WPC in the News
Net Lease Investors Adapt as Economic Uncertainty Lingers
Tariffs, interest rate fluctuations and macroeconomic uncertainties continue to reshape the net lease investment market. As these factors evolve, investors are working to make long-term decisions in an uncertain environment. “There’s a lot of volatility, especially around tariffs and trade policy,” says Jason Patterson, executive director of investments at W. P. Carey. “It’s difficult for a CFO or CEO to commit to a 20-year lease when so many of these factors are changing day to day.” This unpredictability has tempered deal volume, but as conditions stabilize, Patterson expects a resurgence in activity later in the year. The Impact of Interest Rate Volatility Interest rates have been a focal point for investors, particularly given their impact on pricing and transaction volumes. While rates have been trending downward recently, the past year has seen continued fluctuations, making it challenging for buyers and sellers to align on pricing expectations. “Investors really track the 10-year US Treasury as a guidepost for risk and pricing,” Patterson says. “The volatility we’ve seen has widened the bid-ask gap in many cases, making it harder for deals to come together.” He notes that as interest rates stabilize, market conditions should improve, leading to increased deal flow. Sale-Leasebacks Still Attractive Alternative to Unlocking Capital Uncertain economic conditions often prompt corporate real estate owners to explore sale-leaseback transactions as a means of unlocking capital. While Patterson hasn’t seen a major uptick yet, he expects that to change as 2025 progresses. “There are early signs of increased sale-leaseback activity,” Patterson says. “While we haven’t seen a huge spike just yet, M&A activity has been improving, and sale-leaseback volume often follows that trend.” He also notes that while uncertainty can sometimes deter companies from making long-term commitments, it can also push them toward alternative capital options, such as sale-leasebacks, to improve liquidity. Preparing for What’s Next With so much uncertainty, investors are focusing on proactive strategies to reduce risk and position themselves for long-term success. According to Patterson, much of this work happens upfront, from structuring leases with protective provisions to ensuring asset selection aligns with long-term needs. “The good thing about net leases is that once you’ve bought a building and signed a lease, there’s an expectation of long-term stability and predictability,” he explains. “The key is making sure those early decisions — such as lease structuring and tenant selection — are as strong as possible.” Active asset management also plays an important role. Maintaining strong relationships with tenants, tracking performance and being flexible with their needs can help investors handle potential challenges in the future. While economic uncertainty continues to persist, investors who remain disciplined and adaptable will be well positioned for success, and Patterson remains optimistic about the net lease market in the months ahead. “I don’t see an impending cliff or major downturn,” he says. “The best approach is to stay informed, track policy changes and make smart, forward-looking decisions.”
Tips for Ensuring a Successful Sale-Leaseback
A “great tool in really uncertain times,” the sale-leaseback can give immediate access to capital and minimize debt market exposure during uneasy economic periods. But for many looking to utilize it, the uncertainty of whether or not a deal will be successful can be a barrier to fully exploring it. Jason Patterson, SVP, investments at W. P. Carey, starts by recommending thorough planning and transparency and careful selection of the buyer and future landlord. “Especially with interest rates being volatile, knowing that your counter-party—the buyer—is experienced and well-capitalized is increasingly important, and will ensure that they show up at the closing table to complete the deal that you bargained for,” he says. Pre-Deal Prep Work Preparation and due diligence are always key in real estate investing, and it’s no different with sale-leasebacks. The seller/future tenant must figure out in advance its economic needs and preferences, including the term, rent level and rent escalators that make sense for the business. “Doing the pre-vetting process upfront on the big economic terms is key,” Patterson says. “Knowing the tenant has thought about and committed to the term and all the key economic points in a lease upfront makes a big difference and prevents the derailing of the process later on when a group might realize they can only do a 15-year lease versus a 20-year one.” Being timely and transparent about potential property issues is also critical to keeping the sale-leaseback deal on track. Whether environmental concerns, title complications or a problem with an old survey, issues will come out during the due diligence process so address them early on. Partnership Essentials: Real Estate to Relationship To enjoy the immediate access to capital, full market-value realization, preservation of operational control and other sale-leaseback benefits, corporate real estate sellers and private equity sponsors must do the deal. That means they must find the right buyer. “The biggest criteria in determining the best sale-leaseback partner is really access to capital and high certainty to close,” Patterson says. “That means finding a buyer who isn’t relying on a third-party financing source and doesn’t employ buying contingencies.” And the finish line isn’t the closing table. A buyer that is experienced in the market and a responsive, reliable landlord over the ensuing long-term lease is invaluable. “Make sure you’re choosing the right party for a long-term relationship,” says Patterson. “It’s great peace of mind knowing you have a landlord you can turn to in situations for flexibility or additional capital.” A strong partnership born of a sale-leaseback emphasizes the relationship versus a mere transaction. One of the resulting benefits for tenants is the ability to do more “bespoke-type” agreements, according to Patterson. Perhaps there’s an existing vendor the business wants to maintain ties with or the tenant has a big project underway on site; the long-term landlord can provide a flexible structure to accommodate. W. P. Carey’s sale-leaseback business has the capital to fund future tenant expansions, build-to-suits, building renovations, energy retrofits and more after the initial deal has been completed.
