How E-Commerce Is Shaping Supply Chains and Driving Demand for Logistics Real Estate
Companies are rethinking fulfillment networks, strengthening supply chain resilience and investing in logistics infrastructure built for a digital-first economy
While the pandemic-era surge in online shopping has moderated, e-commerce remains one of the most powerful forces influencing logistics real estate. Consumer purchasing habits have fundamentally changed, with digital channels now firmly embedded in how people shop. As retailers, manufacturers and logistics providers adapt to rising expectations for speed, convenience and flexibility, the need for modern fulfillment infrastructure continues to expand.
The result is a logistics landscape that is becoming increasingly sophisticated, with occupiers reevaluating distribution networks to better serve a digital-first economy.
Logistics Has Become Critical to the E-Commerce Experience
E-commerce has matured from a fast-growing retail channel into a foundational component of global commerce. According to a recent McKinsey survey, 57% of consumers rank digital as their primary purchasing channel—almost double the level reported in 2022.
For retailers, this shift has significant supply chain implications. Fulfillment networks are being redesigned to support broader product assortments, deeper inventory levels, direct-to-consumer shipping, returns processing, and value-added services such as product assembly and customization.
Real estate strategy is also becoming more closely tied to service levels. Facilities positioned near major population centers can help shorten delivery windows and improve the efficiency of last-mile logistics—the final stage of the delivery process, when goods move from a distribution facility to the end customer. As consumers continue to expect faster, more reliable delivery, this part of the supply chain has become a key competitive differentiator.
Nearshoring Is Providing an Additional Tailwind
Companies are increasingly pursuing nearshoring and onshoring initiatives to improve supply chain resilience, reduce transportation costs and bring production closer to end markets. These strategies gained momentum following years of supply chain disruptions and continue to be influenced by evolving trade policies and geopolitical considerations.
Unlike last-mile strategies, which focus on the final movement of goods, nearshoring is reshaping the upstream side of the supply chain. By moving production closer to end markets, companies can improve operational control, reduce exposure to disruption and better align inventory with customer demand.
In the U.S., changes in foreign trade policies and tariff structures have further encouraged companies to diversify sourcing strategies and establish a stronger domestic presence. Cross-border e-commerce companies, in particular, are expanding their U.S. logistics footprints to help future-proof operations amid potential regulatory changes.
As new manufacturing facilities come online, the need for supporting warehouse, distribution and transportation infrastructure is expected to increase, creating additional opportunities within industrial and logistics real estate.
A New Era for Logistics Real Estate
It’s projected that U.S. e-commerce penetration—the percentage of total retail sales that occurs online—will rise from approximately 24% in 2025 to 30% by 2030. This growth has meaningful implications for logistics real estate demand, as every one percentage-point increase in e-commerce's share of retail sales translates into approximately 50 million to 70 million square feet of industrial space absorption.
Beyond sheer volume growth, e-commerce is also changing the type of industrial and logistics space occupiers require. To support greater supply chain flexibility, companies are increasingly seeking modern facilities with higher clear heights, advanced automation capabilities and strong transportation connectivity.
Looking Ahead
E-commerce is no longer just changing how consumers shop—it is reshaping how companies build, operate and future-proof their supply chains. Well-located, modern facilities with the flexibility to support evolving distribution strategies are likely to remain in high demand, underscoring the long-term value of logistics assets in a digital-first economy.
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Is the Net Lease Industrial Market Still "Red Hot"?
