Corporate Capital Outlook - Q1 2023
This report covers detailed updates about the global economy, corporate debt capital markets and European net lease transactions
"The first quarter of 2023 saw significant financial events continuing to cause stress in financial markets, with the Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and Credit Suisse's emergency takeover major contributors. Expected to compound the issue, there is over $2.5tn in commercial real estate debt which will mature in the next five years, with smaller regional U.S. banks holding 70% of outstanding loans to the CRE sector. Rising interest rates and reduced sales volumes will likely cause further defaults in the CRE and banking sector, but overall the global financial system is less exposed compared to the 2008 crash.
Q1 2023 experienced the lowest volume of corporate net lease transactions for the past 3 years. The most popular asset class continues to be industrial & logistics followed by office. Despite the sharp rise in European base rates, we have not necessarily seen the mirror image in real estate yields.
Written by Colliers Corporate Capital Solutions, the report details the current state of the global economy and capital markets and how that’s impacting the net lease sector. The report also features contributed content from Christopher Mertlitz, Head of European Investments at W. P. Carey, on how corporates can leverage real estate to unlock capital on attractive terms while the debt markets are in flux. Download below to read the full report.
Download the report:
Related Topics:
You May Also Like:
Forging Long-term Partnerships Through Tenant-centered Real Estate Solutions
At W. P. Carey, we view real estate as a long‑term partnership — not a one‑time transaction. We stay closely connected with our tenants, aligning our capital and real estate expertise with the evolving needs of their businesses. That philosophy is embedded in Carey Tenant Solutions, our platform designed to support tenant growth beyond the initial acquisition. Through follow‑on investments, we help tenants modernize, expand, redevelop, relocate and improve the energy efficiency of their facilities — allowing them to focus capital on what matters most: running and scaling their core business. Below is an overview of the core capabilities within Carey Tenant Solutions and how each can benefit existing and prospective tenants. Build-to-suits In a build‑to‑suit, W. P. Carey funds and manages the construction of a new facility — or the expansion of an existing one — tailored to the precise specifications of a prospective or existing tenant. Upon completion, the tenant enters into a long‑term net lease while retaining full operational control of the new or expanded facility. We offer two flexible approaches to build‑to‑suits: Build-to-suit financing: We provide construction capital while the tenant’s developer executes the project, either through traditional construction financing funded over time or via take‑out financing upon completion. Turnkey build-to-suit: We finance and manage the entire construction process, from site selection to final delivery. For tenants, the primary advantage of a build‑to‑suit is capital efficiency. Rather than tying up their capital in real estate, tenants can redeploy resources toward growth initiatives, innovation or strengthening operations — while still gaining a facility designed specifically for their needs. Learn how this approach helped support our tenant Cuisine Solutions’ growth. Redevelopments W. P. Carey offers comprehensive redevelopment capabilities, managing projects from initial design through delivery. Combining our internal development expertise and long‑standing relationships with leading architects, consultants and contractors, we assemble experienced teams capable of executing even the most complex redevelopment projects. Our redevelopment capabilities span: Repositionings, where we upgrade, modernize or expand an existing building while maintaining its core use. Redevelopments, which involve unlocking value of infill locations through adaptive reuse and ground up construction of state-of-the-art, primarily industrial, properties that meet the demands of modern occupiers. W. P. Carey’s turnkey redevelopment process is comprehensive and includes: Pre-construction planning and optimization Development feasibility and due diligence Zoning and entitlement approvals Design and permitting Budgeting and scheduling Construction management Creative lease structures Sustainable development Overall efficiency Our proactive approach allows us to work directly with incoming tenants to shape a property around their exact operational requirements, while enhancing the quality of our portfolio by retaining the best positioned assets in the highest barrier-to-entry locations. Learn more about our carbon-neutral redevelopment of a Class-A warehouse for a global IT services company. Energy Solutions Through Carey Tenant Solutions, we also help tenants reduce operating costs and advance their sustainability goals by designing, funding and implementing renewable power and energy efficiency projects directly at their facilities. We believe that improving the quality and sustainability of our assets delivers tangible benefits across our portfolio — increasing renewal probabilities, strengthening tenant relationships and enhancing long‑term asset value – all while helping our tenants reduce their carbon footprint. Our energy solutions include: On‑site renewables, including CareySolar® Efficiency retrofits, such as LED lighting upgrades Smart building technologies, including IoT‑enabled metering Green infrastructure, such as EV charging stations and battery storage Carbon‑neutral construction By integrating these solutions into our long‑term ownership strategy, we help tenants operate more efficiently today while building assets that are better positioned for the future. Read how we collaborated with our tenant, a healthcare products distributor, to fund a rooftop solar installation. A Platform Built on Partnership Collaboration with our tenants — and support beyond the initial transaction — has always been core to how we operate at W. P. Carey. With Carey Tenant Solutions, we have formalized and unified those capabilities, bringing decades of experience together under a single platform to deliver one of the most comprehensive tenant service offerings in the net lease industry. Interested in exploring Carey Tenant Solutions? Get in touch today.