Net Lease Investors Eye Cross-Border Opportunities and New Property Types in 2025
The net lease market is positioned for change in 2025, with investors monitoring trends in geographic expansion and property types, as well as shifting economic factors. While the US remains a key market for many, international opportunities are gaining ground, particularly in Mexico, as noted by Tyler Swann, managing director of investments at W. P. Carey. “Mexico is a market we’ll be watching closely next year,” says Swann. “We’re seeing more sale-leaseback and build-to-suit opportunities there, particularly as more American and International manufacturers set up shop in the country.” Alongside these international prospects, investors are exploring new property types and preparing for economic factors like ongoing interest rate volatility and tariffs. By keeping an eye on these trends, investors can better position themselves for what’s next, says Swann. Geographic Expansion and Emerging Property Types While the US and Europe remain the cornerstone of net lease investment for W. P. Carey, Swann is monitoring other international markets, such as Mexico and Canada, for growth. “Our largest transaction in 2023 was in Canada,” he says. The country’s interest rates differ from those in the US, and Swann is keeping a close watch on how this impacts market pricing with an eye to expanding further if the opportunity exists. New opportunities in 2025 aren’t limited to geography, Swann notes. Some non-traditional property types are also getting a look from the net lease world. “We’re seeing more activity from net lease investors in the data center world,” says Swann. “Clearly, there’s a need for a tremendous amount of capital to fund the buildout of these new data centers.” However, he adds that W. P. Carey takes a selective approach, focusing on long-term leases to single tenants to ensure returns comparable to the company’s core industrial investments. Healthcare properties, particularly those in prime locations, are also attracting attention. “To the extent that we can find those well-located healthcare assets, I think that‘s something we’ll explore in 2025,” says Swann. Swann sees the key criteria for healthcare investments to be their proximity to population centers with favorable demographic trends and the asset’s importance to the local community. Continued Interest Rate Volatility and an Unpredictable Market As the net lease market heads into 2025, interest rate volatility remains a key concern for investors. Recent fluctuations in long-term Treasury rates have had a direct impact on asset pricing and overall investment strategies. “Long-term financing rates are also critical for how we price assets with long-term leases,” says Swann. “The uncertainty surrounding interest rates is compounded by economic factors, including potential deficit spending and the risks of future inflation.” Looking ahead, investors will need to remain flexible, evaluating opportunities, property types, and the broader economic trends to stay ahead of market shifts. “Interest rate volatility can actually benefit public REITs like W. P. Carey,” Swann notes. “We’re less sensitive to rate movements, which allows us to close deals even in volatile environments.”
