down that path and then the economic “switch flips” and customers stop spending. Increased interest rates affect retail development negatively, but Fitzgerald believes a specific shift in that regard that could yield investment opportunity. Retailers planning to grow their footprint have traditionally partnered with merchant developers, but with higher capital costs the latter’s return requirements “have increased significantly” and, in turn, their hiked asking rents have forced retailers to look for alternatives. As a result, retailers are doing more of their own development, whether in-house or through fee developers. “So a lot of these developments will be held on the balance sheet of retail companies, which is good because a lot of companies will likely decide to do sale-leasebacks,” he said. “Given that’s our company’s prime target, we think that’s a good trend to come from the higher rates.” Outlook Fitzgerald maintains that it’s still too early to make a prediction for overall transaction volume in the retail sector in 2023, adding that since last fall cap rate expectations have gone up 45 to 50 basis points in many cases. “What we’re seeing is that retailers that need to grow their footprint and monetize new developments are going to meet the market and are going to do deals,” he said. “If retailers continue to meet the market I think it’ll be a good, active year. If there’s a standoff I think it’s going to be more difficult.”
It's Sale-Leaseback's Time to Shine
The current capital environment has tested the adaptability of many companies, as increasing interest rates have made the cost of capital rise uncomfortably. And while it’s unknown if recent events will calm the Federal Reserve’s zeal for future hikes, some companies are already availing themselves of an alternative capital source: the sale-leaseback. In fact, the transaction type matched its 2019 peak in Q4 of 2021, and there are signs it may not be slowing. Zachary Pasanen, managing director, investments at W. P. Carey, sees two big factors playing into the current interest in sale-leaseback: cheaper cost of capital and extra liquidity during tough times. A Corporate Alternative to Expensive Capital A major concern for corporate real estate holders is reducing the cost of capital for the next several years. As Pasanen notes, while they are “not quite desperate yet, the lag between interest rates and cap rates hadn’t caught up six months ago, but it’s starting to now. Prudent CFOs are looking to maximize capital and a long-term sale-leaseback is a great way to do that.” A sale-leaseback offers a “naturally accretive” alternative funding source. Holders of good, fungible, mission-critical real estate that are willing to sign a long-term lease with market or better rental increases built in will likely find that the underlying rate with which they can monetize those assets is inside the going long-term borrowing rate, according to Pasanen. The 50-year-old REIT’s predominant focus has been on warehousing, specialty manufacturing and food production, but it also delves into the education and retail sectors, the latter ranging from experiential sites to fitness-related products to auto repair locations. “By and large, we’ll look at anything as long as there’s criticality to it, meaning the stuff is made at our subject facilities or there’s a really strong location story to it or rent coverage or just a good real estate fundamental story,” Pasanen says. A Liquidity Solution for Tough Times Another consideration facing corporate real estate owners is having the capital on hand to weather the current economic instability. Rates again become a major problem, especially for companies or properties that might be lower on the credit spectrum. “For companies facing challenges that don’t have the ability to finance at attractive rates it’s a very simple calculus: if your borrowing costs go up that’s going to eat into your profit margins and there are only so many levers you can play with when operating a business,” Pasanen said. “They have to be laser-focused on how to get through this period of instability and unknowns.” Sale-leasebacks appeal here as well, allowing companies to put money back into their core competencies or pay down shorter-term debt that’s gotten more expensive, or perhaps even expand given that acquisition targets may have become cheaper. But Pasanen also notes that W. P. Carey’s sale-leaseback business is not just a capital product for troubled times, whether or not it’s on top of mind for companies and owners. “A sale-leaseback is a good tool in good times and a great tool in really uncertain times,” says Pasanen.