The single-tenant net lease industrial market has been on fire in recent years. Buoyed by e-commerce growth, industrial properties were seeing record low cap rates and record high competition from investors following the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the sector has not been immune to recent macro-economic volatility. Search -In fact, quarterly transaction volume fell more than 46 percent in the first quarter of 2023, making it the slowest quarter reported by the net lease industrial sector since mid-2017. Does this mean that the industrial market is losing its steam? While some investors are waiting on the sidelines, trends including onshoring, supply/demand dynamics and rising interest in sale-leasebacks will help bolster the industrial market in the long term. Here’s why: Impact of onshoring Supply chain issues during the pandemic have been a major catalyst for onshoring in the industrial market. Having manufacturing facilities overseas meant accessibility was limited (or in some cases, completely restricted), which had a major impact on companies’ ability to get their product to consumers. As a result, more companies have focused on bringing their facilities back to the U.S., which has only been supported by lower labor-related costs, better automation technology and an accessible highway and interstate system. Technology companies have largely been leading the onshoring charge, with companies like Intel, Micron and Texas Instruments committing to building large manufacturing plants in the U.S. This has led to a steady rise in demand for warehouse and industrial spaces from U.S. companies, with notable growth seen in the Southeast. Supply/demand dynamics After several years of growth post-COVID, warehouse construction is on the decline due to higher interest rates, a slower economy and Amazon’s reduced spend on new facilities for 2023. 6,700 warehouses are expected to be built in 2023, a 35% reduction compared to the 10,000 built in 2022. Despite this, e-commerce growth is expected to keep demand for warehouse space strong, with rents anticipated to increase over the next year. The good news for investors is that cap rates are also on the rise – Search -up 35 basis points from record lows in 2022. As the buyer-seller price gap continues to close, more investors will likely jump back into the market, strengthening transaction volume in 2024. Uptick in sale-leaseback interest The volatility in the capital markets environment has certainly been challenging for companies, with cost of capital rising considerably given increasing interest rates. Alternative forms of financing such as sale-leasebacks have come to the forefront as companies look for ways to unlock capital. Sale-leasebacks offer a “naturally accretive” funding source, particularly for companies that own fungible, mission-critical real estate and are willing to sign a long-term lease. Industrial facilities have inherent criticality which makes them uniquely attractive to investors, making owners of these types of facilities great candidates for sale-leasebacks. While inflation is starting to cool, experts predict that the Fed won’t start cutting interest rates until 2024, which will encourage more industrial companies to pursue a sale-leaseback. With more opportunities likely coming to market and investors poised to execute (particularly all-equity buyers), we believe industrial will maintain its position as the “darling” of net lease for the foreseeable future.
The Appeal of Industrial Sale-leaseback Transactions
Let’s start with the foundation: if you’re unfamiliar with the term sale-leaseback, you should go here. For a more focused explanation relating to industrial properties, let’s turn to Erik Foster, principal with Avison Young and head of the firm’s industrial capital markets practice. “A sale-leaseback is when a user of real estate who owns their premises chooses to monetize that real estate. They stay in [the property], occupy it for a long term and sell it to a third-party owner who becomes the landlord, and the occupier becomes a tenant,” Foster told LoopNet. According to Foster, sale-leaseback transactions for industrial assets have been surging over the past several years, with interest in North American industrial properties emanating from across the world. “It’s truly become a global marketplace,” Foster said. This interest in industrial real estate is neither new nor particularly surprising. As Foster noted, the sector has been experiencing record low vacancies amid historic levels of investment activity. And these factors, which have intensified during the pandemic, have created what Foster described as “a very exuberant investment atmosphere.” And industrial users are increasingly taking note of this enthusiasm. Historically, industrial users have been more apt to own their facilities than their office or retail counterparts. Where most office and retail properties are typically developed with the expectation that multiple tenants will occupy the property, some types of industrial properties are more commonly utilized by a single user. Moreover, industrial properties are often heavily customized to meet the manufacturing or specialized logistical requirements of a particular business. But industrial users are beginning to realize that they may be able to possess their proverbial cake and consume it too. “Industrial users are finding that they can reap the rewards of the sale of their building at record pricing, but still maintain occupancy and the use, so nothing really changes for them,” Foster said. Of course, few things in commercial real estate are without caveats. To gain a better understanding of the industrial sale-leaseback phenomenon, LoopNet spoke with Foster — as well as Gino Sabatini, head of investments and managing director of W. P. Carey — and they walked us through the attributes and challenges of this process for both users and investors. An Opportunity for Industrial Users to Acquire Capital and Flexibility According to Foster, for the industrial user, most of the advantages of a sale-leaseback transaction can be reduced to two concepts: working capital and flexibility. Foster noted that most industrial users that own their property have some kind of financing tied to the building. Perhaps they have a loan that represents 50%, or even 60% or 70% of the building’s appraised value. This loan provides them with operating capital to reinvest into the business — for the purchase of equipment or materials, for instance. Through a sale-leaseback transaction, a user can