What the Latest Rate Cuts Mean for the Net Lease Sector
The persistent high cost of capital, along with the fact that large amounts of corporate debt are set to mature, have been ongoing challenges for investors. The Fed’s recent rate cut – the first in over four years – leaves many speculating how investors will fare. “Impacts from these changes will take some time to see,” says Zachary Pasanen, managing director, investments, at W. P. Carey. “I don’t necessarily believe we’ll experience a rush of investment overnight. Everyone is still in the process of figuring out what the environment will look like, and there are also geopolitical situations at play.” Cap Rates and Market Sentiment Pasanen suggests a positive outlook for the net lease sector, noting that while volumes are down compared to the previous year, the sector’s resilience remains. He explains that net lease investments function similarly to bond instruments, and with rates being cut, he doesn’t believe the risk profile changes that dramatically. “I think the risk paradigm is still very much in that 7%-8% cap range,” says Pasanen, noting that while conditions may eventually spur more net lease activity, it won’t take place immediately. He also cautions that investors should not get too caught up in “rate cut mania” and risk comprising spread. Focusing on fundamentals and maintaining a disciplined investment approach remain as important as ever. Relaxed Interest Rates and the Financing Landscape Funding business growth and quickly accessing capital have left many corporates looking for alternatives to traditional financing. With the Fed’s recent rate cut, Pasanen believes that sale-leasebacks will continue to be an attractive option. He further notes that while there have been pockets of “stress” in the market, these aren’t the same as “distress.” “Many lenders were willing to accommodate borrowers and work with them,” says Pasanen. “This group made it through this past year and is saying, ‘Okay, I’ve extended the maturity of my debt and identified some dislocation among acquisition targets, and now might be a good time to raise capital and grow my business.’” However, as these businesses return to banks to raise more capital, financial institutions may have reached a limit in how much they can help, a scenario where sale-leasebacks can be beneficial. “W. P. Carey has been in business for over 50 years,” says Pasanen. “We’ve been through numerous market cycles and have a lot of capital to deploy. As the market recalibrates, we’ll continue to do what we do best – work with corporate owners to unlock the value of their real estate through sale-leasebacks.”
Keeping Up with Industrial in a ‘Wildcard’ Year
Uncertainty around interest rates, slowed transactional volumes, and a future of unknowns has left investors in the industrial sector watching trends closely. “This year has been a bit of a wildcard,” says Jason Patterson, senior vice president of investments at W. P. Carey. “People constantly speculate about what the future holds regarding interest rates, and we also saw a bit of softening on the lease demand side at the end of 2023.” As uncertainty persists, understanding a few key trends can help the industrial sector track what’s next as it moves closer to a new normal. Cost of Capital Challenges Persist As 2024 began, forecasts predicted multiple interest rate cuts; however, the Fed has held rates unchanged to date. Recently, it adjusted the previous forecast from three expected rate cuts in 2024 to one, against the backdrop of persistent inflationary concerns. Volatility around rates has also led to investor hesitancy in making long-term commitments, further impacting transaction volumes. “There is also a long and continuous trend toward e-commerce,” says Patterson. “In the near term, there has been a bit of volatility due to overbuilding in certain markets, and there is a bit more vacancy that needs to be absorbed. These shorter blips are relative to what seems to be a long-term trend toward higher value in industrial real estate.” Despite ongoing challenges, opportunities still exist for the industrial market, and understanding some existing tailwinds can help investors capitalize on these. Shift to Onshoring Onshoring is a continued tailwind for the industrial sector, especially on the manufacturing side according to Patterson. “It seems there is bipartisan agreement around a movement to onshore, as sentiments trend toward increased American manufacturing.” Upticks in high-tech chip manufacturing and transitioning the auto fleet to electric are also drivers of long-term industrial demand, says Patterson. While electric cars accounted for only 2% of vehicles in 2018, that number jumped to roughly 18% of all vehicles sold in 2023. A push toward more sustainable vehicle technologies could further drive long-term industrial demand, but Patterson cautions that continued growth could depend on the outcome of the election. Strategic Positioning and Access to Capital When operating in a market with many unknowns, a good place to start is focusing on what’s within your control, suggests Patterson. “Factors such as interest rates are out of the hands of most folks,” says Patterson. “We focus on sticking to our competitive advantage, which is underwriting sub-investment-grade long-term lease opportunities.” Agility is also key, as is working with partners who can support the market’s need for increased flexibility. According to Patterson, “This is a time when having a reputation for strong performance and access to capital is very valuable. At W. P. Carey, we are well positioned to execute with significant liquidity and capital, enabling us to be nimble in the current environment.”