Sail Through Inflationary Headwinds with Net Lease REITs
Experts are sounding the alarm bells regarding an impending recession due to sustained inflation, rising interest rates and conflict in Europe. As a result, some investors are questioning whether their portfolios are resilient enough to weather an economic downturn. For investors seeking a reliable dividend stock to add to their portfolio, one worth considering is a net lease real estate investment trust (REIT). REITs are companies that own or finance different types of properties and net lease specifically refers to the triple-net lease structure, whereby tenants are responsible for paying expenses related to property taxes, insurance and maintenance. Net lease REITs generally own single-tenant properties leased to creditworthy tenants and operate like corporate bonds due to their long-term leases. However, unlike bonds, net lease REITs can grow substantially through a combination of rent increases and external acquisitions, offering both stability and the potential for long-term growth. In today’s volatile market, here are three reasons why investors should consider adding net lease REITs to their portfolio. Stable dividend yields provide long-term income REITs have high and reliable dividend payouts compared to other stocks due to the REIT structure which requires at least 90 percent of taxable income to be distributed to shareholders as dividends. Several REITs have also increased their dividend over time, which has historically outpaced the rate of inflation and provided investors with steadily growing income. Furthermore, REITs can offer long-term capital appreciation through stock price increases, providing investors with total returns comparable, and often higher, than those of other stocks and fixed income investments. This demonstrates that REITs can be an attractive investment option for both income- and growth- focused investors. Contractual rent increases offer hedge against inflation Some net lease REITs provide natural protection against inflation due to contractual rent increases imbedded in their leases. These can be fixed or linked to an inflationary index such as the consumer price index (CPI). CPI-linked rental increases enable REITs, in particular net lease REITs that are not responsible for property management expenses, to directly offset inflation and pass on rising costs to the tenant. Inflation also tends to increase property prices which increases the overall value of a REIT’s portfolio; however, this growth is tempered by a REIT’s increased cost of debt due to rising interest rates. Regardless, these characteristics help protect investor returns against inflationary pressures, adding resiliency to a portfolio. Diversification protects against certain market risks Some net lease REITs offer diversified portfolios of real estate, meaning they invest across a range of property types, geographies and tenant industries. This ensures that no individual tenant, asset type or industry will have an outsized impact on overall performance, insulating investors from individual market risks and offering stability in economic downturns. Net lease REITs also offer diversification compared to other stocks and bonds an investor may own in their portfolio, as real estate is a distinct asset class that has demonstrated low correlation with other sectors of the stock market. In other words, net lease REITs tend to outperform when other assets in a portfolio are struggling, offsetting market volatility. Conclusion When investors are choosing a net lease REIT for their portfolio, it’s important to consider that not all are created equal. Selecting a REIT with an established history and experience performing in all market cycles will ensure investors are protected from adverse impacts, while reaping the benefits of stability and growth over the long term.
Inflation Pumps the Case for Sale-Leasebacks
Money isn't worth as much these days, but it's not getting any cheaper for businesses seeking growth. Facing 40-year-high inflation, the Federal Reserve has gone from 25- to 50- to 75-bp rate increases. Loans may no longer make sense for cash-strapped companies. That said, continued inflation could make a sale-leaseback an attractive alternative, according to Tyler Swann, managing director at W. P. Carey. "A sale-leaseback allows you to lock in your cost of capital for a very long term," says Swann. "If you take the view that interest rates are going to continue to rise, locking in that cost of capital today could be very valuable for you." A sale-leaseback is when a business sells its real estate for cash and leases it back on a long-term basis from the seller. Often, the buyer-landlord is a REIT or other institutional investor that is equipped to make the most out of a real-estate asset. The seller-lessee company, meanwhile, benefits by being able to invest the value of the asset into the business. Swann makes the general case for sale-leasebacks more succinctly: If you're not in the business of real estate, why be in the business of real estate? "It is almost always the case that an owner of a business can earn more on reinvesting money in their business than they can on having that money locked up in real estate," says Swann. "It's more capital-efficient to have that building owned by investors who want to take that risk specifically." This two-way street of capital efficiency is heightened in the inflationary context because of how a business's needs differ from those of an investor. "Because of the Fed's aggressive stance on raising rates, short-term rates are probably going to rise pretty meaningfully in the next six to 12 months," says Swann. "But because the investments that we're making are such long-term investments, we're locking in our returns and borrowing costs for a very long period of time. So we're most focused on what long-term interest rates look like." When considering a sale-leaseback, Swann recommends that would-be seller-lessees consider the property's capitalization rate against such factors as the proposed lease term and rental-increase schedule -- as well as against the market as a whole. In an inflationary environment, this latter juxtaposition can be striking. "If you look at the broader debt markets, particularly high-yield debt markets, they're in very bad shape right now. Interest rates for high-yield debt have skyrocketed recently," says Swann. "And that has made sale-leaseback financing, [where cap rates have] not risen nearly as much, a much more attractive option on a relative basis."