derive 100% of the value of their property, and reallocate that capital to other aspects of their business. Depending on the company’s accounting structure, this could vastly improve their balance sheet. “You can pay down debt, you can reinvest into your business,” Foster said. Meanwhile, the company in question retains use of the asset. The user “gets a ton of capital out of the real estate and continues to use [the real estate] the way they always have,” Foster added. The industrial user also enhances their flexibility in the process, trading their real estate asset for “a leasehold obligation. It’s not an illiquid asset,” Foster said. Between record-setting industrial investment activity and equally historic low interest rates, this can seem like the ideal moment for industrial users to relinquish ownership of their facilities. “W.P. Carey, and most other sale-leaseback and net-lease buyers, operate on a spread over interest rates,” Sabatini said. This means that as interest rates potentially rise in the near(ish) future, cap rates could climb alongside them. Currently, Sabatini said that cap rates range from 4% to 7%, depending on the location and nature of the facility (more on that in a moment). Foster said that he was even “hearing about sub-3% cap rates on the coasts.” All of these factors may make an industrial sale-leaseback transaction seem like a “best of both worlds” scenario for the user, but it’s not quite that simple. For one thing, as most industrial users are typically real estate novices, they need to make sure they carefully consider all potential suitors. “The user needs to make sure that they don’t talk to the first person that knocks on the door,” Foster said. According to Foster, taking the property through a traditional investment sales process generally garners terms that are more beneficial to the user — both for the sale and the subsequent lease. “When we go out and we make a market for assets like this, we’re amazed at how the terms continue to become better as we work through the process. Foster mentioned that it’s also important to find the right investor match for each particular industrial user. “Sometimes this is their only location and its critical to the [tenant/seller], so having an owner who doesn’t have any forethought or care about the user is an issue too, so you’ve just got to find the right match.” Industrial users also need to be comfortable with the control they’re surrendering by entering into a sale-leaseback transaction. For users that are accustomed to having sole authority over their premises, that adjustment could potentially be challenging. And, as frenetic as the industrial sales market is at the moment, there are reasons to believe that prices could continue to rise. “With the shortages in the commodities markets and the difficulty in getting steel and lumber and other materials, there’s a bit of a governor on the amount of development that can happen. So, the supply of assets is also muted, which is continuing to drive scarcity pricing,” Foster said. Ultimately, the viability of a sale-leaseback transaction for an industrial user will come down to that particular company’s priorities and whether they value working capital and flexibility over control and security. For investors, the calculus is a bit more fraught with risk, but potentially equally rewarding. Conducting Due Diligence on an Industrial Sale-Leaseback Opportunity It’s probably fair to say that W.P. Carey has more experience in industrial sale-leasebacks than any other property owner; after all, that’s been the firm’s primary focus since it was founded in 1973. As Sabatini described it, “Sale-leasebacks of industrial buildings for sub-investment grade companies is really our bread and butter.” When LoopNet asked what made these investments so appealing to W.P. Carey, Sabatini explained, “The facilities are often very critical to the company that is doing the sale-leaseback, and that’s very important for us; because we’re a long-term holder and we want to own something that the company is planning on using for a long period of time.” In an ideal scenario, Carey [Note: have requested that they change to Sabatini] said that W.P. Carey’s investment thesis is relatively simple. “We’re making a bet alongside the equity investors in that company that the company is going to be successful for a long period of time. If we’re correct, then we’ll collect rent for a 15- or 20-year primary lease term for starters, and potentially [execute] renewals as well.” But what happens if they're wrong? According to Sabatini, that depends largely on the market and asset in question. A highly customized property, one that will be challenging to adapt for a new tenant — such as a food or biotech manufacturing facility — represents a greater risk than a relatively generic property, like a last-mile fulfillment center. That risk expands in smaller markets and is somewhat ameliorated in larger markets. In terms of how Sabatini approaches the due diligence process, he said that the first portion of his methodology involves elements that are fairly consistent across any real estate asset class or deal type. He advised that prospective investors commission an environmental phase I study (and a phase II study if the initial report reveals any areas for concern); have an engineer walk the property to appraise its structural integrity; and review the property survey and title. “Make sure you’re purchasing a clean piece of real estate,” Sabatini said. After that, you need to undertake what Sabatini says is often the more challenging facet of the process: reviewing the company who will first sell you the property and then become your tenant. Sabatini likens this phase of due diligence to the process credit organizations like Moody’s undertake when they’re rating companies. “You try to understand the industry, the company’s position within it, as well as any threats to either the company or the industry,” he said. “You really need to dig into the credit and understand why the building is important to the company, and what the company’s financial prospects are in the short-term, the medium-term and the long-term.” Sabatini also said that it’s important to carefully review the company’s balance sheet. Specifically, you should assess their attitude towards leverage and how they have fared during downturns. As this process illustrates, in many respects a sale-leaseback transaction isn’t a simple real estate deal; it’s more analogous to the creation of a (hopefully) long-term, mutually beneficial partnership.