‘We’re Bullish On Net Lease Retail’
Investors are flocking to the net lease sector anew as the Fed pauses its rate actions and cap rates stabilize, W. P. Carey’s Michael Fitzgerald told GlobeSt. GlobeSt's Holly Amaya spoke with Fitzgerald at ICSC Las Vegas about the state of retail net lease and what has changed in the sector from last year. In this video, you’ll learn: Why he continues to be bullish on net lease retail, What an increase in cap rates has meant for investment, and How the sector will fare in 2024 and beyond. Watch now An interview with Michael Fitzgerald, W. P. Carey, and Holly Amaya, GlobeSt.com.
Navigating Net Lease Retail
Rising interest rates, increased cap rates, and sluggish deal activity created changes in the retail market over the past couple of years. Indeed, the bid-ask spread left many retail net lease deals stuck in negotiations. “There was a time when buyers and sellers found themselves pretty far apart, trying to find a way to meet in the middle,” says Michael Fitzgerald, executive director and head of US retail at W. P. Carey. “During 2023, we saw volume slowdowns of traditionally marketed sale-leaseback deals, as some sectors experienced 50, 75, or even 80 basis point increases in cap rates.” However, at the start of 2024, Fitzgerald notes that he’s seen a stable flow of developer-fueled deals and a higher demand for liquidity. As the market progresses into 2024 and beyond, understanding its direction can help investors make more strategic decisions. Low vacancy rates, creating new opportunities A recent report found that retail vacancy rates are at their lowest level in two decades, as rents continue to rise. The report compared 390 retail marketers across the United States and found that the national retail vacancy rate sat at just 4%. According to Fitzgerald, low vacancy rates are a positive sign that provides confidence in long-term leases and the ability to quickly replace tenants. “Let’s say a fitness operator signs a 20-year lease,” says Fitzgerald. “If retail vacancies are low, that’s a positive for us if we need to re-tenant, as we can likely replace them with a new tenant at or above the original price without compromising our income stream.” He explains that W. P. Carey typically focuses on finding deals in markets with growing rents, such as Phoenix, versus smaller and less vibrant markets. “When you get into underwriting situations where vacancy rates are low, it often allows us to get more aggressive with the cap rate and other deal terms,” says Fitzgerald. Looking into 2025 and beyond Another factor that could contribute to an uptick in activity is merger and acquisition deals. An increase in M&A typically corresponds to an uptick in sale-leaseback activity, as firms leverage proceeds as part of the capital stack for new acquisitions. Overall, Fitzgerald remains optimistic about the coming months. “I think the retail market will continue to be strong because there’s always compelling fundamental reasons why retailers want to sell their real estate rather than hold it,” says Fitzgerald. He explains that it comes down to retailers not being real estate companies. Businesses can generate better returns for investors by investing in their core competencies, ie. running retail operations, and often find holding onto real estate is a drag on their cash and liquidity. As a result, he predicts continued demand from retailers for creative ways to access that liquidity – such as sale-leasebacks.