2026 Net Lease Outlook
After several years marked by inflation, interest rate uncertainty and selective buyer activity, the U.S. net lease market enters 2026 with more clarity – and more momentum. As pricing resets work through the real estate sector and investors gain confidence in the direction of capital markets, we expect an increase in transaction volume in the year ahead. Below are three predictions set to shape the U.S. net lease landscape in 2026. Transaction Volume Will Rebound as Pricing Stabilizes The reset in valuations throughout 2024 and 2025 has narrowed bid‑ask spreads and revived buyer activity. As the sector digested Fed policy shifts and debt markets steadied, transaction activity began increasing meaningfully – particularly in industrial and logistics. As a result, we expect a measurable uptick in volume in 2026 as investors lean into improved cost‑of‑capital visibility. Colliers forecasts that U.S. CRE transaction volume will grow 15–20% in 2026. Industrial Will Continue to Dominate Industrial demand is positioned to remain strong in 2026. As trade‑policy uncertainty eased in late 2025, many companies who had paused expansion or relocation decisions finally moved forward, bringing a wave of leasing activity that is carrying into the new year. E‑commerce also continues to be a powerful structural driver, underpinning robust leasing demand as retailers and logistics operators expand fulfillment capacity to meet consumer needs. At the same time, development pipelines have slowed, allowing the market to work through new supply. As a result, vacancy is expected to stabilize in 2026, reinforcing a fundamentally balanced environment for investors and occupiers alike. Rising M&A Activity Will Drive New Sale‑Leaseback Opportunities An anticipated rise in M&A activity will likely fuel an increase in sale‑leaseback opportunities in 2026. Private equity firms often use sale-leasebacks to reduce upfront equity requirements and enhance returns when acquiring a new business, especially in deals where real estate represents a meaningful share of the purchase price. On the post-acquisition side, sale-leasebacks can offer PE firms considerable financial flexibility, supporting reinvestment into the portfolio company’s business or even future follow-on acquisitions. Altogether, the anticipated surge in M&A is expected to expand the pipeline of high‑quality real estate coming to market, providing ample opportunity for sale-leaseback investors. Final Thoughts As 2026 unfolds, the U.S. net lease market is entering a period of renewed stability and opportunity. With transaction volumes rebounding, industrial demand holding firm and sale-leaseback activity accelerating alongside M&A trends, investors have multiple avenues to deploy capital strategically. Staying attuned to these drivers will be essential for navigating the year ahead.
From Volatility to Resilience: Net Lease Real Estate in 2025
2025 marked a turning point for the net lease real estate market, driven by three defining trends: interest rate relief, cap rate stabilization and an increased focus on mission-critical assets. Together, these forces shaped real estate investor strategies and helped restore confidence in the market. Here’s an overview of each: Interest Rate Relief Sparked Market Activity The Federal Reserve’s late-2024 rate cuts reignited momentum across the market. Lower borrowing costs helped narrow the bid-ask spread, unlocking deal flow that had stalled during the Fed’s tightening cycle. Transaction volumes rebounded as investors who had been sidelined re-entered the market, eager to capitalize on improved financing conditions. For the year ending in Q3 2025, net lease investment volume increased by 24% to $48.1 billion from the same period a year ago. This shift underscored how quickly sentiment can turn when capital becomes more accessible. Cap Rates Found Their Balance After two years of steady increases, cap rates showed signs of stabilization, with Q2 and Q3 data indicating only marginal movements. This plateau suggests the market is entering a more predictable phase – due to factors such as declining Treasury yields, steady inventory and consistent demand – and creates opportunities for disciplined investors to lock in attractive yields. High-credit tenants continued to command premium pricing, underscoring the importance of credit quality in underwriting decisions. Mission-Critical Assets Took Center Stage Another notable trend in 2025 was the surge in demand for mission-critical properties. While these assets have long been foundational to the net lease market, investor interest increased as buyers prioritized operationally essential facilities with high tenant stickiness and limited relocation risk. As a result, investors gravitated toward property types such as specialized manufacturing, data centers and healthcare facilities. These types of mission-critical properties typically offer long-term stability and predictable cash flows given the tenant is likely to operate out of them for the long term, making them attractive in a volatile environment. Looking Ahead 2025 represented a much needed rebound for the net lease market. Interest rate cuts and cap rate stabilization restored confidence, reignited deal flow and brought investors back into play. While macroeconomic headwinds haven’t disappeared, the sector enters 2026 on solid footing and poised for continued growth.