Benefits of Green Leasing for Net Lease REITs
The real estate industry continues to face increased scrutiny regarding climate-related disclosures from many different stakeholders, including investors and regulatory agencies. As the SEC finalizes its proposed rules around these disclosures, the net lease industry is grappling with how to collect and report on climate-related data given the majority of a net lease REIT’s carbon emissions are Scope 3, or indirect. Without any direct control over the operations of their properties, net lease REITs have the added challenge of establishing access to their tenants’ utility data in order to understand the power consumption and potential sustainability opportunities at their properties. One effective approach to improving sustainability and disclosure quality for net lease REITs is through green leasing, in which green clauses are incorporated into leases that encourage landlords and tenants to collaborate on energy efficient and sustainable practices by aligning financial incentives and sustainability goals. Here are three of the most significant benefits of green leasing for net lease REITs: Increases data transparency to help identify a greater number of sustainability opportunities Collecting sustainability-related data has historically been difficult for net lease REITs due to the triple-net lease structure whereby tenants are responsible for the day-to-day operations of the property. However, by implementing a green clause in their leases, landlords can require tenants to disclose electricity, water consumption, waste management and other energy usage data at their properties. This enables net lease REITs to easily collect data and benchmark the energy usage of their portfolio to better identify inefficient buildings and target attractive sustainability opportunities within their portfolio. Incentivizes landlords to invest in green building upgrades There are a number of ways green leasing can support the implementation of projects that reduce a property’s carbon footprint. For example, green leases can include a clause that give landlords the ability to install on-site renewable energy such as solar panels at their properties so long as they can sell power back to the tenant at the same retail electricity rates as the tenant pays a utility company. Furthermore, green leases often include cost-recovery clauses for energy efficiency upgrades which helps solve the “split-incentive problem” – where landlords pay 100% of the capital expense for energy upgrades while only tenants receive the monetary benefits attributed to the decrease in energy consumption. Through a cost-recovery clause, landlords can amortize and recover capital costs for energy efficiency improvements, increasing incentives to pursue these types of projects while still benefiting the tenant through cost savings. Fosters greater tenant-landlord sustainability partnerships Perhaps the biggest benefit of green leasing is the improvement in tenant engagement. Green leases are designed to benefit both tenants and landlords, providing incentive for both parties to partner on sustainability projects including renewable energy opportunities, building energy retrofits and green building certifications. In order to implement a green lease, landlords and tenants must engage in an ongoing dialogue and align on sustainability goals, objectives and opportunities, ultimately strengthening the relationship, enabling tenants to achieve their own sustainability goals and improving the likelihood of tenant renewals. Conclusion Green leasing is a great tool to enable both landlords and tenants to reduce the adverse effect that real estate has on climate change. Particularly for the net lease industry, green leasing can help improve energy data collection, enhance the environmental performance of leased properties and align financial incentives so all parties benefit. It’s a win-win-win for everyone involved – landlords, tenants and most importantly, the environment.
The Institutionalization of Net Lease
The net lease market has become a hunting ground for investors looking for low-maintenance assets and long-term, predictable cash flows. The stability of the asset type during times of uncertainty has attracted attention from new investors – with the net lease share of all commercial real estate investment activity rising 14.7% in 2020. While it has historically not been viewed as one of the major food groups in commercial investments, this perception is changing as more capital continues to flow into the market. What's driving new capital? There are several factors that have contributed to the influx of capital in the net lease space, but the biggest factor is the appeal of long-term stability. With reliable cash flows, triple-net structures and generally longer lease terms, net lease investments are far less volatile than other assets and create predictability in a portfolio. While there was wide discrepancy across the net lease sector during COVID, generally net lease portfolios – particularly industrial and those focused on critical real estate – performed extremely well and delivered high rent collections when compared to other asset types. In addition, recent inflation fears have driven investors toward traditionally inflation-resistant asset classes like real estate, and net lease in particular has been popular in that context. What types of institutions have shown the most interest in the sector? There are several factors that have contributed to the influx of capital in the net lease space, but the biggest factor is the appeal of long-term stability. With reliable cash flows, triple-net structures and generally longer lease terms, net lease investments are far less volatile than other assets and create predictability in a portfolio. While there was wide discrepancy across the net lease sector during COVID, generally net lease portfolios – particularly industrial and those focused on critical real estate – performed extremely well and delivered high rent collections when compared to other asset types. In addition, recent inflation fears have driven investors toward traditionally inflation-resistant asset classes like real estate, and net lease in particular has been popular in that context. What does this mean for corporate sellers? Now remains a great time for corporate sellers to monetize real estate. High investor interest and limited supply is driving cap rates down and prices up, meaning sellers can maximize the value of their assets if they pursue a sale-leaseback now. Supply chain issues have highlighted the importance of industrial properties in particular, resulting in further price appreciation for industrial owners. Since there is an expectation that interest rates will rise next year in response to inflation, corporate owners should take advantage of the sellers’ market and pursue a sale-leaseback sooner rather than later to lock in today’s low rates on a long-term basis. Conclusion Although new entrants entering the net lease space are forcing cap rates down, the overall impact on the market is a net positive. Greater investor interest is also driving down cost of capital accordingly, meaning investors can still accretively do deals at lower cap rates since debt is relatively cheap. In addition, increased visibility of the net lease market lends credence to the asset class as a whole and creates more awareness for net lease and sale-leasebacks among corporate sellers – driving overall deal volume higher. From W. P. Carey’s perspective, 2021 has been a record year for deal volume and we have been able to support many companies in unlocking the value of their real estate and redeploying those proceeds into their core businesses…So bring on the competition!