How Sale-Leasebacks Help PE Raise Capital in a Tight Market
Funding for growth, refinancing corporate debt, and merger and acquisition activities are top priorities for many private equity firms. A recent PwC report noted that 60% of CEOs plan to make at least one acquisition in the next three years. The report further explains that lower levels of M&A activity during 2023 created “pent-up buyer demand” moving into the current year. However, tapping into capital isn’t always easy when it is locked in assets. “It’s quite inefficient for private equity firms to have capital tied up in real estate assets that aren’t earning for them,” says Tyler Swann, managing director, investments at W. P. Carey. “An alternative is doing a sale-leaseback, which provides a much lower cost of accessing capital than traditional financing methods.” Understanding sale-leasebacks and their advantages can help private equity firms strategically manage growth funding, debt maturities and other capital needs. The advantages of sale-leasebacks With traditional financing strategies such as mortgages, terms are often shorter and exposed to higher market volatility. Accessing capital can also be time-consuming, a challenge for firms that need to move quickly for acquisition deals. That’s not the case with sale-leasebacks, notes Swann. “Sale-leasebacks are very flexible,” says Swann. “The processing time can be as short as 30 to 45 days between the initial call and the actual funding. It’s not unusual for us to get a call from a private equity firm saying, ‘We’re closing on a business in 30 days; can you be there to close with us as acquisition financing?’ And that’s something we can do.” He explains that capital uses also have very few restrictions, with the most common purposes being acquisition financing, dividend payments, and refinancing maturing debt. Misconceptions about sale-leasebacks As private equity firms consider sale-leasebacks, questions often linger regarding who qualifies for this type of financing. Many believe that because their real estate is in a secondary or tertiary market, or their asset doesn’t have a huge value, they won’t qualify. But according to Swann, that’s not necessarily true. “If you have a specialized manufacturing facility in a small market, you may think it won’t qualify because it’s not a high-quality warehouse in a market like Southern California,” says Swann. “Despite where an asset is located, if it’s profitable and contributing to the bottom line of a business, it could be a great candidate for a sale-leaseback.” As the market progresses through 2024, Swann expects sale-leaseback activity to continue upward, partly due to M&A activity and its flexibility to tap into capital quickly. “Every year, sale-leasebacks become a little more accepted in the private equity community as a source of financing,” says W. P. Carey’s Swann. “Ten or 20 years ago, corporate debt was by far the dominant option, but we continue to see an increase in sale-leaseback deals every year.”
Where Will Net Lease Go in 2024?
In 2023, higher debt costs, a looming $2 trillion-plus wave of corporate debt coming due and other economic uncertainty have clouded the CRE outlook. And while the net lease sector, with its low risk and steady income, has weathered recent economic headwinds better than most, it’s not immune. Execution uncertainty was a central theme in 2023, reports Zachary Pasanen, managing director, investments at W. P. Carey. “With the ramp-up in interest rates, buyers and sellers have struggled to meet at a price that made sense,” he says, noting that a lot of deals after the first quarter had repricing challenges or re-trade concerns. In a competitive market, those who rely on debt financing have been constrained by higher rates. Investors, however, are still seeing cap rate expansion within certain sectors. Shifting Rates & Fundamentals With deals more difficult to come by, investors have re-focused on fundamentals. Pasanen notes that, with industrial, this has meant a refocus on rent growth and the assets “criticality.” There remains good demand for industrial assets, but investors should realize the changing fundamentals of the sector: it is no longer the “darling” product, attracting unlimited cheap capital in pursuit of properties requiring lower capex. Pasanen uses the word “retrenchment” for the asset class as people are getting smarter with rent growth projections following their internal modeling. “With the sector still offering a lot of attractive elements, there is no desire to move out of the sector,” he says. “Unlike office, we view industrial, particularly manufacturing, as profit centers: it’s where the widgets are made. We focus on good, underlying fundamentals but also where there’s criticality in the real estate.” The sudden shift in rates has caused a break in investor expectations, Pasanen says, with one-off, syndicators or family offices still pursuing at compressed numbers. Meanwhile, institutional investors are focusing on tenant credits and cap rates at 8% and higher. Outlook Pasanen notes there’s opportunity in sale-leasebacks for companies looking to raise capital. He says W. P. Carey has a successful history here, taking the time to understand a business to ensure they will be a good investment for the long haul. “No one has a perfect crystal ball, but we try our best and we've got a long history of underwriting credits that are sub-investment grade in nature, and we have a good track record in doing so.” Market expectations are leaning toward interest rate cuts in 2024, an outlook reaffirmed by the Fed’s latest announcement on December 13. Smart investors, however, should prepare for all situations and also have contingency plans for a long pause or even a rate hike if inflation kicks up again. With inflation and increasing interest rates making borrowing more expensive, will CFOs and fund managers continue to strategize on how to recalibrate their business and find that new normal? “I think it will actually be a big year in 2024,” he says. “The rise in interest rates happened quickly so if we have a long pause [on rate movement] the deal environment should become more normalized. When the behavioral element settles in we’ll see more normal investment activity.”