The Outlook for Industrial
The industrial real estate sector continues to stand out as a resilient and adaptive asset class, even amid economic uncertainty and shifting global dynamics. As we move through 2025, several dominant trends are shaping the trajectory of the market—from a fundamental shift in global supply chains to rising sustainability expectations, technological advancements and recalibration of capital strategies. Here’s a look at what’s driving the market: Onshoring and Supply Chain Reconfiguration The reshoring of manufacturing and logistics operations is no longer a speculative trend—it’s a structural shift. Spurred by pandemic-era supply chain disruptions and ongoing tariff concerns, companies are doubling down on operational resilience. This has led to a surge in demand for modern industrial space in inland and secondary markets, particularly near major highway corridors and intermodal hubs. This shift is putting pressure on developers to deliver new inventory quickly, even as construction costs and permitting timelines remain elevated. In particular, industrial locations in non-coastal metros are seeing increased activity as firms diversify away from traditional port-adjacent markets. Demand for Sustainable Real Estate Sustainability is no longer a “nice to have”—it’s a core tenant demand. Industrial occupiers are increasingly seeking energy-efficient, environmentally responsible facilities that align with their business goals and lower operational costs. This includes buildings equipped with solar-ready rooftops, LED lighting, EV charging infrastructure and LEED certifications. The push for greener buildings is also being driven by investors, who are factoring sustainability into underwriting and long-term asset value. Sustainable assets typically observe higher value in the market and are likely to lease up faster. Advancements in Technology From AI-enabled automation to smart building systems and robotics, technology is revolutionizing industrial and warehouse properties. In fact, more than a quarter of U.S. warehouse inventory is expected to be automated by 2027. Industrial occupiers leverage automation to create a more efficient process for moving products through their facilities, speeding up order fulfillment and improving inventory management. Properties equipped with automation and robust digital infrastructure are also typically viewed as “future proof,” making them more attractive to investors over the long term. Capital Markets and the Rise of Sale-Leasebacks Tariff concerns, economic volatility and tightened liquidity are prompting many corporate occupiers to turn toward alternative sources of capital, such as sale-leasebacks. This trend is especially pronounced in the industrial sector due to the strong investment profiles of these assets. The primary benefit of a sale-leaseback is the ability to immediately convert an illiquid real estate asset into liquid capital to meet both short- and long-term needs. Sale-leasebacks can also help boost a company’s balance sheet by putting them in a better cash position and improving their debt-to-equity ratio, enabling them to secure more attractive debt financing in the future should they need it. The Future is Bright Despite short-term headwinds such as tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainty, the industrial real estate market in 2025 is defined by transformation and opportunity. Onshoring is redrawing the logistics map, sustainability is reshaping development, technology is boosting efficiency and output, and capital markets are evolving to meet new financial realities. For stakeholders across the supply chain—from developers and investors to tenants and brokers—understanding these trends, and opportunities, is essential for navigating the road ahead.