Economic Outlook

Monday, March 9, 2009 

• Employment in basic sectors of the economy has decreased by large amounts. Construction, manufacturing, retail trade and finance have all been affected.
• Some exceptional cases are avoiding weaker activity, but the overall, unemployment is weak.
• The United State is losing its position as the leading center of automobile production.
• The new government has targets in needy plans raising the general level of activity, favoring middle and low income people, in contrast to the policy of the previous administration that favored the upper income classes, that failed to promote “triple-down” economic activity.
• At best, our model shows a weak tendency for the US economy to start growing again after mid-year, extending into the third and fourth quarters.
• At the same time that the US and European allies might start to recover, we can look for economic gains in Asia and Latin America at moderately positive levels.
• While the US struggles to realize some modest, positive gains, countries such as India and China are expected to retreat from gains of 8-10% to activity levels of 4-6%.

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